So I'm watching college football (let that sink in a second), and what should be South Carolina's marquee Thursday kick off against NC State features -
A Gator in the booth,
A Gator reporting from the sidelines,
And a Gator coaching the home team.
We Are Everywhere.
First thanks for the invite.
A couple quick hitters to start things off.
1. Ronnie Wilson has apparently been moved back to offense, according to Coach McCarney. This is big news to me because defensive tackle is our biggest area of need. You start moving players out of a position and logic dictates you feel good about the rest of the players there. Maybe that is just me being optimistic.
2. Damon McDaniel, formerly of FSU and now at Hampton University, has been suspended by the NCAA for the first 4 games of the year for academic fraud. This is a sign of things to come up in Tallahassee. Things are about to get ugly in Tallahassee.
In order to keep Saurian Sagacity firmly mired in the low standards our readership has come to expect, we would like to introduce our newest blogger Scully.
Scully is one of the most knowledgeable people I know regarding college football, and Gator football specifically. Scully has a wide range of interests, from recruiting to player profiles, and he definitely fills a need here at Saurian Sagacity. He always seems to have an inside source that tips him to some juicy tidbit before it appears in mainstream print.
So without putting to much pressure on him with that lofty introduction, and allowing for the growing pains that accompany someone new to the blogging format, we wish to welcome Scully to Saurian Sagacity. Treat him gently dear readers, at least for the first week. After that, all bets are off.
If anything I am a person of too many hobbies (and too few areas of expertise). One of the best things about fall, however, is the joining together of two of my favorite pastimes – college football and high quality beers.
If you are of the mind that “high quality” equals Budweiser, please stop reading now. However if you enjoy craft beers and trappist ales, and agree that merging Thursday night football with a fine sipping beer is as close to heaven as this earth allows, I urge you to join me for what I hope to be a weekly venture this season.
In choosing a beer for game watching, I will pay attention not only to beers I enjoy, but ones that are reasonably available. Everything I choose should be available at Total Wine and More, or other like outlets.
For the season kickoff and the inaugural night of Thursday football I will be drinking St. Bernardus Abt 12, the flagship of the St. Bernardus beers. St. Bernardus is brewed in that hallowed region of beer – Belgium – in the village of Watou in West Flanders.
Those Monks can brew!
Per the website description –The absolute top quality in the hierarchy of the St. Bernardus beers. It is also the beer with the highest alcohol content (10.50 %).A dark ivory coloured beer with a high fermentation. The show piece of the brewery. Thanks to its soft and unconditionally genuine aroma, the beer can be smoothly tasted.The Abt has a very fruity flavour.
Thursday, August 28That’s an unbelievable 14 games kicking off in the 2 hours between 7:00 and 9:00! Instead of sticking a toe in the water like college season beginnings of years past, we are getting an unblocked-linebacker-to-the-blindside smackdown right from the start!
7:00 PM ET Northeastern at Ball State
7:00 PM ET UTEP at Buffalo
7:00 PM ET Eastern Illinois at Central Michigan
7:00 PM ET Indiana State at Eastern Michigan
7:30 PM ET Hofstra at Connecticut
7:30 PM ET Jacksonville State at Georgia Tech
7:30 PM ET Vanderbilt at Miami (OH)
7:30 PM ET Eastern Kentucky at Cincinnati
7:30 PM ET Charleston Southern at Miami (FL)
7:30 PM ET Troy at Middle Tennessee
8:00 PM ET South Dakota State at Iowa State
8:00 PM ET North Carolina State at South Carolina
8:10 PM ET No. 23 Wake Forest at Baylor
9:00 PM ET Oregon State at Stanford
Over the Pylon. They have ranked Florida #1, for what reason can't hazard a guess. Perhaps they have more faith in our defense than I do. Anyway Over the Pylon dedicates itself to covering Kentucky and Ball State. I have listed them in the Gator Bait links under Ball State because, well because I love saying Ball State.
In looking at the 2008 football schedule I noticed an unusually large number of matchups between SEC and ACC teams in 2008, ten in fact.
So to stoke the natural rivalry between the two conferences, we are instituting the totally unofficial Saurian Sagacity SEC – ACC Cup Challenge. We will name a conference winner by season’s end.
The conference winner will be, quite simply, the conference that racks up the most wins.
Scheduled games –
August 28th – NC State at South Carolina
August 30th – Clemson v Alabama (Atlanta)
September 6th – Miami at Florida
Wake Forest at Mississippi
September 20th – Mississippi State at Georgia Tech
October 25th – Duke at Vanderbilt
November 29th – Florida at FSU
Georgia Tech at Georgia
Wake Forest at Vanderbilt
Clemson at South Carolina
May the best conference prevail.
A thoughtful commentator to my post regarding “The Contenders” mentions that it is possible to come from outside the top 20 in the preseason poll and win the Mythical National Championship.
He cites the case of Missouri last year as coming from outside the preseason top 25 to a number one ranking late in the season.
Conceptually I admit that my statement that teams outside the preseason top 20 have “zero” chance for a BCS title is not totally true. However, is the chance so low that my original premise holds?
What would it take for the ultimate long shot to make the BCS title game? For Cinderella to fit that glass slipper?
To figure this out, we are going to create an equation to calculate the odds. Please note that, while we will attempt to be reasonably accurate, a certain amount of speculation is necessary. And while we might not agree on all the points, I think the process will show the extreme long shot prospect of an outside-the-top-20 team.
History of the BCS Title Game
In the history of the BCS title games (since 1998), there has only been a single season that had no undefeated teams going into the bowl games (2003). By season, the number of undefeated teams, and teams names (once again pre-bowl) –
1998 – 2 (Tennessee, Tulane)
1999 – 3 (FSU, Marshall, Virginia Tech)
2000 – 1 (Oklahoma)
2001 – 1 (Miami)
2002 – 2 (Ohio State, Miami)
2003 – None
2004 – 5 (USC, Oklahoma, Auburn, Utah, Boise St)
2005 – 2 (Texas, USC)
2006 – 2 (Ohio State, Boise St)
2007 – 1 (Hawaii)
Last season, perhaps the strangest we have seen ever, with a 2 loss BCS title winner didn’t result in a team ranked worse than 10th preseason with a final shot at the BCS championship. And in the end 2-loss LSU’s preseason ranking of #2 certainly helped them stay near the top, and in contention.
Even in 2003, though the “national champion” remains contested, the BCS title game took place between preseason #1 (Oklahoma) and #15 (LSU). Thus even in a year when no one remained undefeated, the preseason 15th ranked team took the title.
For the most part, the preseason rankings of BCS title game teams have been remarkably consistent. The preseason rankings of the BCS title participants since 1998 –
1998 – 2 (FSU) v 9 (UT)
1999 – 1 (FSU) v 11 (VT)
2000 – 2 (FSU) v 19 (OK)
2001 – 2 (UM) v 5 (NEB)
2002 – 1 (UM) v 12 (OSU)
2003 – 1 (OK) v 15 (LSU)
2004 – 1 (USC) v 2 (OK)
2005 – 1 (USC) v 2 (TEX)
2006 – 1 (OSU) v 8 (UF)
2007 – 2 (LSU) v 10 (OSU)
Every year since the inception of the BCS the preseason number 1 or 2 ranked team has played for the title, and the highest contender (and eventual winner) was 19th Oklahoma. If you look at an average (best against worst), the average preseason ranks of BCS participants is 1.4 v 9.3, and the overall average preseason ranking of BCS participant is 5.4. Of the 1st or 2nd ranked teams that went to the BCS title game (12 total teams), 8 were undefeated, 3 had one loss ('98 FSU, '00 FSU, '03 OK) and one had two losses ('07 LSU).
Since we can virtually expect 1 of the top two teams is going to be playing in Miami for the BCS title early next year, what are the odds someone ranked worse than 20th in the preseason can occupy that other slot?
