Year-Over-Year Defensive Scoring Changes

Why Florida went 9-4 last year, and why even that was a miracle

After examining the statistics that are most likely to be held by BCS Champions, I decided to take a look at how much the most shared statistic – a low number of defensive points surrendered per game – might change on a year-over-year basis. In that way I hoped to be able to see who might be strong in that category based on last year’s data.

The long and short of it – this statistic can change dramatically in a year.

Buffalo, of all schools, improved the most from 2006 to 2007, with their scoring defense going from 35.9 ppg to 18.5, or a 94.05% improvement. The top ten by improvement were –

1 Buffalo 94.05%
2 Temple 57.03%
3 Kansas 55.49%
4 Connecticut 42.11%
5 Louisiana Tech 35.83%
6 New Mexico 26.32%
7 North Carolina 24.49%
8 Illinois 22.94%
9 West Virginia 19.89%
10 Air Force 19.43%

Many of these schools, like Kansas and U Conn, were among the surprise teams of 2007.

The ten defenses which regressed the most (by national ranking) –

110 Central Mich. -39.57%
111 Nevada -40.37%
112 Miami (Fla.) -40.38%
113 North Texas -43.90%
114 Navy -44.78%
115 Brigham Young -46.74%
116 Florida -47.06%
117 Wisconsin -47.84%
118 Louisville -48.09%
119 Nebraska -51.72%

Pretty much a list of the horrible, including the last two in Louisville and Nebraska.

And there are our Gators at 116th, with a defense that went from 13.5 ppg to 25.5. Among this group, a 9-4 record is pretty damn good.