Brian at MGoBlog released the latest version of the BlogPoll today.
My first thought on seeing it was déjà vu.
Of course, I had really seen it before, or almost exactly it. It’s called the AP Poll, and it came out earlier this week.
The following is the current AP Poll, followed by the BlogPoll differences for the same teams –
That’s 14 of 25 teams ranked exactly the same as the AP, and 9 other teams ranked within 3 spots of their AP poll slots. Only the following show any real divergence -
West Virginia – BlogPollsters think WVU 4 rankings worse than the AP
Cincinnati – The Bearcats are a full 5 slots better in the BlogPoll than AP
So I ask you – is our product a better one than the national polls?
Certainly it isn’t much different. Collectively we think the Mountaineers are a bit worse than the AP voters, and the Bearcats a bit better.
There are two immediate thoughts that come to my mind as why we are so similar to the national polls –
1. We are mimics – Our BlogPoll is nothing but a result of preconceptions voters get after seeing the national rankings. “We” (collectively) see the AP results, and these results either imprint on us so significantly that we vote similar, or worse (to my thinking) we use the AP ballot as a guide.
2. Both are correct – The results are self evident. So much so in fact that were “we” denied access to the national polls entirely, the rankings are so obvious that they would be virtually the same (as they are).
In this year of highly unpredictable results, I fear it is more of the first than the second.
Does this justify our efforts?
I honestly don’t know the answer to that. And I applaud Brian and his work at putting all this together.
But if all we can come up with is a near mirror of the AP polls, I would say that our efforts are wasted.