Monday, October 26, 2009

Monday Pollin’

Before I get to my draft BlogPoll ballot, I want to say this;

USC ranked 5th in the BCS, and 4th in the Harris/AP Polls, is total bullshit.

I don’t usually resort to foul language, but there is no valid explanation for the Trojans that high. Consider –

USC’s “marquee” win – at Ohio State – was less impressive at 18-15 than what 3-5 Purdue eventually did to the Buckeyes.

USC moves up this week after escaping at home against Oregon State 42-36. The Beavers are currently 4-3.

Oregon State’s other two losses are to Arizona and … Cincinnati. The Bearcats beat the Beavers at Corvallis 28-18. Yet, undefeated Cincy is ranked 8th in the BCS, 3 spots behind USC. (That’s a Cincinnati team that moved down 3 slots after destroying Louisville 41-10.)

Oregon State averages 400 yards a game and 29.9 points. Against the supposedly stout USC defense they gained 482 yards and 36 points. At USC, that is. The loss was bad enough to move USC’s scoring defense from 4th to 15th nationally.

The computer polls, who aren’t rife with the bias of human voters, rank USC 9th, about where they ought to be. The humans, by placing USC 4th, are basically saying that there are zero consequences in losing a game. Moreover, in losing to a bad Washington team that is currently 3-5.

Here are the current BCS standings for teams 1 through 21. USC is ahead of 3 undefeated teams, and likewise ahead of 8 one-loss teams that have all arguably lost to a better team than Washington.

1 Florida 7-0
2 Alabama 8-0
3 Texas 7-0
4 Iowa 8-0
5 USC 6-1
6 TCU 7-0
7 Boise State 7-0
8 Cincinnati 7-0
9 LSU 6-1
10 Oregon 6-1
11 Georgia Tech 7-1
12 Penn State 7-1
13 Virginia Tech 5-2
14 Oklahoma State 6-1
15 Pittsburgh 7-1
16 Utah 6-1
17 Ohio State 6-2
18 Houston 6-1
19 Miami (FL) 5-2
20 Arizona 5-2
21 West Virginia 6-1

Finally USC, ranked 5th in the BCS, isn't even in first place currently in the Pac Ten. Next week's opponent Oregon, undefeated in conference play, is.

There. I don’t have to explain my vote that places the Trojans 11th when the BlogPoll comes out.

My ballot (Mumme Ballot is top 12) –

1Florida 1
2Alabama 1
3Cincinnati 1
4Texas 1
5TCU 1
6Iowa 3
7Boise State
8LSU 3
9Oregon 3
10Georgia Tech 1
11Southern Cal 1
12Penn State 1
13Houston 1
14Virginia Tech 1
15Oklahoma State 2
16Penn State 3
17Pittsburgh 5
18Miami (Florida) 10
19West Virginia 2
20Utah 2
22South Carolina
24Notre Dame
25Central Michigan 1
Last week's ballot

Dropped Out: South Florida (#16), Texas Tech (#19), Nebraska (#20), Brigham Young (#23), Wisconsin (#25).

Yes, I have Florida number one for the first time this season. In essence, I don’t know who else to put there.

Your comments solicited as always.


Scully said...

I think you can make a pretty strong argument that Cincinnati is the best team in college football right now.

I will tell you that when I see us projected to play them in the Sugar Bowl - I have no desire to have any part of that game and it isn't because we won't be in the National Championship game.

Floridan said...

Before we get too excited about Cincinnati, remember that they have not played any team currently in the top 25 and still have to play Pittsurbh and West Virginia.

Of all the undefeated teams, I would give the Bearcats and Iowa the lowest odds of remaining undefeated through the end of the regular season.

Scully said...

less likely than Alabama - still have play LSU and Auburn?

I still think our road to an undefeated regular has some potholes too.

Brian Kelley is Urban Meyer from 5 years ago. Just a ruthless coach and will be at a big time program within the next 18 months.

Ethan said...

You have Penn State on there twice.
To give SEC perspective on the USC rabking, they (6-1) are 4 spots ahead of LSU (6-1), whose loss was to Florida. That is basically like saying that Washington is 4 spots better than Florida. I am no fan of Orin Hatch's antics, but something's got to change.

Mergz said...

Ethan - But Penn State is sooooo good they get counted twice!

Thanks for the catch. The error is made even more amazing by the fact the poll entry site doesn't allow you to vote for a team twice.

the Swedish Chef said...

"That is basically like saying that Washington is 4 spots better than Florida." That's one of the more ridiculous statements I've seen in a while, Ethan. Really.

It's a given that USC has a much worse loss than LSU - nobody is going to dispute that. Even ignoring the facts that LSU lost at home and USC lost on the road. But you're ignoring a whole bunch of other facts that are relevant too.

If we're talking about what each team has done, in the past, USC has three road wins against the current BCS top-25 along with another win over a BCS >.500 team. LSU has just two wins over >.500 teams.

If we're talking about what they're capable of in the future, USC's only loss came without their QB and All-American Safety. With those two playing, as they are now, USC's 6-0 with a potent offense and defense. LSU's D is good, but their offense is near the bottom of every category.

Either way, the idea (opinion) that LSU > USC isn't nearly as clear-cut as you'd like to pretend it is.