The Cinderella Scenarios
Let’s review the scenarios where this “Cinderella” (a team ranked worse than 20th) gets the BCS championship bid –
Undefeated Scenarios
The most obvious scenario would have Cinderella facing a one-loss or undefeated top ranked preseason team. We know that in the case of at least 2 top ranked teams going undefeated, this hypothetical Cinderella would almost certainly be shut out regardless of record (see Auburn '04). In 4 of our 10 BCS years at least 2 undefeated, preseason top 20 teams made it to bowl season, so we will say 40% of the time it doesn’t even matter if Cinderella is undefeated – she won’t get to play. (If she is a “mid-major”, non-BCS team she isn’t going to play regardless of record, so this only applies to major conference BCS teams). Thus we will set the first part of equation: X = 0.6 (where X is the chance that there is not 2 undefeated, preseason top 20 teams)
Chance that Cinderella goes undefeated
What is the chance we will see an undefeated major conference team ranked higher than 20th preseason? It is very hard to put odds on this, because it simply hasn’t happened in the BCS era (Hawaii, Boise State (twice), Utah, Marshall and Tulane have all run the table since 1998, but as non-BCS teams none were seriously considered for a BCS title slot). The very process of conference play and championships seems to limit the number of undefeated teams. Based on strict mathematics, and the assumption that this Cinderella has a 50/50 chance in every game, the chance of a team to go undefeated is 2 one hundredths of 1 percent (.50 to the 12th). If we look strictly at the total number of teams that have gone undefeated since 98’ (remembering again that no 20th or higher ranked team has done so), the odds were 1.6% (19 teams of 1190 total teams).
So for the sake of argument we are going to give Cinderella a much better chance than the strict odds dictate – say 1%. The second part of equation: U = 1% (Where U is the odds of Cinderella going unbeaten).
One Loss Scenario
What about Missouri last year – what about a 1-loss Cinderella team getting the shot?
Obviously there couldn’t be more than one undefeated team remaining (so the X factor is still exclusionary). Also, Cinderella would have to “jump” every higher ranked 1-loss team. So what is the typical number of undefeated or 1-loss teams Cinderella would have to deal with?
Going into the bowl games, the average number of BCS conference undefeated and/or one loss teams per year since 1998 is 4.5, with a high of 6 in 2000 and 2004, and a low of 2 last season. The hard part here is estimating where Cinderella might end up ranked – would she be ahead of the other 1-loss BCS teams? Missouri after week 13 last year was ranked ahead of two teams that had 1-loss and had themselves been higher ranked to start the season – West Virginia and Ohio State, who were 2 and 3 respectively. Kansas also had a single loss at that point, but had been beaten by that same Missouri team the week before. All other BCS teams had 2 or more losses.
So in order to snag the desired BCS slot, Cinderella has to have one loss and get ranked in the top two. The odds of a BCS team having a single loss aren’t all that much better than going undefeated, as only 32 BCS conference teams have had one loss in the past 10 years. If we assume 66 major conference teams (with ND), the odds have been 4.9% (32 of 660). However, the vast majority of those teams were ranked in the top 20 preseason, as only 10 teams ranked higher than 20th finished the regular season with 1 loss in the past 10 years, or 1.5% of the teams (10 of 660). For our purposes let’s split the difference, and say Cinderella has a 3.2% chance of having one loss. So, the next part of our equation: L = 3.2% (where L is the odds of being a one-loss team)
Finally, we need to make our best guess how likely Cinderella is to be ranked ahead of other 1 loss teams, while accounting for the presence of no more than 1 zero loss teams. We know there are an average of 4.5 zero and one loss teams per season (which we will round to 5), and Cinderella would need to be ranked ahead of at least 3 of them. Let’s say this can happen 40% of the time (20% chance to occupy either the first or second of 5 slots). This is probably generous to Cinderella considering the others probably started higher ranked to begin with. So we have our last part of the equation: R = 0.4 (where R is the chance Cinderella is favorably ranked)
Our equation
(U + (L x R)) x X
Where U is the odds of Cinderella being undefeated, L the odds of Cinderella having 1 loss, R is the odds a 1-loss Cinderella will be favorably ranked, and X is the odds there are not two undefeated teams. (We multiply X against the whole equation because if there are two undefeated preseason ranked teams Cinderella will get "Auburned".)
With our numbers
(1% + (3.2% x .4)) x .6 = 1.37 %
So there you have it, and I stand corrected that it is impossible. At 1.37%, we can expect to see a single team ranked worse than 20th in the preseason appear in a BCS title game in the next 73 years.
Postscript & Takeaways
Is the chance really exactly 1.37% ? Almost certainly not. But the exercise does show the following emphatically –
- In order for a Cinderella to make the BCS title game they need to be undefeated or, at the worst, no more than one loss.
- No BCS conference team outside the top 20 has been undefeated in the past ten years.
- The chance of having even one loss on a season is slim – 4.9% for major conference teams over the past 10 years, and only 1.5% for teams not ranked in the top 20 in the preseason.
- Even if a one loss Cinderella exists, they have to be favorably ranked to have a shot – an iffy proposition at best.
- Regardless whether our Cinderella is undefeated or a 1 loss team, if there are 2 undefeated preseason top 20 teams (this has occurred 40% of the time in the past 10 years), she isn’t going to the BCS title game.
- Non BCS teams, although having 6 undefeated seasons in the past 10 years, don’t make BCS title games.
I stand by my original proposition - it simply isn't going to happen.
Well, it's finally here: the beginning of another football season. We've awoken from our summer long slumber and are ready to analyze the happenings of the season in annoyingly minute detail.
Thursday night, the Gators' week 2 opponent, Miami, kicks it all off against Charleston Southern. They will be doing so without the services of redshirt freshman QB Robert Marve because Hurricanes head coach Randy Shannon has suspended him for the game. That means the Canes will be going with true freshman Jacory Harris.
I find it hard to believe that Harris would have been the starter right off the bat and most observers thought Marve had the inside track for the job. So Marve's suspension obviously doesn't help the Canes at all. Shannon will have to decide whether to start Harris again against the Gators in Gainesville or go with Marve.
I'm glad we're facing these guys in the second week and not the seventh.
UPDATE:
Just saw on the late news that Marve is one of SEVEN players suspended for the opener. Not only that, Shannon announced that Marve would indeed be the starter for the year. That means that when the Canes take the field against the Gators on the 6th of September that Marve will not have taken a snap.
Once again I was asked to appear on the CFB Weekly podcast hosted by Aaron Rennie to discuss the Gators as we get ready for 2008.
Click the button below to hear the show. I'm the third guest on the episode.
Before anyone mentions it, I misspoke when I talked about Tebow breaking the NCAA record for rushing TDs this season. I meant SEC record.
In January of 2007 I did an analysis of Gator games from 2005 and 2006 to see how the clock rules that were implemented in 2006 affected the length of the games and also the number of plays run. What my unscientific analysis showed was that the rules shaved about a minute off of the games but resulted in 8 less plays per game. Presumably advertisers got the time that was saved by having less actual football being played.
The rules were modified once again going into last season and I had been procrastinating at doing the analysis again to see what happened. Tonight I finally did it.
I looked at 11 Gators regular season games (the opener against WKU was suspended in fourth quarter due to lightning so I'm excluding that game from the analysis).
I found that the length of games increased by more than 12 minutes to 210 minutes (3:30:00) from 2006 to 2007.
The average number of plays increased from 140 in 2006 to 156 in 2007. In 2005 the average number of plays was 148.
The amount of time per play decreased from 1:25 in 2006 to 1:21 in 2007.
In short, the changes to clock rules last year gave us longer games. The number of plays run during the games went up accounting for part of that increased length but it looks like advertisers didn't give back any of their time to deliver us more football. Instead they tacked the time gains they made in 2006 onto the 2007 games, accounting for most of the increase.
Let’s cut to the chase – who is it going to be?
