Monday, December 08, 2008

Power Rankings - Pre Bowl

Our final Power Rankings before the bowl games, based on this formula.

1 Florida 1.000
2 Oklahoma 0.976
3 Texas 0.900
4 Southern California 0.892
5 Texas Tech 0.810
6 Ohio St. 0.809
7 Boise St. 0.800
8 TCU 0.797
9 Penn St. 0.789
10 Utah 0.745
11 Alabama 0.712
12 Florida St. 0.701
13 Georgia 0.697
14 Missouri 0.685
15 Oklahoma St. 0.678
16 Iowa 0.652
17 Pittsburgh 0.648
18 Mississippi 0.632
19 Georgia Tech 0.625
20 Cincinnati 0.618
21 Oregon St. 0.610
22 Clemson 0.608
23 Boston College 0.606
24 Virginia Tech 0.601
25 Oregon 0.598

Based on our formula, Florida is 2.7% “better” than Oklahoma, which would infer a win of 1.5 points on a neutral field.

Once again I am pretty pleased with this formula overall, as I have been for the last two years. I was wondering if it was holding up this year when it ranked Florida considerably better than Alabama. Well according to these results, Florida is 28.8% “better” than ‘Bama, or 15 points better on a neutral field. I find a result of 15 points pretty close to the actual result.

I’ll be using these Power Rankings to make bowl forecasts later. Suffice to say this now – Georgia Tech should kill LSU.

3 comments:

Andrew said...

Considering the title game seemed more like an Alabama home game, your results seem to be pretty close. Did they not sell tickets in Gainesville this year or what? Watching it on TV it looked like it was in Tuscaloosa. Bama fans outnumbered Florida fans 3 or 4 to 1!

Anonymous said...

Andrew,

For the SECCG, less than half of the tickets actually go to the competing teams. Each SEC team gets a certain number to distribute as they see fit, and there is a percentage that goes on "public" sale (I'm not sure how those are portioned out, but I believe it's a lottery system).
Since Bama clinched their division before UF, and their fans were DESPERATELY hungry for a title after 10 years of misery, I believe they scooped up most of the available tix before Florida fans knew for sure that we would be there.

y-g

UFGatorDMD said...

Now you just have to get your computer rankings factored into the BCS system! j/k

Interesting end results...even considering the fact that Utah did beat TCU during the year..but it was @ Utah and only a 3 point margin.

I think your end result rankings are probably pretty accurate and would likely be good "predictors" for CFB bowls...the x-factor as far as I'm concerned is motivation for the post season, which can tip the scales significantly in a bowl game.