Monday, November 10, 2008

Week 11 Power Rankings

For explanation of the process see here.

Our Top 25 by Power Rankings (with comparative ratio) –

1 Southern California 1.000
2 Texas 0.987
3 Florida 0.947
4 Texas Tech 0.917
5 Ohio St. 0.873
6 Oklahoma 0.867
7 Boise St. 0.863
8 Georgia 0.827
9 Missouri 0.802
10 TCU 0.784
11 Penn St. 0.772
12 Utah 0.764
13 North Carolina 0.761
14 Oklahoma St. 0.726
15 Florida St. 0.709
16 Alabama 0.705
17 Cincinnati 0.668
18 Iowa 0.666
19 California 0.642
20 Virginia Tech 0.642
21 Mississippi 0.638
22 Miami (Fla.) 0.634
23 LSU 0.634
24 Nebraska 0.633
25 Pittsburgh 0.628

Remember this is not a resume based poll but a power poll, or a measure of “who is better” based on relatively non-biased ratings. With USC as the standard, this model says the Trojans are 5.3% “better” than Florida (1 minus 0.947) on a neutral field.

Similarly, Florida is 12% better than Georgia.

My comments on the above –

USC gets the nod based on their unbelievably stout defense which is surrendering only 6.7 points per game, the lowest number I ever recall seeing. As in Ever. I know, this is a reflection of their opposition in part, and their SOS per the NCAA is currently 53rd overall. But 6.7 ppg against ANYONE is amazing.

Ohio State comes in 5th based largely on their SOS, currently the nation’s 6th best.

Yeah, that’s Boise at 7th. The Broncos have the nation’s 2nd best scoring defense at 10.3 ppg, and the 61st toughest schedule.

Alabama comes in at 16th. Why? Well their offense ranks 31st overall at 31.7 ppg, between Southern Miss and Troy. Their defense is better at 7th overall, but so far their schedule ranks a woeful 84th nationally, having played teams with a 34-41 overall record.

Iowa has been a surprise entry in our power poll top 25 for several weeks, which is why I gave them a shot over Penn State.

Some other notables –

33. Illinois
38. South Carolina
44. Vanderbilt

How about this gruesome threesome –

88 Tennessee
89 Auburn
90 Michigan

And if you are interested, the bottom ten are –

110 UAB
111 Kent St.
112 Iowa St.
113 La.-Monroe
114 Miami (Ohio)
115 Idaho
116 San Diego St.
117 Washington
118 Washington St.
119 North Texas


Aligator said...

USC plays in a conference where everyone sucks!!

Anonymous said...

Thanks for the props for USC.

Alabama just seems ready to lose and I think Florida would destroy them right now.

Highly unlikely but I would love to see USC v. Florida.

Anonymous said...

Mergz, I understand you ranking based on SOS and offense/defense stats etc., but it seems that common-sense got thrown out of the window (no offense :) ... just thought those words would rhyme well... I know, I need a life, but I digress).

How do you explain that Bama is ranked way below UGA? (beyond what you've written already).

Mergz said...

Folks these are my rankings in formula only - not in "choice", if you will. Does it make a lot of sense that Bama is below Georgia? Not really. But Georgia has a better overall offense, and played a harder schedule.

A very similar method to this was spot on for the "national" champion for the past 2 years. And it isn't done yet. Let's see what happens.

Henry Louis Gomez said...

I'm sure there's some people around here that are glad FIU isn't in the bottom 10.

DolFan 316 said...

My big gripe is that the one team with zero wins is somehow *not* at the bottom. What kind of a cockamamie poll is this? LOL