Tuesday, September 11, 2007

Sagarin vs. Vegas, Weekly Picks


For an explanation of the Sagarin System I am using, click this link. Vegas spreads are from Pinnacle Sports and are published here.

This week's picks:

Tennessee at Florida
Vegas Favorite: Florida
Vegas Spread: 8
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Florida: 89.20
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Tennessee: 77.75
Sagarin Home advantage: 2.93
Sagarin Spread: Florida -14.38

Sagarin suggests: Take Florida and lay the 10.5 points

Notre Dame at Michigan
Vegas Favorite: Michigan
Vegas Spread: 7.5
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Michigan: 67.19
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Notre Dame: 70.51
Sagarin Home advantage: 2.93
Sagarin Spread: Michigan -0.39

Sagarin suggests: Take Notre Dame and the 7.5 points

USC at Nebraska
Vegas Favorite: USC
Vegas Spread: 10
Sagarin Predictor Rating for USC: 87.97
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Nebraska: 87.46
Sagarin Home advantage: 2.93
Sagarin Spread: Nebraska -2.42

Sagarin suggests: Take the home underdog Nebraska and the 10 points

Illinois at Syracuse

Vegas Favorite: Illinois
Vegas Spread: 12.5
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Illinois: 68.97
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Syracuse: 57.27
Sagarin Home advantage: 2.93
Sagarin Spread: Illinois -8.77

Sagarin suggests: Take the home dog Syracuse and the 12.5 points

Iowa at Iowa State
Vegas Favorite: Iowa
Vegas Spread: 17.5
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Iowa: 82.63
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Iowa State: 54.40
Sagarin Home advantage: 2.93
Sagarin Spread: Iowa -25.3

Sagarin suggests: Take Iowa and lay the 17.5 points

Wrap up: We're taking two favorites and 3 underdogs (two home underdogs)

Take: Florida, Notre Dame, Nebraska, Syracuse, and Iowa.

2 comments:

LeftLeaningLady said...

Ok, but what about even? In my football pool, there are no spreads. I really want to take Nebraska to beat USC (a dream come true), but I don't think it is going to happen!

Henry Gomez said...

Lady,

If you want to know who sagarin's computer thinks will win the games you need to go here:

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt07.htm

Take the home team's "predictor" score (last column on the right and add the home advantage to it (currently 2.93 points). Then look at the "predictor" score for the home team. The one that is higher is your predicted winner.