It’s often said “Preseason polls don’t matter”.
Actually, they matter almost more than anything.
Sure they rarely get the top team right, at least as far as predicting the eventual mythical national champion goes. What preseason polls do accomplish, however, with an almost ironclad precision, is the elimination of the vast majority of the teams from any “national championship” consideration.
Speaking to a near statistical certainty, 100 of the 119 BCS teams already have no chance of winning the 2008. As in nil. Zip. Nada.
Who are the fortunate 19? Well, take a look at the top 20 in the preseason Coaches Poll, with one exception –
1. Georgia (22) 0-0 1,438
2. USC (14) 0-0 1,430
3. Ohio State (14) 0-0 1,392
4. Oklahoma (3) 0-0 1,329
5. Florida (5) 0-0 1,293
6. LSU (3) 0-0 1,163
7. Missouri 0-0 1,143
8. West Virginia 0-0 1,008
9. Clemson 0-0 999
10. Texas 0-0 979
11. Auburn 0-0 888
12. Wisconsin 0-0 747
13. Kansas 0-0 714
14. Texas Tech 0-0 644
15. Virginia Tech 0-0 568
16. Arizona State 0-0 560
17. Brigham Young 0-0 547
18. Tennessee 0-0 506
19. Illinois 0-0 422
20. Oregon 0-0 399
The exception is BYU. Sure they eked out a “national” title back way back 1984, but the current BCS system makes it abundantly clear they have no chance of playing in this year’s title game, undefeated or not. Why? Because there is a virtual certainty that there will be either 1 or more undefeated teams in the 16 ranked ahead than them, or at least two 1 loss teams in the same group. And two one-loss teams from the major conferences listed ahead of BYU will play for the title before an undefeated BYU will. By way of example, an undefeated Hawaii was kept from the BCS title game by a one single loss and one twice beaten major conference team last season. BYU can hope for a BCS bid, at the very best – but I’ll state it with certainty here – they will not be BCS champs.
The choice of the top 20 is hardly arbitrary either, for in the past 15 years, only a single team has come from a preseason ranking as high as 19th to win the MNC, Oklahoma in 2000. We will arbitrarily throw in Oregon anyway at 20th.
So which of these 19 has the best chance? Well based on our research into defense winning championships, we know that teams that can hold their opponents to an average of less than 14 points per game have the best chance. The standard deviation of the last 8 BCS title winners in defensive points allowed is 3.5, so a range of anywhere from 10.5 to 17.5. (Obviously less than 10.5 wouldn’t hurt either). 68% of BCS title winners should fall within this range.
Let’s take a look at the "fortunate 19’s" defensive scoring last season –
Ohio St. 12.8
Southern California 16
Virginia Tech 16.1
Kansas 16.4
Auburn 16.9
West Virginia 18.1
Clemson 18.7
LSU 19.9
Georgia 20.2
Oklahoma 20.3
Illinois 21.8
Arizona St. 22.5
Wisconsin 23.2
Missouri 23.3
Oregon 23.6
Texas 25.3
Florida 25.5
Texas Tech 25.9
Tennessee 27.3
Only the top 5 meet our stated criteria (remember – LSU played 2 overtime games, skewing their results).
Now comes the speculative part – which of these teams can we expect to improve on their defensive scoring. And, which might regress.
Obviously this is open to debate and interpretation. I like to look at the number of returning starters on defense. Florida last year had only really 2 returning defensive starters, and we regressed a miserable 47% from 2006 to 2007. From the best information I can find, the teams have the following in the way of returning starters on defense –
Missouri 10
Wisconsin 9
Georgia 9
Kansas 9
Ohio St. 9
Texas Tech 8
Florida 8
Clemson 8
Tennessee 7
Oregon 7
Arizona St. 7
Auburn 7
Southern California 7
Illinois 6
Oklahoma 5
LSU 5
Texas 4
West Virginia 4
Virginia Tech 4
Here’s guessing that Oklahoma, LSU, Texas, WVU and VT will regress on defense. Since the only one of this group to come in less than 17.5 last year was VT, and by just over a point in that case, I’m going to toss all of them from serious contention, leaving (with returning starters on D) -
Missouri 10
Wisconsin 9
Georgia 9
Kansas 9
Ohio St. 9
Texas Tech 8
Florida 8
Clemson 8
Tennessee 7
Oregon 7
Arizona St. 7
Auburn 7
Southern California 7
Illinois 6
Next, are the remaining teams that met the criteria last year likely to regress?
Ohio St. – if anything they will be better.
Southern California – probably about the same
Kansas – perhaps better
Auburn – probably the same.
Thus the top 4 are solid BCS contenders.
Now we need to ask ourselves, can the other over 17.5 point teams IMPROVE on defense and get them below where then need to be. My opinions –
Missouri – with 10 returning on D 23.3 ppg last season, definitely
Wisconsin – 9 returners, 23.2 ppg, probably
Georgia – 9 returners, 20.2 ppg, mark it down as highly likely
Texas Tech – 8 returners, but to go from 25.9 to 17.5? Call it a maybe
Florida - 8 returning starters, same problem as Texas Tech at 25.5, maybe.
Clemson – with 8 back, and 18.7 ppg last season, definitely.
Tennessee – 7 back on D, but a terrible 27.3 ppg last year. I don’t see it.
Oregon -7 back on D, has to improve from 23.6. Maybe
Arizona St. – 7 back on D, 22.5 ppg last season. A decent maybe.
Let’s eliminate Tennessee here.
Our list, by conference and my guess of their defensive strength in conference –
Big Ten
Ohio St.
Wisconsin
Pac Ten
Southern California
Arizona St.
Oregon
Big 12
Kansas
Missouri
Texas Tech
SEC
Auburn
Georgia
Florida
ACC
Clemson
12 serious contenders of 120 prospects. We’ve eliminated 90% of the teams.
Not good enough for you? Well then, from here forward is strictly speculation –
I think Ohio State will sweep the Big Ten easily. The Buck’s entire season will likely come down to the game at USC. If Ohio State loses there, the stigma of the last 2 BCS blowouts will keep them from the title game. However, I don’t think they will lose.
Southern Cal should win the Pac Ten, but Arizona State may be a little better than anyone gives them credit for, and could challenge the Trojans.
Everyone seems to think Oklahoma's a lock for the Big 12. I’m going with Missouri to win the Big 12 over Oklahoma in the championship game.
The SEC will be the usual bloodbath. I do not see an undefeated team coming from the conference. And in a year that should see at least 2 undefeated teams, maybe more, I think it costs the conference.
Clemson is an interesting situation. With the basket case that is the ACC, I think they might run the table. Wins over SEC foes Alabama and South Carolina will give them the “cred” they need to jump a one loss SEC team. I know this team seems historically cursed, but if any year is there year, it is this year.
Ohio State verses Clemson for the BCS title.
Take it with a grain of salt.
Update: From the commentaries some folks evidently don’t like my BCS prediction.
I don’t really “like” it either, as in the preseason too much remains uncertain. Hence the "grain of salt" comment.
However, I stick by my assessment that defense matters most, and that of the 12 I list as contenders, 2 will be in the BCS title game. I plan on refining my choices as the actual defenses make themselves subject to examination.
But as far as predicting goes on a defensive basis, remember I pointed out after week 2 that Louisville was going to lose several games, when they were still undefeated . It may seem obvious now, but at that point they were ranked 9th nationally.
I also pointed out – while these teams were undefeated in late September – that Cal, Oregon, Kentucky and Nebraska were all headed for disappointment, and that Texas, Wisconsin, Florida and even USC weren’t likely to run the table based on their defensive stats at that point.
My prediction for the BCS winner as of September 27th 2007? Well, I said in the same article that I would “mortgage the house with a bet on LSU” in the title game.
Sadly, I didn’t make that bet. My wife didn't let me.
