Why the SEC’s Out-of-Conference Schedule is Irrelevant

And, what the hell is Jeff Sagarin doing anyway?

SEC critics and “haters” often point to conference members “out-of-conference” schedules as some sort of valid critique of the conference’s lack of worthiness.

I’m going to say this in real simple terms to those of you who think this way –

It doesn’t matter who you play out-of-conference if your in-conference schedule is harder than anyone else’s.

Yet once again in virtually any measure of schedule strength, SEC teams are near the top of the standings. First let’s look at Florida, who going into this season was held up to criticism for playing Western Kentucky, Troy and FAU.

Florida’s Final Strength of Schedule Rankings –

NCAA – 8th
Coffey Ratings – 2nd
Colley Matrix – 2nd
Massey Ratings – 2nd
Sagarin Ratings – 9th

Even with WKU, Troy and FAU, Florida’s average SOS per the above was 4.6.

Not that Troy was even that bad at all. Per the four computer rankers above, Troy was –

Coffey Ratings – 37th
Colley Matrix – 40th
Massey Ratings – 56th
Sagarin Ratings – 57th

Which makes Troy a better team (higher ranked) than the following according to Coffey and Colley -

UCLA, California, Georgia Tech, Oklahoma St, Louisville, Maryland, Purdue, Colorado, Arizona, Indiana, Nebraska, Washington, Washington St, Kansas St, Iowa, Miami, NC State, Stanford, Northwestern, North Carolina and of course Notre Dame.

Maybe the Pac Ten, Big Ten, ACC, Big East and Big 12 should think about scheduling Troy to improve their strengths of schedule.

(Sagarin doesn’t have them as well, but more on Mr. Sagarin later.)

Next let’s take a look at all the SEC teams and where they were ranked in strength of schedule (along with some notables) –

NCAA SOS

4. Mississippi
6. South Carolina
8. Florida
9. Kentucky
10. Alabama
19. Tennessee
24. LSU
29. Auburn
43. Vanderbilt
45. Mississippi State
65. Arkansas

39. Oklahoma
47. West Virginia
48. Ohio State
80. USC

Per the NCAA, every SEC team but one had harder schedules than WVU and OSU, and all of them significantly harder than USC.

Coffey Ratings SOS

2. Florida
4. South Carolina
4. Mississippi
6. Tennessee
10. Kentucky
11. Georgia
14. LSU
15. Alabama
19. Auburn
28. Vanderbilt
30. Mississippi State
39. Arkansas

And the same notables –

41. West Virginia
43. USC
52. Oklahoma
65. Ohio State

Per Coffey, not a single one of the BCS teams above had a schedule comparable to any SEC team.

Massey Ratings SOS

2. Florida
3. South Carolina
8. Kentucky
12. Tennessee
13. Vanderbilt
14. LSU
22. Mississippi
27. Alabama
37. