Hoge is way off base on Tebow

It's official, Merril Hoge took too many hits to the head and it's affecting his analysis. He goes off on Tim Tebow claiming that Tebow is:

"as phony as a three-dollar bill" and that the New York Jets didn't realize "how bad Tim Tebow was" when they traded for him.

As a Gator I want Tim Tebow to succeed. That's no surprise.  But I find the situations that Tebow has found himself in are completely unfair. This blog was built on numbers so let's take a look.

I remember NFL experts saying that it takes 3 years to develop a pro quarterback.  Tim Tebow is wrapping up his third season but note that he has not had one complete training camp as the presumed starter so he begins with an incredible handicap. He's also had three head coaches, two offensive coordinators and two systems to learn in those three years. Again, this is not what you would consider optimal for grooming a QB.

In his three seasons (really spot duty in parts of two seasons with the Broncos plus this abomination of season with Jets) Tebow has completed 47.9% of his passes. He's thrown 17 TDs and 9 interceptions. His career QB rating is 75.3.  Additionally he's rushed for 989 yards, 12 TDs and lost 6 fumbles.

Now let's compare that to Andrew Luck the first overall pick of the NFL draft by the Indianapolis Colts.  Luck, in contrast to Tebow, came in highly touted was penciled in as the opening day starter and has received all of the support one would expect for a franchise QB. Luck has completed 54.3% of his passes. He's thrown 21 TDs and 18 interceptions. His QB rating is 75.6. He's rushed for 254 yards, 5 TDs and lost 5 fumbles.

Both QBs have low completion percentages though Tebow's is admittedly uglier. But in terms of taking care of the ball it's a different story. Tebow's TD to interception ratio is close to 2:1 (1.88) while Luck's is closer to 1:1 (1.16).

Layer in the rushing and Tebow has accounted for 29 TDs and turned the ball over 15 times while Luck has accounted for 26 TDs and turned the ball over 23 times. So Tebow actually wins in this comparison when you look at TDs vs. turnovers (+14 vs +3 for Luck).

And the QB ratings are virtually identical but one player is viewed as an oddity and the other is expected to be the next Johnny Unitas or Peyton Manning for the Colts franchise.

The Miami Dolphins also picked a quarterback in the first round, Ryan Tannehill.  The Dolphins and the local media are very high on Tannehill's performance thus far and his potential. They gave him the starting job in training camp, bypassing the more experience Matt Moore.  Here's Tannehill's numbers:

58.4% completion percentage, 12 TDs, 12 INTs and a QBR of 76.9.  He's rushed for 203 yards, 2 TDs and lost 3 fumbles.  His TD to INT ratio is exactly 1:1 and his total TD vs. turnovers is -1.

So I'm not really understanding how Merril Hoge or anyone else can project whether or not Tebow can legitimately play quarterback in the league. Who's to say what Tebow might be with a coach and coordinator that believe in him and a full training camp as the starter under his belt? Remember that pundits like Hoge (though perhaps not him specifically) raved about players like Tim Couch, Brady Quinn, Ryan Leaf and Jamarcus Russell.

Unfortunately, even if Tebow ends up in a better situation it's going to be on a bad team and he'll have to pick up his third offense in four years. One thing is certain though, the vitriol in his remarks indicates that Merril Hoge has some sort of axe to grind with Tebow.

Coming soon...

R.I.P. Big 12

The conference formally known as the Big 12 will lose its remaining marquee members on Tuesday June 15th.

The Austin Statesman (Austin, TX newspaper) is reporting that the Texas University System is meeting on Tuesday and after that meeting it will announce that the University of Texas and Texas Tech will be leaving the Big 12 for the Pac 10. Apparently, Texas A&M is still discussing the possibility of joining the SEC, although severing ties with the other Texas state universities does not seem likely to me - given the financial and political ramifications. Orangebloods.com is also reporting this to be true and Chip Brown was the one that broke the whole Texas to the Pac 10 story in the first place.

The Daily Oklahoman (another newspaper) is reporting that both Oklahomas and Oklahoma State will be leaving the Big 12 but they will not announce their intentions until after Texas announces its intentions.

Is it just me or do all these other Big 12 schools come off like Texas's bitch? In the words of a friend of mine from a Big 12 school, the David McWilliams era wasn't that long ago.

Apparently paying players is worse than taking tests for them

Remember when you read the penalties for USC they are actually worse than the sounds, and they don't sound very good.

No one cares about vacating wins (which is the dumbest penalty ever) and the lose of a post-season play isn't that big of deal either, b/c winning championships isn't as important to players as it is to the fans. The big penalty here is the 15/75 penalty.

What this means that USC can offer no more than 15 scholarships for the next 3 years and at no point during that 3 year period can there be more than 75 players on scholarship. Let's examine this closer with numbers. For argument's sake say the USC football roster is broken down as follows:

20 seniors
20 juniors
20 sophomores
25 freshman

85 total players on scholarship

After this season USC will graduate those 20 seniors and be left with a maximum of 65 players on scholarship. I say maximum b/c typically a school loses 4-6 non-graduating players a year to either the pros or transfers. But for this discussion we will say there is no attrition at USC after the 2010 season.

