Monday, November 12, 2007

BlogPoll Week 11

Kansas is number 1.

If you are the only undefeated team in a BCS conference after the 11th week of play, you should be number 1. Period.

Sure their opposition hasn’t been stellar thus far. Neither had been Ohio State’s, yet people were willing to rank them number one with little difficulty. For Kansas, one of two things is going to happen –

1. They will lose. If they lose, they won’t be number 1 anymore.

2. They will go undefeated and win the Big 12, in which case they will play for the BCS title.

If you aren’t ranking Kansas number 1 right now because you think the first option above might happen, then exactly how the hell can you justify anyone else you have number 1? LSU might lose another game too. If there is anything we have learned about this year, it is that our collective predictions have been crapola. Don’t tell me you know what “might” happen, or I’ll go pull your old Blog Polls and make a fool of you.

I’m perfectly comfortable putting Kansas number 1 even though they might yet lose. In that case, they will be demoted appropriately. Plus, even though their opponents have been less than top-tier, they have done excellent against them. Note the following –

NCAA Rankings

Scoring Offense

Kansas – Ranked 2 at 45.9 ppg

Scoring Defense

Kansas – Ranked 2 at 14.9 ppg

That folks is top flight play thus far.

An undefeated team in a BCS conference this late in the season should be the only team capable of controlling its destiny – otherwise this is all total unadulterated bullshit.

The rest -

1Kansas 1
2LSU 1
3Missouri 2
5Arizona State 4
6Oklahoma 1
7West Virginia 1
8Ohio State 7
9Georgia 4
10Virginia Tech 4
11Texas 7
12Cincinnati 5
13Boston College 3
14Virginia 6
16Connecticut 8
17Southern Cal 2
18Hawaii 7
19Boise State 7
20Florida 1
21Tennessee 1
22Illinois 4
23Wisconsin 3
25South Florida 1

Dropped Out: Michigan (#16), Alabama (#23), Auburn (#25).

As for the others, I gauged both quality of wins and losses. LSU has the most quality wins, and only that overtime loss on the road. Missouri comes in next with the best quality loss of the group (to 1 loss Oklahoma on the road). I have no problem ranking Oklahoma behind a team they beat in Missouri – Oklahoma’s road loss at Colorado was far worse than the Tigers.

For West Virginia, that loss to USF looks worse all the time. Ohio State, as the only 1 loss team with that loss at home, is the last in BCS conference 1 loss rankings.

Georgia gets my “1st” spot for a two-loss team, and Florida the “1st” for a three loss team.

That is all for now. Let me know what you think.


Anonymous said...

WV ahead of OSU? I'm not sure if this is anti-B10 bias, anti-OSU bias, or anti-Zook bias.

Or maybe you are taking the AP route, punishing the team that lost most recently.

Henry Louis Gomez said...

The Harris, Coaches, and overall BCS rankings also have WVU ahead of OSU. It's not a stretch.

Anonymous said...

OSU is not the only one loss team to lose at home. I seem to recall some big game in Oregon...

Henry Louis Gomez said...

Yes and? The very act of ranking means you have to make choices. And the arbitrary nature of polls is why Mergz and I have disdain for the "national championship". Besides there is some logic to the losing early vs. losing late method. Teams are supposed to improve as the season progresses.

Anonymous said...

Hey, don't get too defensive. I was pointing out a factual error, not an error of criterion. I have no problem with where any of your placements are.

Henry Louis Gomez said...

I'm not defensive. What factual error.

robert cleave said...

Henry, I think he's alluding to the fact that Oregon's 1 loss was also at home, to California.

Mergz said...

This mistake was mine, not Henry's. Oregon did indeed lose at home.

I think it is my inclination to switch Oregon and ASU. Sure ASU lost to Oregon, but it was at Oregon, and arguably Oregon is a better loss than at home to Cal (now a 4 loss team themselves).

So I would say this is better -

4. Arizona State
5. West Virginia
6. Ohio State
7. Oregon
8. Oklahoma

Why this way? Because ASU has the "best" loss (1 loss Oregon on the road), WVU the 2nd best loss (3 loss USF on the road), Ohio State the next (3 loss Illinois at home), Oregon the next best loss (4 loss Cal at home), and Oklahoma the worst 1 loss(6 loss Colorado on the road).

Admittedly these are very fine distinctions, but ties aren't allowed.

Finally, the reason I posted this early was for reader input. I do appreciate the help.

Anonymous said...

ASU got trounced at Oregon, so compare their loss and Oregon's - which was the result of fumbling the ball out of the end on an attempt to take the lead - is assinine.

OSU is deserving of the last 1 loss team positioning because they haven't played anyone and they lost at home.

I don't agree with the grouping of 1 loss teams, 2 loss teams, etc. but that is my own personal belief system. Connecticut has 2 losses I believe and I guarantee you they would not beat #'s 20 & 21 in your poll. Even if the game was played in Storrs. But there has to be some method to the madness of ranking teams and you have a method.

- Scully

Mergz said...

Scully -

We do a separate Power Rankings which is more of the "who would beat who" type of analysis. This is more a "who is more deserving based on on field achievement" type of ranking.

I also disagree that ASU was "trounced". They outgained Oregon 489 to 400 which is astounding considering the team's reps (ASU defense, OU offense).

The way I look at losses, especially in a year when there is so much "round robin" losses (like UF losing to UGA who lost to UT who lost to UF), is who has the "worse" loss. Cal is now a 4 loss team and looking bad, so Oregon losing to Cal is worse than ASU losing to Oregon.

Anonymous said...

I understand your logic, but does your method take into account that Cal was without their starting QB for all or a majority of 2 of those losses? Or that UConn was the beneficiary of a horrible call (Louisville game)?

The problem with polls is those who vote can't watch all of the teams they vote on. This is not a shot at you b/c it is impossible to watch all of the games. Did you watch the Oregon/ASU game? ASU lost by 12 and it would have been worse if Dixon would not have gotten hurt. But if you read the summary of the game you see ASU outgained the Ducks and that Carpenter threw an interception in the endzone. Sounds pretty close, but in reality I don't think ASU ever had a chance to win the game in the 2nd half.