Part 2 of 2
In our first part we visited the reasons why a Big 12 team probably won’t win the BCS title based on the characteristics of past BCS champions.
So who will win it, at least based on past BCS champion statistical characteristics?
Of the teams that meet the defensive oriented criteria of past champions, and are still eligible, it comes down to three –
Alabama, Florida and Southern Cal
In the study of common past characteristics, we can expect the BCS title winner to have a Scoring Defense in the top 11 (average of 5.6 rank, or 14 ppg), a Passing Efficiency Defense in the top 17 (average of 7th ranked, or 95.15) and a Total Defense in the top 15 (average of 8th ranked, or 281 ypg).
Our contenders and their stats –
Scoring Defense – 6th ranked, 12.5 ppg
Passing Eff Defense – 7th ranked, 97.71
Total Defense – 3rd ranked, 255.6 ypg
Scoring Defense – 3rd ranked, 12 ppg
Passing Eff Defense -6th ranked, 97.65
Total Defense – 9th ranked, 278.7 ypg
Scoring Defense – 1st ranked, 8.3 ppg
Passing Eff Defense – 1st ranked, 84.34
Total Defense – 2nd ranked, 222.5 ypg
Interestingly enough Penn State would have met all these criteria, but it seems they are out of the running.
Depending on the outcome of the next few weeks, there is a high probability at least one of the above will appear in Miami come January, with an excellent chance to continue the trend of dominating defenses of BCS Champions.
Monday, November 24, 2008
Part 2 of 2