Sunday, October 12, 2008

Sagarin was right about Gators vs. LSU

Despite Florida's embarrassing loss to Ole Miss at home a couple of weeks ago Sagarin's Predictor ratings had the Gators ranked 2nd in the country with a rating 95.70 going into the game against the Bayou Bengals. Undefeated LSU on the other hand had a rating of 81.12 (26th). According to Sagarin's formula the Gators were 17.72 points better than LSU in a home game. They in fact won by 30.

Incidentally, Sagarin's ELO_CHESS ratings (the ones used for the BCS because they don't want to include margin of victory) has the Gators ranked 46th. A huge disconnect between what Sagarin considers to be the better rating system and the one he's required by the BCS to use.

7 comments:

Chris said...

UF's ELO_CHESS rating will go way up with this big win.

DolFan 316 said...

I knew it all along, even the people who use the BCS computer formula have much better ratings of their own.

BTW kudos to whoever had Texas ahead of the Sooners in their rankings, because they had to have been the only ones going into that game.

I still think the Gators can win the SEC, which is why the Ole Miss loss hurts so much.

DolFan 316 said...

Oh yeah, that was Mergz who had Texas #1 going into the OU game. Mad props to Mergz! :)

The Guru said...

The BCS needs to do something about bringing MOV back into computers. It's a joke. The humans obviously take MOV into consideration, as they should.

As it is, Florida is #26 in ELO_CHESS this week, meaning 0 points for the BCS. Insane.

Andrew said...

MOV is a double-edged sword. It's one thing to win big, but it's another thing to run up the score. When we beat Tennessee by 24 it doesn't look like much in the MOV, but when you look at the fact that they were out of the game by the 2nd quarter it's a big win. MOV can't fully account for the story of the game. Plus you encourage coaches to leave starters in during trash time to keep the opponent from tacking on TDs.

Henry Louis Gomez said...

The Guru is right. The human polls most definitely take MoV into account. It's absurd to not have the computers do so.

DolFan 316 said...

Not to mention most teams don't play as if they even realize MOV isn't considered by computers. I honestly think a lot of coaches aren't aware of that.