Boise State Will Go Undefeated
So likely too will Ball State. What then?
Boise State now sits at a very comfortable 8-0 with remaining contests against –
2-7 Utah State
2-8 Idaho
4-4 Nevada
4-3 Fresno State
Fresno, perhaps the only team with a chance of beating the Broncos, plays Boise at home on that supernatural blue field. They won’t win.
Boise is currently 9th in the AP, and 10th in the BCS standings. However, the computer polls place then 8th overall (as high as 7th and as low as 10th).
What about the teams ahead of them? How high can Boise go?
First of all I expect fellow mid-major Utah to lose to either TCU or BYU on their remaining schedule, knocking them from their current post at 8th in the BCS. Next there are 4 Big 12 teams ahead of them – Texas Tech, Texas, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. Incredibly all these teams are not only in the Big 12, they are in the Big 12 South. Ok State has yet to play both Tech and Oklahoma, and Oklahoma and Tech have yet to play either. One of these will emerge winner of the South, likely to play Missouri in the Big 12 Championship. A Missouri upset (possible) would mean NONE of the four South contenders is going to the BCS title game.
Obviously someone is going to come out ahead between Alabama and Florida, at 1st and 5th in the BCS. What happens though if ‘Bama loses to LSU first?
Penn State looks to have a nice chance to run the remaining table, as does USC.
It is admittedly unlikely Boise will get to the coveted 2nd BCS standing slot. But more pressing, what to do if Ball State also goes undefeated (seemingly likely after last night)? Or if Utah too gets past TCU and BYU? What if there are 2 or 3 undefeated mid-major teams?
In the past the sole undefeated mid-major gets a nod and an “atta-boy” pat to play in a BCS game. This year might make for a real interesting scenario.
Mentioned in Austin Murphy's book 
6 comments:
Mergz,
Did you forget?? Only ONE BCS slot is allocated to the "mid-majors" (Conf USA, MAC, Mountain West, Sun Belt, and WAC).
It is HIGHLY unlikely (read "Ain't Happenin'!") that the power conferences would allow the $$$ from the BCS games to slip away.
Because---as you know better than almost ANYONE---the BCS is ALL about the Benjamins; football is merely ancillary.
y-g
Depending on who wins tonight's TCU-Utah game (since Coach Meyer came from Utah, I'm rooting for the Utes), that could decide which non-BCS team winds up going ot a BCS bowl - and I'd rather see Utah over Boise State.
If Utah goes unbeaten, there really shouldn't be an argument-- I've mentioned on here, the Utes will likely finish with a better computer number than PSU if both are unbeaten (at least in SOS). Heck forget a bid-- the Utes would have legitmate title argument (not really, but at least as valid as Penn States's).
Frankly if BSU does what some people suggest and joins the Mtn West, I think it will eventually supplant the Big East as the 6th BCS conference-- it already has a winning record against the PAC 10 over the last few years, and with BYU, UTAH, TCU and BSU would arguably have a stronger Top 4 than Big East (WVU, UL, USF and um RU or UConn or Cincy-- I guess historically SU?).
Back to Utah though, before the year I thought there were four mid-major teams that could prove they deserved a BCS bid(FSU west, UTAH, TCU and BSU); and one that could Hawaii there way to BCS bowl and get stomped (BYU); now there are two (Utah and BSU) and only one of those has a real title argument(FSU failing to run the table or at least beat Wisky hurts BSU; they did roll in Eugene-- Oregon did what UGA did against the Tide and tacked on a bunch in the 4th after it was out of reach); if TCU had beaten OU again instead of getting smacked, this Thursday's game would have more than just CPU Title implications (TCU would be Top 5, or at least they would deserve to be). The funny thing is Utah is a school that will have a very good argument to attack the BCS-- Wins Over the Possible PAC-10 champ and the single winningest program in college football history in the Big House (admittedly UM is more a name than an achievement this year) and wins over two other 10 win teams in BYU and TCU; they have done just about everything a non-BCS school can do considering teams schedule years in advance (and thus can't make sure they know who will be a great team to schedule and play).
-Socraticsilence
y-g,
The way another non-BCS team makes it (and it almost have to be Utah or Boise, there BCS wins and proven travel of there fans give them a credibility that all the other options lack-- except BYU, who has a bigger fanbase than most BCS teams) is if no BCS option is availible after the Big 12 and the SEC each provide a second team-- if Ohio State loses again this is quite possible, a team has to be in the BCS Top 16 to get an at-large bid. - Socraticsilence
OK, so Utah won last night. I wonder if there is a path that would lead to Meyer to playing against them???
Actually, Rick...
If Florida doesn't beat Bammer in Atlanta, the Gators would likely still go to the Sugar Bowl. And pitting UF v. the Utes would certainly be an intriguing matchup for the BCS powers-that-be.
y-g
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