Brian, the maestro and fearless BlogPoll leader of MGoBlog, commented somewhat critically on my preseason BlogPoll with the following –
Saurian Sagacity takes the first Mr. Bold of the year for such oddities as QB-less LSU #2, QB-less and OL-less Michigan #8(!?!?!?!?!?!), Florida State #10(!?), Miami #15, Notre Dame #16... is this poll from 1988?
Well now, it seems Jeff Sagarin – he of BCS Computer formula contribution – is out with his preseason poll, which is -
1 Southern California
2 LSU
3 Ohio State
4 Oklahoma
5 Florida
6 Virginia Tech
7 West Virginia
8 Texas
9 Georgia
10 Auburn
11 Michigan
12 Oregon
13 Tennessee
14 California
15 Louisville
16 Penn State
17 Missouri
18 Boston College
19 Clemson
20 Wisconsin
21 Arizona State
22 BYU
23 Texas Tech
24 Oregon State
25 Florida State
Ha! Take that will you! Seems ole’ Jeff and I have the same number 1, 2 and 3 (with maligned LSU taking that 2 spot). Not to mention Sagarin has Michigan at 11 (versus my 8), and FSU ranked at 25th. That's right - those 'Nolies are ranked, dammit!
Did I mention Sagarin is a contributor to the BCS? Who’s laughing now?
Oh yeah, that’s right – we practically made a career of challenging his methodology last season, at this link and too many others to mention.
Well just for the record, I was against Sagarin before I was for him. Or something.
You know, we here at Saurian Sagacity have taken a fair amount of ribbing from Brian at MgoBlog for Mergz' blogpoll methods. It strikes me as odd that someone who goes through the trouble of creating a poll of bloggers, presumably because bloggers can do it better, would belittle thinking that attempts to approach the idea of a pre-season poll with some logic and homework.
It's worth repeating that Mergz doesn't put any stock whatsoever into preseason polls but that since we are participating in the blogpoll we are agreeing to submit a preseason ballot. Rather than submit a totally opinion-based ballot (what voters in the A.P. and coaches polls do - and apparently the other voters in the blogpoll) Mergz has tried to bring some objectivity to the exercise.
The basic premise of Mergz' preseason blogpoll methodology is that schools that have acquired superior talent over the last four years should be the most successful. Simple enough. Now of course there's huge complications. Who determines the talent level that a school has acquired? Mergz uses data from rivals.com. We can argue the merits of recruiting information services and which one is better but the truth is that these services have dedicated themselves to exactly the kind of evaluation that neither Mergz or myself could ever hope to engage in. And their reputation depends on them being right. But still there are issues. Even if we accept that Rivals (or Scout.com) have done their homework properly there's a lot of variables to account for. What if you recruit a 5-star player who never pans out because of academics or off-field antics? Also, a particular concern I've had with Mergz' model is that it gives equal weight to each of the last four recruiting classes. But logic dictates that upperclassmen usually have a greater impact on a team's success or failure than underclassmen. Of course there are huge exceptions (Tim Tebow) but the fact is that it's generally considered good to have a team loaded with senior talent.
All of this is to say that we recognize that there is no magic bullet in predicting success before a single down has been played. We are only attempting to make sense of a random mess that is college football in week zero.
I decided to look back at the preseason ballot we submitted for the blogpoll last year and compare it to not only the final A.P. poll for the year but also the preseason blogpoll.
As it turns out, 14 of the teams we said were top 25 ended the season in the A.P.'s top 25. In contrast, 15 of the blogpoll's top 25 ended up in the A.P. top 25.
Five of the teams we picked for our top 10 ended up in the A.P. top ten. The blogpoll had six top ten teams make into the A.P.'s final top ten.
Our model provided some comical results. For example we had Florida State at number 9 and of course they finished off of the chart. But the blogpoll collective had Louisville at 10 and they likewise finished out of the top 25.
For the teams we correctly placed in the top 25, I found that we missed slotting teams in the right place by an average of 6 slots. A similar analysis showed that the blogpoll missed by an average of 5.4 slots.
In sum, the collective wisdom of blogpollers was marginally more predictive than Mergz' recruiting based model which he has tweaked this year. By no stretch of the imagination was our exercise an embarrassment. We'll take the ribbing for now, but I can assure you that I'll be here to check whether their guffaws were warranted or not.
I have to admit I haven't been following the travails of Florida State football closely. But my friend - let's call him Jimbo’s Outclause - has. According to Jimbo, FSU might be in a enormous amount of trouble.
From my friend -
"It appears as though the NCAA is close to issuing its penalty report on the Indiana infractions; after just issuing the penalty report to New Mexico on its infractions. From what I can tell from the New Mexico penalty report, this is not a good year to be in front of the infraction committee. For those who don’t know, New Mexico’s infractions were similar to FSU, albeit on a lesser scale. The New Mexico football staff attempted to “help” 4 or 5 students (or prospective students) and the loss was 5 scholarships per year for 3 years. That means no more than 20 new scholarships in any given year and no more than 80 existing scholarships in any given year during the period. If you equate New Mexico’s punishment to what has been reported from FSU, the penalty to FSU could be staggering. Remember FSU’s 2nd report (the 1st was laughed at) indicated that there were upwards of 60 student-athletes involved and since FSU has decided they are immune from the Sunshine Laws (RELEASE THE DOCUMENTS) no one is sure if the NCAA’s Notice of Allegations (NOA) found more. Although…….
It has been implied by people that attended the recent FSU booster meeting in Orlando that the NOA includes a charge of lack of institutional control (LOIC), which is the great accelerator of NCAA penalties. A charge of LOIC, if true, would clarify the statements made by Col. Spetman at this booster meeting that the loss of football scholarships would be between 2-10 football scholarships per year and that everyone needs to prepare themselves for the fact that the NCAA might make an example of them.
To help understand the magnitude of what it would mean to lose 10 scholarships per year for 3 years check this out:
2008 – FSU has 80 players on scholarship with 17 seniors. Typical annual attrition is 3-5 players a year and just to be nice I will say they lose only 3 years that are not seniors on an annual basis.
Since the penalty is 10, FSU can only sign 15 players, so 80 less the 20 (17+3) = 60 + 15 signees = 75
2009 – 75 players on scholarship with 20 seniors plus 3 lost from attrition.
FSU can only sign 15, so 75 less 23 (20+3) = 52 + 15 signees = 67
2010 – 67 players on scholarship with 13 seniors plus 3 lost from attrition.
FSU can only sign 15, so 67 less 16 (13+3) = 51 + 15 signees = 66
Although the penalty would end, in this example after the 2010 season, they are still bound by the 25 signees per year rule. I believe the 2011 team would have in the neighborhood of 28 seniors, so if you add in attrition of 3, FSU would lose 31 players. 66 – 31 = 35 + 25 = 60. They wouldn’t be able to get back to 85 players on scholarship until after the 2012 season. "
Florida State is certainly acting as if it has something to hide here. We shall see soon enough.
Why Florida went 9-4 last year, and why even that was a miracle
After examining the statistics that are most likely to be held by BCS Champions, I decided to take a look at how much the most shared statistic – a low number of defensive points surrendered per game – might change on a year-over-year basis. In that way I hoped to be able to see who might be strong in that category based on last year’s data.
The long and short of it – this statistic can change dramatically in a year.
Buffalo, of all schools, improved the most from 2006 to 2007, with their scoring defense going from 35.9 ppg to 18.5, or a 94.05% improvement. The top ten by improvement were –
1 Buffalo 94.05%
2 Temple 57.03%
3 Kansas 55.49%
4 Connecticut 42.11%
5 Louisiana Tech 35.83%
6 New Mexico 26.32%
7 North Carolina 24.49%
8 Illinois 22.94%
9 West Virginia 19.89%
10 Air Force 19.43%
Many of these schools, like Kansas and U Conn, were among the surprise teams of 2007.
