Friday, November 16, 2007

Sagarin vs. Vegas, Weekly Picks



For an explanation of the Sagarin System I am using, click this link. Vegas spreads are from Pinnacle Sports and are published here.

This week's picks:

Hawaii at Nevada
Vegas Favorite: Hawaii -6
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Hawaii: 79.09
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Nevada: 64.58
Sagarin Spread after accounting for home field: Hawaii -11.87

Sagarin suggests: Take the Rainbow Warriors and lay the 6.

Mississippi State at Arkansas
Vegas Favorite: Arkansas -11
Sagarin Predictor Rating for MSU: 71.2
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Arkansas: 83.91
Sagarin Spread: Arky -12.71

Sagarin suggests: Take the Hawgs and lay the 11

Duke at Notre Dame
Vegas Favorite: Notre Dame -6.5
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Duke: 60.71
Sagarin Predictor Rating for ND: 61.52
Sagarin Spread after accounting for home field: ND -3.45

Sagarin suggests: Take Duke and get 6.5 points.

Kentucky at Georgia
Vegas Favorite: Georgia -7.5
Sagarin Predictor Rating for UK: 82.36
Sagarin Predictor Rating for UGA: 83.25
Sagarin Spread after accounting for home field: UGA -3.53

Sagarin suggests: Take the Wildcats and the 7.5 points, this will be a close game

Northwestern at Illinois
Vegas Favorite: Illinois -13.5
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Northwestern: 66.64
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Illinois: 83.24
Sagarin Spread after accounting for home field: Illinois -16.6

Sagarin suggests: The Zookheads and lay the 13.5 points.
Note: Sagarin has again moved the home field adjustment number, it's now 2.64 points.

Wrap Up: We're taking three favorites (Hawaii, Miss. State and Illinois) and two underdogs (Duke and Kentucky).

Check back in on Sunday to see the weekly and year to date results.

3 comments:

Year2 said...

Is there a particular reason y'all still keep calling Hawaii the "Rainbow Warriors" since they changed the name a few years ago?

Mergz said...

Our Predictor beat Sagarin on the Hawaii game. With a 2.5 home advantage it saw Hawaii by 4, so you would go with Nevada and the points, and Nevada covered.

Henry Gomez said...

Year2, I'm old fashioned. Eastern Michugan is still the Hurons to me. Why does it bother you so much?