Wednesday, December 02, 2009


Consider –

Scoring Offense

A. 36.5 ppg (10th nationally)
B. 31.7 ppg (25th nationally)

Scoring Defense

A. 9.8 ppg (1st nationally)
B. 10.8 ppg (2nd nationally)

Schedule Strength

A. 30th nationally
B. 19th nationally

Obviously “A” is Florida, and “B” Alabama.

Florida has scored about 5 more points per game, and given up 1 less point, but against marginally weaker competition.

Look at the common opponent scores –


Florida 23-13
‘Bama 12-10


Florida 41-7
‘Bama 38-20


Florida 13-3
‘Bama 24-15


Florida 23-20
‘Bama 35-7

Mississippi State

Florida 29-19
‘Bama 31-3

South Carolina

Floirda 24-14
‘Bama 20-6

Similar looking, no?

Flip a coin Saturday, and pray Carlos Dunlap isn’t the difference.


Mike said...

If it's even why is Vegas saying Gators and 5?

Anonymous said...

Because Vegas sets its line by whatever will cause an equal number of bets on both sides. If most of the country thinks Florida is the better team, then the line moves toward Florida, even if the odds aren't there.

Mergz said...

My system says Florida is 2.5 "better" than 'Bama.

Which is pretty damn close.

I'll be taking 'Bama on a Vegas line of 5.

Henry Louis Gomez said...

Amos is exactly right. Vegas doesn't try to predict games only to balance the betting pools.

Andrew said...

I'm still at a loss over the Dunlap deal. He is huge. It would take a half a keg to get a guy like that drunk enough to pass out. This sounds more like a case of having just enough to drink to make you sleepy. They didn't breathalyze him. Any chance he just had a couple drinks and it made him tired enough that he fell asleep waiting for the light and was still half asleep for the sobriety test?