The ten defenses which regressed the most (by national ranking) –
110 Central Mich. -39.57%
111 Nevada -40.37%
112 Miami (Fla.) -40.38%
113 North Texas -43.90%
114 Navy -44.78%
115 Brigham Young -46.74%
116 Florida -47.06%
117 Wisconsin -47.84%
118 Louisville -48.09%
119 Nebraska -51.72%
Pretty much a list of the horrible, including the last two in Louisville and Nebraska.
And there are our Gators at 116th, with a defense that went from 13.5 ppg to 25.5. Among this group, a 9-4 record is pretty damn good.
I see I’m getting a number of referrals from MGoBlog regarding my preseason BlogPoll, and my honorary spot as “Mr. Bold”.
I discussed my preseason rankings here.
Let me also add the following – I don’t think preseason polls are worth a hill-of-spit, and in fact I think they fly directly in the face of equity and competitive balance. Consider this – no team ranked worse than 19th preseason (Oklahoma in 2000) has ever won the BCS title, nor a “consensus” “national title” in at least the past 15 years.
So for those teams not ranked in the top 20 (and for those not part of a “major” conference) – see ya, bye-bye, thanks for playing. You have ZERO shot at a BCS title in 2008. And unless you get extremely lucky a-la Oklahoma 2000 (everyone in front of you loses), you really don’t have a shot if you are not in the top 10.
So, in regard to my poll, and the admittedly unlikely prospect Michigan, FSU or Notre Dame will do anything worthwhile this year, I say – Let’s see the actual games.
Then, let’s decide who is best.
It’s the Defense, stupid!
After my critique of ESPN’s “analysis” of the commonalities of BCS title winners, I decided to take a look at the real statistical characteristics that make up a BCS champion. Unlike ESPN, I wasn’t looking for any “magic” characteristic and matching number that supposedly decides a champion, rather I was looking for the average national ranking in team statistics, and averages of those statistics. I choose team statistics rather than individual statistics, as I don’t think it makes a significant difference whether a team has a 15 yards per catch receiver or not.
I looked at every BCS title game winner this decade (century, if you will), so our 8 team’s worth of data is more inclusive than ESPN’s last 5 years “analysis”.
The following is the list of statistics, arranged from the highest average ranking to lowest. In this way we can see what statistical measurement the successful teams had in common that ranked highest among their peers in every year since 2000 –
The top 3 highest average ranked categories jump out immediately as defensively oriented, especially Scoring Defense. Over the past 8 years, the eventual BCS title winner has averaged a scoring defense ranked 5.63, and given up only a meager 14.03 points per game. The worst ranking by a team was last year’s LSU Tigers at 17th overall and 19.9 ppg, but that statistic is skewed by the two overtime scorefests in which they participated. LSU in 03’ and Miami in 01’ were 1st ranked in this category.
Pass Efficiency Defense and Total Defense likewise are typically top 10 statistics nationally for BCS winners. The worst in Pass Efficiency Defense over the time period was Ohio State in 02’ (32nd, all others were top 10), and the worst in Total Defense was also the 2002 Buckeyes at 23rd (once again all others were top 10).
Passing Efficiency, Scoring Offense, Rushing Defense and Turnover Margin are all fall within the average top 20 rankings nationally of BCS title teams. After that, the presumed relevance to success becomes less certain. Not surprisingly, Punt Returns and Kickoff Returns don’t appear that important to title winners – very surprisingly passing offense also appears of low importance on a national scale to the eventual BCS Champ (giving somewhat immediate lie to ESPN’s focus on 3000 yards passing as a critical statistic).
In fact when you look at the last 8 BCS winners, not a single one had a passing offense ranked in the top 10 nationally by year’s end. The worst of the time period was Ohio State in 02’ at 92nd nationally, the best USC in 04’ and Oklahoma in 00’ tied at 13th nationally. LSU last year was 58th.
By calculating the standard deviation of ranking for each statistic we can project the range within which 68.27% ( 1 standard deviation) of national champions should rank for each characteristic.
Or how Demetrius Byrd won the National Championship for LSU
ESPN’s latest issue of “The Mag” has this year’s college preview, and Georgia is their number one team.
I have absolutely no problem with that.
However, I have serious reservations about how they determined the Dawgs would win the BCS title. No, “reservations” isn’t even fair – their “Eliminator” process is downright idiotic.
According to their “statistical wringer”, the past 5 BCS champions have the following in common –
- Have at least 1 receiver with an average of at least 15 yards per catch (30 minimum);
- Recorded 33 or more sacks;
- Passed for more than 3000 yards;
- Allowed less than 20 points per game.
Conceptually, I will agree that, at least the last 3, and most probably the last 2, could be correlated on their face to success.
And, just perhaps, one could cite having a “big play” receiver as causally related to success. But in all (and obvious) likelihood we have an obvious case of data fitting here – or, more simply, the only 4 statistical characteristics the last 5 winners had in common.
ESPN doesn’t stop there. They then take their top 10 teams, and apply their “Eliminator” to each stat, eliminating those that they surmise won’t meet all of their 4 critical criteria. At the end, after deciding that only Georgia will meet all 4 in 2008, they pre-anoint Georgia the BCS title winner.
Where to begin to deal with something so moronic?
First, let’s look at the teams that failed only one of their 4 criteria – USC, Oklahoma, Florida and Ohio State. USC and Oklahoma, according to ESPN, both won’t hold opponents to under 20 points per game in 2008. To which I say – Bullshit. USC held opponents to 16 points per game in 2007, and Oklahoma 20.3. So ESPN is saying USC will be significantly worse on defense, and Oklahoma can’t improve by 0.3 ppg. I’ll take a bet right now that both will be less than 20 ppg defensively by year’s end.
Ohio State is said to be unable to have more than 3000 yards passing. Todd Boeckman had 2379 yards last season, and the team 2565, so they may not.
Lastly Florida is said to be unable to make the 33 sack mark in 2008, though ESPN has UF (somewhat curiously) holding opponents to less than 20 points per game. Last season, with a very green defense, Florida managed 28 sacks. Here’s betting the Gators make at least 33 this year.
Of course giving this analysis to such a fundamentally flawed system is more than it deserves. From a statistical standpoint ESPN’s system is rife with errors, including “false causality”, or the assumption that "A" causes "B". In this case, ESPN wants us to believe that these 4 data points (together “A”) necessarily cause a team to be a champion (“B”). Not to mention that 2 of the statistics – the number of sacks and points per game – are themselves closely correlated, and likely redundant. (For the 30 teams that recorded more than 33 sacks in 2007, their average points per game on defense was 21.97. For the other 89 teams with less than 33 sacks, the average ppg on defense was 28.99.)
To examine what a fine piece of data mining ESPN undertook, I took a look at how many teams met the last 3 criteria in this past season (sacks, 3000 yards passing, less than 20 ppg)– and their were 3. LSU (the MNC), Southern Cal and
Cincinnati.
And in looking at last year’s Bearcats, we see why ESPN choose that “15 yards per catch)” number. They chose it because Cincinnati receiver Marshawn Gilyard came up just short – at 14.9 ypc. So according to ESPN, it was that 0.1 yard Gilyard didn’t have that kept Cincy from great things.
Likewise with USC, whose Fred Davis came up short at 14.2 ypc.
LSU had one receiver who met the criteria – Demetrius Byrd, with a gaudy 17.7 yards per catch. So it wasn’t Doucet and his 57 receptions that made LSU “national champs”, or QB Matt Flynn (he only had 2407 passing, with the rest coming from Perrilloux). According to ESPN, it was Byrd’s 35 receptions that pushed the Tigers over the top to that little crystal trophy.
And just to show how much data fitting ESPN did, the 20 ppg on defense was no accident either – because LSU had 19.9 in 2007. If they had chosen say – 21 ppg, then Boston College and Oklahoma would have slipped under their criteria last season.
