Wednesday, October 10, 2007

Sagarin vs. Vegas, weekly picks

For an explanation of the Sagarin System I am using, click this link. Vegas spreads are from Pinnacle Sports and are published here. By the way, the Sagarin "system" is proving to be a great way to lose money, or win it you bet against the recommendations. His super computer, which I have dubbed HAL 9000, is 8-17.

This week's picks:

South Carolina at North Carolina
Vegas Favorite: Cocks -7
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Cocks: 79.46
Sagarin Predictor Rating for UNC: 72.51
Sagarin Spread after accounting for home field: South Carolina -4.02

Sagarin suggests: UNC will cover the spread. Take the Tar Heels +7.
Illinois at Iowa
Vegas Favorite: Illinois -3.5
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Illinois: 76.11
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Iowa: 71.21
Sagarin Spread after accounting for home field: Illinois -1.97

Sagarin suggests: Take Iowa and the 3.5 points.
Purdue at Michigan
Vegas Favorite: Michigan -5.5
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Michigan: 75.61
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Purdue: 80.58
Sagarin Spread after accounting for home field: Purdue -2.04

Sagarin suggests: That the wrong team is favored. Take Purdue and get 5.5 points.

Florida State at Wake Forest
Vegas Favorite: FSU -5.5
Sagarin Predictor Rating for FSU: 78.89
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Wake: 73.89
Sagarin Spread after accounting for home field: FSU -2.07

Sagarin suggests: Take the underdog Wake Forest and the 5.5 points.

Georgia Tech at Miami
Vegas Favorite: Miami -2.5
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Miami: 73.78
Sagarin Predictor Rating for GT: 78.41
Sagarin Spread after accounting for home field: GT -1.7

Sagarin suggests: The wrong team is favored, take the road dog Georgia Tech and the 2.5 points.
Wrap up: We're taking 5 underdogs (3 home dogs and 2 road dogs.

Stay tuned for results on Sunday. As I mentioned before, Sagarin is 8-17, so far this season. We'll see if he and his computer can do better this week.

I'm afraid I can't do that, Dave.

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