With a roster of 65 scholarship players, USC would not be allowed to sign more than 10 players on signing day 2011. Bringing the roster back to 75.

After the 2011 season, USC would graduate another 20 players (still using the numbers from above). At that point they would have 55 scholarship players. So on signing day 2012, USC would be limited to 15 players. Bringing the roster to 70.

Finally after the 2012 season, USC would graduate another 20 players, leaving 50 players on scholarship. Once again USC is limited to signing 15 players on signing day 2013, which would bring the roster to 65.

The numbers are far worse if you add in the likely attrition of non-graduating players.

Expansion

The expansion dominoes are officially falling with the announcement that Colorado becomes the 11th team in the Pac-10. It is seems all but certain that Nebraska will announce they are becoming the 12th team in the Big 10.

In a response to these two moves, the AD's at Texas and Texas A&M are meeting at somepoint today to discuss their futures. Interestingly enough, Andy Staples has an article on SI.com stating that Mike Slive and the A&M brass met months ago to discuss their potential interest in joining the SEC. Did you realize that A&M ranked 22nd in the Nation in athletic revenue? I know I didn't.

I absolutely love the idea of A&M becoming a member of the SEC, and I don't need the Longhorns to be a part of the deal to make me happy. As a matter of fact, I would prefer that they not join our beloved conference. It is Texas's arrogance that is leading to the disolution of the Big 12; and Texas was a constant source of frustration for both Nebraska and Colorado, and I am not talking about the football field. I think the Aggies would fit in rather nicely in the SEC West. There is an old SWC rival in Arkansas. A&M and Alabama could have an annual game commemorated with the winner getting a bronzed houndstooth hat. A&M and Miss. St. could battle in the Jackie Sherrill Bowl. The possibilities are endless.

So who is next for the SEC? To make the argument more interesting OU, Texas, Ok. State and Texas Tech cannot be in the discussion.

Looking for a New Def. Coordinator

It appears that George Edwards will be named the new Defensive Coordinator for Buffalo Bills.

Let me say that if this was known before signing day and not told to the players that signed with us yesterday that is a bs move by our staff.

Update February 5 - 10am

According to Joe Schad, Edwards was offered the Bills job on Signing Day.

Names already thrown around

Corwin Brown - currently the DB coach for the Patriots
Tyrone Nix - currently the DC at Ole Miss
Everett Withers - currently the DC at North Carolina
Taver Johnson - currently the DB coach for Ohio State
Tommy Thigpen - currently the LB coach at Auburn
Kalani Sitake - currently the DC at Utah

You may hear other names but unless they are a minority candidate they will not even be offered the job.

Signing Day

Today is a huge day for the Gators.

As of 9:15am here are the letters of intent that in:

Solomon Patton - WR
Gerald Christian - TE
Ian Silberman - OT
Trey Burton - QB
Leon Orr - OL/DL
Jaylen Watkins - CB
Jordan Haden - S/LB
Matt Elam - S/RB
Robert Clark - WR/CB
Josh Shaw - CB/S
Neiron Ball - LB/DE
Chris Dunkley - WR - first LOI in at 7am
Dominique Easly - DT
Tyler Murphy - QB/Ath
Cody Riggs - CB
Quinton Dunbar - WR
Jonathan Dowling - S/WR
Mike McFarland - TE
Gideon Ajagbe - LB
Mack Brown, Jr. - RB
Sharrif Floyd - DT
Michael Taylor - LB

Update #1

Lynden Trail - DE

Update #2

Ronald Powell - DE

Update #3 - as of 11:30 am

Darrin Kitchens - LB
Travon Van - DB/RB

Update #4 - as of 12:15pm

Adrian Coxson - WR

Update #5 - as of 3:45pm

Chaz Green - OL

Tennessee, Punk'd

new DC?

George Edwards. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Edwards_(American_football)


this would be a great hire if it pans out.

Where to start

There is so much going on right now it is next to impossible to pick a place to start discussing the State of our beloved Gators.

The Sugar Bowl

1. Now this is the team that we were all expecting to see when Tebow announced he was coming back after the National Championship game. It is amazing how well a team can play when the burden of being perfect is taken away. We finally saw a team that was loose and having fun. Those of us (myself included) with concerns about Steve Addazio as offensive coordinator got to see what I believe is Addazio preferred gameplan - throw the ball all over the field without abandoning the run. Seemed to work pretty good - and as my 6 year-old said to me last night I can't wait for football season to start again.

The Staff

1. Urban Meyer. I know that there are some cynics out there but Meyer really didn't look "right" after the game, at least not to me. I know that Bernie Machen did an interview with Andy Staples of SI.com where he stated that Meyer did not require surgery to fix the problem, but if I had to guess I would say that Meyer has an issue with a heart valve. The valve could probably stay in its current condition, if Meyer were to give up any stressful activity, however if Meyer wanted to continue to coach valve replacement surgery would be necessary. I imagine that Meyer will have the surgery sometime between the last week of January and the middle of February, this will allow 6 month healing period prior to fall practice.