Not to mention ESPN only chose “the last 5 years” for their data sample, as it fails quickly when applied to the 2002 “national champion” Ohio State Buckeyes, who passed for only 2425 yards on the season. So passing yards only started being significant since 2003.
What about Georgia last year?
One would think ESPN made their estimations that the Dawgs would win it all based on last year’s evidence a bit, wouldn’t you? Well, apparently not.
The Dawgs had two 15 yard plus receivers in Sean Bailey and Mohamed Masoquoi, and there is no reason to think Masoquoi won’t do it again. And in the sack department, with 42, Georgia should pass the 33.
But last year, Georgia had 20.2 points per game on defense, just shy of the magic 20.
What’s more, Stafford only passed for 2523 yards last season, 19% shy of ESPN’s magic mark. With Moreno on the ground I find it hard to believe he hits 3000 this season.
So, to recap ESPN’s “analysis”, Georgia is going to achieve the 2 of the 4 “critical” stats it failed last season, while USC is going to fail the one it achieved easily? (16.0 ppg).
So this is what the World Wide Leader passes as analysis. Color me unimpressed.
The Sunday Morning Quarterback, utilizing his usual insight and superhuman level of college football knowledge, has assembled a top 25 preseason ranking for his own BlogPoll vote based on a detailed analysis of each college team.
We will do no such thing here.
As a statistical based analysis geek (speaking for myself), for our preseason top 25 last year I merely used a compilation of accumulated 4 years recruiting talent of college teams per Rivals.
This didn’t result in a terrible preseason poll by any means. My preseason number 1 (USC) ended up postseason number 2, and I had “national champion” LSU 6th. I had Georgia preseason 3rd (right where they ended up), Oklahoma also correct at 8th, and Tennessee and Auburn among those within a few places of their final spot. Errors included Florida (I had them 2nd), Michigan (5th for me), and ranking FSU and Miami in the top 10 (ugh).
This season I am going to take a slightly different, though entirely statistical based, tact. Instead of using accumulated talent, I have created a equation that combines the average talent ranking of the 110 teams for which I have data combined with their win-loss percentage from the previous season. In this way I hope to capture not only the talent level, but the recent effectiveness with which that talent has played.
USC is number one in my poll using this method. They get there as follows –
4.01 (the average “star” rating of USC players per Rivals) + 0.846 (USC’s win percentage last season) = 4.856 (USC’s total score)
Introducing my top 25 (with totals) –
1 Southern Cal 4.856
2 LSU 4.555
3 Ohio State 4.519
4 Florida 4.440
5 Georgia 4.439
6 Texas 4.404
7 Oklahoma 4.376
8 Michigan 4.227
9 Tennessee 4.067
10 Florida State 4.046
11 Auburn 3.980
12 Clemson 3.972
13 Alabama 3.948
14 Penn State 3.897
15 Miami-FL 3.847
16 Notre Dame 3.785
17 Virginia Tech 3.763
18 California 3.721
19 Oregon 3.717
20 UCLA 3.717
21 Missouri 3.695
22 Kansas 3.683
23 Arizona State 3.679
24 South Carolina 3.660
25 Nebraska 3.639
How accurate will this prove to be? I have no earthly idea, but perhaps no more inaccurate than any other preseason effort. In looking at the results, I don’t particularly like FSU at 10th. I do think Florida coming in .001 better than Georgia is about perfect, however.
What is notable about this is how teams, at least conceptually, can be compared. While the aforementioned Florida and Georgia are for all purposes equal, USC is 6.6% “better” than LSU by total score.
So there it is. Perfect? By no means.
But better than anything else I could hope to guess my way to.
And since the work is done, the other teams by ranking are-
26 Boston College 3.616
27 Texas A&M 3.601
28 Arkansas 3.558
29 Illinois 3.557
30 Virginia 3.530
31 Texas Tech 3.530
32 Wisconsin 3.525
33 West Virginia 3.521
34 Oklahoma State 3.506
35 Maryland 3.484
36 Arizona 3.459
37 Pittsburgh 3.372
38 Iowa 3.353
39 Oregon State 3.310
40 Georgia Tech 3.291
41 Louisville 3.290
42 Michigan State 3.288
43 Colorado 3.264
44 Purdue 3.250
45 North Carolina 3.233
46 Mississippi State 3.218
47 Brigham Young 3.199
48 Rutgers 3.195
49 Kansas State 3.167
50 Hawaii 3.143
51 Ole Miss 3.143
52 Utah 3.137
53 South Florida 3.135
54 NC State 3.117
55 TCU 3.085
56 Washington 3.080
57 UCF 3.057
58 Wake Forest 3.050
59 Boise State 3.044
60 Fresno State 2.990
61 Kentucky 2.988
62 Stanford 2.981
63 Northwestern 2.945
64 Southern Miss. 2.921
65 Connecticut 2.897
66 Cincinnati 2.894
67 Washington St. 2.844
68 Troy State 2.834
69 Tulsa 2.827
70 New Mexico 2.775
71 Indiana 2.736
72 East Carolina 2.725
73 Houston 2.718
74 Minnesota 2.716
75 Memphis 2.711
76 Iowa State 2.703
77 Vanderbilt 2.677
78 Syracuse 2.649
79 San Diego St. 2.631
80 Baylor 2.620
81 Toledo 2.602
82 Louisiana Tech 2.569
83 Wyoming 2.562
84 Miami-OH 2.532
85 Ohio 2.515
86 Middle Tenn St. 2.507
87 Nevada 2.499
88 Western Michigan 2.477
89 San Jose St. 2.474
90 Louisiana-Mon. 2.468
91 Marshall 2.428
92 Air Force 2.412
93 Duke 2.393
94 UAB 2.379
95 Temple 2.366
96 Eastern Michigan 2.353
97 Colorado State 2.340
98 Tulane 2.336
99 Kent 2.335
100 UNLV 2.327
101 Rice 2.325
102 Louisiana-Laf. 2.320
103 New Mexico St. 2.273
104 North Texas 2.267
105 SMU 2.251
106 Navy 2.243
107 Northern Illinois 2.224
108 Utah State 2.179
109 Idaho 2.131
110 Army 1.910
Watch your back Herschel Walker
A review of the most recent SEC record book shows a number of new entries for Gator quarterback Tim Tebow after the 2007 season, including –
Yards Gained – Season
1. Tim Tebow - 4,181 (2007)
2. Tim Couch – 4,151 (1998)
Yards Per Game – Season
4. 341.7 – Tim Couch 1997
5. 321.6 – Tim Tebow 2007
6. 316.6 – Eric Zeier 1993
Touchdown Responsibility – Game
1. (several tied with 7, including) Tim Tebow, Florida v. South Carolina 2007
Touchdown Responsibility – Season
1. 55 – Tim Tebow 2007
2. 43 – Andre Woodson 2007
Most Touchdowns (not passing) – Season
1. 24 – Shaun Alexander 1999
2. 23 – Tim Tebow 2007
However, Tebow’s record that really intrigues me from 2007 was –
Touchdowns Rushing – Season
1. 23 –Tim Tebow 2007
2. 19 – Garrison Hearst 1992
_ 19 – Shaun Alexander 1999
_ 19 LeBrandon Toefield 2001
Which leads us to this –
Touchdowns Rushing - CAREER
Cast out ye Kegs and Quarters
The original Saint Bernard of Clairvaux (1090-1153) was the primary builder of the reforming Cistercian monastic order. Much of his life was spent preaching the Second Crusade, at the behest of the Pope.
Saint Bernard of Gainesville has his own crusade.
Apparently efforts to stamp out all use of alcohol by President Bernie Machen haven’t been enough to date, despite his efforts in the past which have included –
- Suspending the popular Lex & Terry syndicated radio show on WRUF, the campus radio station, because of its "Drunk Bitch Friday" segment;
- Banning liquor advertising at campus venues;
- Banning liquor advertising on university television productions;
-Speaking out strongly against a proposal to allow bars to stay open to 3 a.m..
