Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Saurian Sagacity Week 13 Power Rankings

For the uninitiated, the method can be found here.

1 Florida 1.000
2 Texas 0.954
3 Oklahoma 0.932
4 Southern California 0.920
5 Texas Tech 0.861
6 Penn St. 0.813
7 TCU 0.810
8 Ohio St. 0.807
9 Georgia 0.774
10 Utah 0.758
11 Boise St. 0.747
12 Missouri 0.745
13 Alabama 0.722
14 Florida St. 0.721
15 Oklahoma St. 0.708
16 Cincinnati 0.661
17 Iowa 0.658
18 Oregon St. 0.649
19 Mississippi 0.641
20 California 0.628
21 North Carolina 0.627
22 Georgia Tech 0.616
23 Clemson 0.616
24 Pittsburgh 0.608
25 Boston College 0.607

Once again the rating after the team name provides a way to access the relative strength of teams. In this week’s poll Florida, the standard at 1.000, is 4.6% “better” than Texas, and 39.3% “better” than Boston College.

One thing about our Power Rankings this year – they are either off the mark, or Alabama is far worse than anyone seems to believe. I guess we will find out December 6th which is which.

I use the Power Rankings to look at likely outcomes for games. If you believe home field gives a “three point” advantage, that would equal about a 5.5% advantage for a home team.

Using our Power Rankings the matchups for the week and weekend ahead show (with home field factored in) –

Thursday: Texas A&M at Texas – Texas is 66% better (win by 36 points at home)

Friday: Fresno State at Boise State – Boise is 39.9% better (win by 22 points at home)


Florida at Florida State – Florida is 22.4% better (win by 12 points on the road)

Notre Dame at USC – The Trojans are 57.7% better (win by 31 at home)

Georgia Tech at Georgia – Georgia is 21.3% better (win 12 at home)

Oregon at Oregon State – Oregon State is 15.9% better (win by 9 points at home)

Now certainly all normal cautionary words apply – and these numbers are more for the sake of science than any “investment” interests.


Trader Rick said...

Now here's a poll I can agree with! Alabama IS overrated, but you can throw out the stats when it comes to the game vs. Florida.

It can somewhat be classified as a rivalry game, and after all it IS for a conference championship. I expect them to play their best game of the season. Gators better be ready.

Also the fact that it is really a semi-final National Championship game, since the winner plays for the BCS Championship...

Patrick Brownspot said...

Not so fast, oh elderly one. This assumes they both win their in-state rivalry games this saturday...

Henry Louis Gomez said...

Texas wins by 40.

Mergz said...

I would call that pretty damn close.

Henry Louis Gomez said...

Hell yeah.

Henry Louis Gomez said...

Boise wins by 51.

Henry Louis Gomez said...

Ga Tech wins by 3.