Thursday, October 30, 2008

Sagarin vs. Vegas, Weekly Picks

Each week, I am pre-selecting 3 games and placing an imaginary wager of $110 (to win $100) on the team that Sagarin's Predictor Ratings suggests.

The system is explained in detail here.

The NCAA odds & lines I'm using come from

So here's this week's picks:

Florida vs. Georgia
Vegas Favorite: Florida -6.5
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Florida: 99.9
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Georgia: 85.9
Sagarin Spread (No home field adjustment, neutral site): Florida -14

Sagarin suggests: Take favored Gators and lay the 6.5 points, they're two touchdowns better than those mangy dawgs.

Iowa at Illinois
Vegas Favorite: Illinois -2.5
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Iowa: 86.84
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Illinois: 78.36
Sagarin Spread after accounting for home field (2.68 pts): Iowa -5.8

Sagarin suggests: Take the underdog Hawkeyes and get 2.5 points.

Utah at New Mexico
Vegas Favorite: Utah -7.5
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Utah: 82.38
Sagarin Predictor Rating for New Mexico: 66.15
Sagarin Spread after accounting for home field (2.68 pts): Utah -13.55
Sagarin suggests: Take the Utes and lay the 7.5.
So we're taking two favorites this week (Florida and Utah) and one underdogs (Iowa). Good luck.

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