Machen also said he “Would like to see local bars drop their alcohol specials and wants events such as Gator Stompin' ended.”
Also, since Machen has taken the helm as the President of the university there have also been a number of restrictions placed on tailgating.
Alas, these efforts were apparently in vain. The consumption of alcohol at Florida did not cease. And now, most shamefully, this - Florida was recently anointed the “Number One Party School” per the Princeton review.
This apparently has taken St. Bernie’s crusade to a higher, and infinitely more absurd, level.
Florida is now proposing a ban on “drinking games” and “kegs” in the new student conduct code.
Sure the proposed regulations would only apply to “on-campus” activities, unless the off campus activities led to “injuries or property destruction”. (In my day, every party worth attending led to at least one of those, if not both).
Just picture the scene, with grim inquisitors of honor court wringing confessions from heretical students –
“Admit it, and cleanse your soul. You played a game of quarters last Friday, didn’t you!”
The proposals are ridiculous on so many levels, the least of which is enforcement. What exactly constitutes a “drinking game”? And what level of proof is required to show that one was engaging in one?
As for the keg restriction, certainly no one would ever find a way around that, eh?
One can imagine a situation in which college students are relegated to consuming cheap shots and cheaper beer in the can, which is apparently within the “letter of the law” here. And as long as no one plays “beer pong”, but merely drinks beer while playing ping-pong, as is well.
Ultimately the Second Crusade preached by St. Bernard of Clairvaux was a failure. I won’t be the least bit surprised when the modern St. Bernard’s quest ends similarly.
Preseason, that is, at least according to the SMQ.
He actually has far more faith in our defense than I do.
As for the fourth characteristic, there is perhaps no coach (other than Pete Carroll) who meets the “celebrity/genius” test more among the media types right now than Mark Richt. After all, it was his daring “celebration” tactic that turned the entire 2007 season, at least according to pundits like Stewart Mandel. Besides Carroll, Stoops and Tressel easily fit this prototype for the other preseason “IT” teams.
The actual track record of recent “IT” teams is decidedly mixed. With the exceptions of USC in 2004 and 2007, the “IT” team of the past 5 years has ended up the LOSER to the future mythical national champion in the BCS title game. By year –
2003 Oklahoma loses to preseason 15th LSU in BCS title game.
2004 USC wins BCS title
2005 USC loses to preseason 2nd Texas in BCS title game
2006 Ohio State loses to preseason 8th Florida in BCS title game
2007 USC wins bowl game, but preseason 2nd LSU beats Ohio State in BCS title game
Georgia’s support as the “IT” team of 2008 is decidedly more tepid than those that held the spot in the past 5 years. By number and percentage of 1st place votes in the Coaches poll –
2003 Oklahoma– 29 of 62, or 46.8%
2004 USC– 44 of 61, or 72.1%
2005 USC– 60 of 62, or 96.8%
2006 Ohio State - 28 of 63, or 44.4%
2007 USC – 45 of 60, or 75%
2008 Georgia – 22 of 61, or 36.1%
What is fairly remarkable to me as an SEC fan is a team in the conference getting the nod at all, despite (or maybe because of) the SEC actually winning the BCS title 3 of the last 5 years. Those 3 SEC title winners were preseason ranked 15th, 8th and 2nd, respectively.
But as noted, Georgia’s support is fairly slim, and merely 6 first place votes ahead of USC and Ohio State, both tied with 14 first place votes apiece.
Because, despite the fanfare of the World Wide Leader for the Dawgs, perhaps Georgia’s first place spot is deservedly tenuous.
Next – Is Georgia THAT good?
Oh, how they love to get arrested in Northwest Florida.
It's a veritable rite of passage.
See the happiness below!
Just as requested, the reversal of course for Wilson has been rationally explained in a joint statement released by the University and Wilson:
"In his attempt to rejoin the team, Ron has passed 20 hours since January of 2008 while not on scholarship," Meyer said in the statement. "He is on track to graduate in May of 2009 and if he follows university and team guidelines, he will have the opportunity to achieve this goal."
Wilson was put on probation after pleading no contest to misdemeanor charges of battery and discharging a firearm in public in August 2007. Wilson fired an AK-47 assault rifle into the air in a parking lot after an altercation with another man in April and was suspended from UF for a year, but returned in January. He will pay his own way this fall and could return as a walk-on.
"I'm sorry that I caused so much embarrassment for my family, the school and the football program," Wilson said in his statement. "I'm thankful for the opportunity to be out here. It was very difficult being away from the school and the football team that I care so much about. I'm blessed to have this chance."
Difficult to fault a last chance under these circumstances.
Late last week, I posited some questions regarding the reinstatement of Ronnie Wilson, allowing that it might appear motivated by personnel weakness without more thorough explanation given Meyer's past disciplinary history.
Interestingly, the Bulldog Backwoods gleefully seized on this, started posting hither and thither and generally started cackling like so many disturbed hens.
The sky is not falling. Meyer's gaffe was more along the lines of skipping the "double dog dare" and moving straight to the "triple dog dare." A slight etiquette miscue in a world where all coaches beg, borrow and steal to get their best players on the field to win, satisfy their alumni and thus keep their exceedingly well-paying jobs.
Perhaps the UGAns should be looking in the mirror instead of peering over the fence into our backyard.
It seems that 8 UGA players have been arrested in the last 7 months.
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution did a marvelous expose of this Rogue program and Coach Richt acknowledges the damage caused by his lack of control admitting that, "It's embarassing." Richt also apparently acknowledges that his approach to discipline has been lax.
As the article points out, Richt suspended 8 players in 2003 while in 2005 one got booted from the team and one was jailed. This is no anomaly.
Now, I enjoy the good-natured bickering that goes back and forth in college football over any and everything related to football. There is rivalry over every detail. Not only how good you are, but how you got there.
However, during this discourse, I couldn't help but notice that the Bulldogs Backwoods slavish devotion has apparently blinded any sense of objectivity whatsoever. They scream like banshees at the possible minor transgression of a rival while ignoring one of the most serious, long-term discipline problems in Div. I.
What's sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander, eh Blutarsky?
For Shame!
There was an article in the Gainesville Sun about Ron Zook's last recruiting class at UF but it appears to be down. Luckily there is Google Cache:
Zook's last class a dud?Plenty ammunition for "Not Baghead".
By Robbie Andreu
Sun sports writer
Recruiting rankings are nice (and seem important) when the classes are signed, but everybody knows the only way to accurately assess a class is to take a look at it four or five years later to see what those prospects actually did in college.
With that in mind, veteran Sun college football beat writer takes a look at Ron Zook's final Florida recruiting class (2004).
The class was ranked No. 7 in the nation by Rivals.com in 2004, but based on what's happened since, it turned out to be sort of just an OK class. It produced what could be considered 10 full-time starters, but it also was a class hit heavily by attrition, especially on the defensive side.
This diminished class is one reason the Gators now have only one senior defensive player on scholarship (tackle Javier Estopinan) heading into the 2008 season. On the positive side, this class produced three starters on the 2008 offensive line and a standout tight end.
Here's a player-by-player look at what has happened to Zook's final Florida recruiting class:
Michael Brown, OL: He transferred to Mississippi State in 2005 and was dismissed from the team after being arrested on gun charges.
Tate Casey, TE: A redshirt senior and No. 3 tight end at UF who is coming off a medical hardship year.
Branden Daniel, DT: Dismissed from the team in 2005 and transferred to Georgia Southern.
Javier Estopinan, DT: Redshirt senior at UF who missed 2007 after undergoing knee surgery. He has started nine games in his career.
Dawayne Grace, CB: Was dismissed from the team in 2005 and transferred to Georgia Southern.
Dane Guthrie, TE: Transferred to Arizona State, where he is battling for a starting role this season.
Derrick Harvey, DE: Only five-star recruit in the class was a two-year starter at UF. Drafted in the first round by Jacksonville last spring.