2. Steve Addazio. He has gone from the person that a majority of the fans wanted to have replaced to leader of the program in the blink of an eye. My understanding is that he has more say in recruiting than he did before Meyer's leave of absence. The increased role is believed to be a main reason for the committment of Dominique Easley during the Under Armor Game. Also don't be surprised to see Ace Sanders get a commitable offer now that Addazio is running the show, since Ace is one of his favorite players.

3. Kenny Carter. My understanding is that Carter will join Charlie Strong at Louisville. He will take the same position. I think that it is fair to say that Carter was allowed to leave in the same way Hevesy was allowed to leave to Mississippi State last year.

4. Charlie Strong. There were quotes going around from Strong stating that he wouldn't be poaching our coaches. Apparently that all changed when Meyer resigned for 12 hours. Typically when someone on your staff takes a job as a head coach at another school, the coach that is leaving meets with his former boss. At that meeting it is determined which coaches the new head coach can approach about going with him. My understanding is that Vance Bedford was not on that original list. Bedford is well respected and crucial with regards to recruiting db's. Strong has officially offerred Bedford the title of DC at Louisville.

5. Vance Bedford. At this point who knows. It is my feeling from what is being tossed around that keeping Vance Bedford is priority number 1 to Meyer/Addazio. I think this is part of the reason why a defensive coordinator has not been named yet - and yes I know it is being reported the DC title was given to Chuck Heater but I don't think that is official yet. The more we hear that Bedford is going to see Florida recruits, the better this plays out for the Gators. For the record he is supposed to have an in-home with Cody Riggs on Thursday. I think at the end of the day Bedford will be a Co-DC with Chuck Heater or he won't on this staff.

6. Chuck Heater. Possibly a candidate for the Marshall DC job, but unlikely to take it, especially with his increased role on the Gator staff. Could and most likely will end up at least the Co-DC at Florida. Part of the reason that I think no one has been named DC yet is because it is possible that Meyer will need the DC title to lure the right candidate to Gainesville, whomever that may be.

7. DJ Durkin. Rumored to be the new special teams coach and potentially a LB coach. Played for Urban Meyer at Bowling Green and was most recently on Jim Harbaugh's staff at Stanford. Meyer getting the staff's "ducks in a row" has to be the only reason why Durkin hasn't been announced yet.

Juniors to the NFL

1. Joe Haden. He has declared and should be the first CB picked - most likely between 10-15.

2. Carlos Dunlap. Cannot imagine that he will come back but that is what he was telling everyone prior to the Sugar Bowl. I think the pre-draft paperwork will say he is an early first round pick and he will leave.

3. Aaron Hernandez. It is being reported that he has already declared, but nothing official yet. Prior to his performance at the Sugar Bowl he was a lock to stay. He is a 2nd or 3rd round pick.

4. Maurkice Pouncey. I hear he is leaving after receiving a good pre-draft report.

5. Michael Pouncey. I hear he is staying. I think this is smart, since it was highly unlikely that the twins would be drafted by the same team.

I will get to the recruits later today or tonight.

I'm happy

This morning I'm very happy for Bobby Bowden. He went out a winner as a he deserved to. Say whatever you want about his coaching skills deteriorating over the last few years but he handled himself with dignity and represented UF's sister school with class.

Final thought, Urban Meyer can learn a little something from coach Bowden, namely how to keep football in perspective and balance work with family.

Take a Deep Breath

I'm on vacation and iPhone blogging, so this will be brief.

I've been hearing rumors of health issue with Meyer for some time, and had it on a pretty good source he would be gone by age 50 at latest. If he had to leave, while no time is "perfect", right now is damn close. Next year was apt to be a down year anyway with our player losses, and with the new talent coming in (that we can hold in to) it is a good time to implement a new system.

There are plenty of talented coaches out there that will thrive with the inherent advantages Florida has. Folely won't make a Zookian error twice. Remember, Miami won 5 "national titles" with 4 different coaches.

It didn't end with Steve Spurrier, and it won't end with Meyer. Both men left the program better than they found it. The best job in college football awaits.

And So That Is That

Gloat away rivals, but know this truth -

If we want your coach, we can have him.

If we don't want him, by all means keep him.

SEC Football – Making People Happy

I found this piece today listing the 10 “happiest” states in the nation. They are –


1. Louisiana
2. Hawaii
3. Florida
4. Tennessee
5. Arizona
6. Mississippi
7. Montana
8. South Carolina
9. Alabama
10. Maine

Six of the ten are SEC football states. The correlation is obvious.

The least “happy” SEC state? Kentucky, at 35th. Of course if I had to root for Wildcat football, 35th sounds about right.

The least happy state overall is New York, where college football is nearly absent. Once again, an obvious correlation.