Cornelius Ingram, QB: Fifth-year senior at UF who has emerged as a standout pass-catching tight end.
Kyle Jackson, DB: Backup player who had a handful of starts in his UF career.
Tony Joiner, SS: Starter at UF his junior and senior seasons.
Mike Mangold, DE: Failed to qualify academically.
Markus Manson, RB: Gave up a final year of eligibility at UF to transfer to Valdosta State.
Mike McIntosh, WR: Backup player who left the team in 2006.
Derrick McPhearson, WR: Failed to qualify academically and signed with Illinois (and Zook) a year later. He was tossed at Illinois after being charged with larceny, breaking and entering and obstruction of justice.
Drew Miller, OL: Three-year starter at UF who is now a rookie with the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Jeremy Mincey, DE: The junior college transfer was a two-year starter at UF who is now with the Jacksonville Jaguars.
McIntosh Nicolas, CB: Failed to qualify academically and never played Division I football.
Eric Rutledge, RB: Became the starting fullback at UF last season as a senior.
Brandon Siler, LB: One of the most productive players of the class. Entered the NFL after his junior season in 2006 and is now with the San Diego Chargers.
Jim Tartt, OL: One of UF's most experienced players, with 29 starts at left guard. He enters his senior season as a potential all-star candidate.
Markell Thompson, DE: The junior college transfer was a backup at tight end in his two years at Florida.
Phil Trautwein, OL: The Gators' starting left tackle. He missed the 2007 season with a stress fracture in his foot. He's started 15 games in his career, 14 at left tackle.
Jason Watkins, OL: In Trautwein's absence, he started all 13 games at left tackle last season as a junior. He is now the starting right tackle. His other two career starts came at tight end in 2006.
Urban Meyer shares a thought about the September 6th game against the University of Miami:
"I've done my research on it. I understand that we haven't beaten them in quite a while," Meyer said last month at the Florida annual football media days. "I go to sleep at night and dream about what that stadium is going to look like on the second game at 8 o'clock at night."Three words, Coach: Don't blow it.
Urban Meyer's response to my note imploring him not to overlook the University of Miami:
Click on image to enlarge
The card was typed but it looks like it was signed with a sharpie as opposed to a computer or a stamp. Who knows?
Florida gets a ton of (relative) love
Sure Georgia snags the number one spot preseason for the first time in their history. And from the top there is only one way to go.
But when you look at how the teams were ranked relative to their final 2007 rankings, it is the Clemson and Florida that really standout, gaining the most in the preseason ranking relative to their final ranking last season.
For those teams that ended ranked last year, the relative gains in ranking this preseason are –
Looks like Ronnie Wilson will return to the Gators as a walk-on defensive linemen.
Deservedly, there will be a firestorm from our SEC competitors and in-state rivals. Urban Meyer has hoisted himself upon his own petard.
From Day 1, Coach Meyer has portrayed himself as a hard-nosed, but fair disciplinarian. If you've ever listened to him speak, he realizes that all 18-21 yr. old males are idiots. As a result, his punishments vary with the severity of the offense and/or university mandate.
For severe offenses, he has typically suspended players for the season, with the opportunity to earn their way back, much as Coach Spurrier did with Jabar Gaffney. Players who violated the terms of their suspension, until now, have been booted from the team.
In the past, Meyer's been tough. Recall that Marcus Thomas earned himself a 4-game suspension then allegedly repeated the identical violation and was dismissed from our NC team in the middle of the campaign.
Likewise, Avery Atkins was dismissed for a serious domestic altercation, but the door was left open for a return if he lived up to expectations. Unfortunately, Mr. Atkins violated the terms of his suspension and was permanently dismissed. In Atkins case, he suffered an untimely death under unusual circumstances. The end was tragic, though not necessarily related to the suspension. More likely, his demise was related to the personal issues that caused him to be suspended and dismissed in the first place.
Then, Ronnie Wilson. Wilson's charges were serious. He was alleged to have fired a gun while committing a felony. Under Florida's "10-20-Life" statute, he faced a mandatory 20 yr. prison term if he went to trial and was convicted. Accordingly, he was suspended indefinitely and missed the entire 2007 campaign. Ultimately, he plead guilty to related misdemeanors that more nearly met the circumstances of the case, since Wilson was never alleged to have pointed the firearm at anyone, but only fired it in the air after having his car blocked in by an angry person with whom there had been a previous altercation. Wilson appeared to have been nearing the end of his suspension when he was dismissed for violating unspecified team and university rules. The rumor has been that he tested positive for a banned substance.
Under theThomas/Atkins precedent, that should have been it for Wilson under "The Meyer Rules."
It is not.
Wilson will be returning as a defensive lineman, apparently. We need defensive linemen, desperately.
I once sat on an airplane next to Wilson's parents. Very nice people. They told me that his first love was the defensive line, but had been encouraged to shift to offensive line since his size and agility would increase his chances of making it to the NFL. They told me that throughout his career the conversation of switching him to defensive would line would recur periodically.
It's clear that Meyer's worried about this defense. For some reason, he seems to be willing to forego his stated policies to build the defense.
Frankly, I think that he didn't really believe we were going to be in an NC position at the time he booted Marcus Thomas off the team in 2006. Privately, he was highly critical of Chris Leak as a QB. I don't think he felt we had the offense to succeed, even with a superlative defense.
Now, circumstances are different. We have an offense of players hand-picked by Coach Meyer who are capable and prepared to run his offense, his way. He will be damned if an inadequate defense will frustrate his dream of national validation of his offense. Meyer knows he has an NC caliber offense and knows that not only is the SEC East loaded for bear, but so is the SEC West. Tennessee's biggest weaknesses are an inexperienced QB and a fat, lazy, offensively predictable coach. Georgia has no weaknesses. LSU's only true weakness is an inexperienced QB and there is plenty of good talent and good coaching at Auburn and Alabama.
Faced with this predicament, it is my opinion that Meyer's ego has gotten the best of him. And he's showing his ass, a little bit. Meyer clearly thinks he has the tools for an NC and intends to get there, by any means necessary.
I would like to see a solid explanation from him as to why Wilson is getting a third chance. For example, has he gotten straight A's since being dismissed? Has he been seen doing stadium steps and doing prodigious workouts on his own? Has he successfully completed all of the conditions of his 2 yr. probation early?
Unfortunately, the only public pronouncement from Meyer to support this development is that he's done it before for other players, we just don't know about it.
Personally, I'm sure Wilson isn't a terrible kid, his parents were sure nice. If he was going to be getting another chance, it would have tremendous credibility if he spent this entire year on his own dime and excelled instead of transferring, as a player of his talent could easily do.
Meyer will find that this will not quite be acceptable given the national stage upon which he now sits, and has used, to explain his high standards. This is not Bowling Green, it is not Utah.
Hopefully, the Florida Faithful will require more, I am relatively certain the national media and our rivals will.
Or What the Hell is Wrong with Florida State?
Our friends as Scalp’em have daringly raised the forbidden question – can Bobby Bowden actually coach? And while my colleague GatorKGB has tossed any available fuel on the burning pyre that is FSU football, I like to take a more analytical approach to the question – an examination of the statistics.
Coaching involves many facets, but what we will address here is whether FSU is getting the most out of its recruited talent. In other words – in anybody coaching these kids? We will take a look at the recruiting statistics of Rivals from 2002-2007, and how that compares to FSU’s success (or lack of) since 2003 (the first year of the 2002 class).
First Florida State’s win-loss records since 2003 –
2003 10-3
2004 9-3
2005 8-5
2006 7-6
2007 7-6
There is a trend here, and it ain’t good. Since 2005 FSU has been a purely mediocre football team.
Next let’s take a look at FSU’s recruiting class statistics per Rivals from 2002-2007 –
Mentioned in Austin Murphy's book Saturday Rules
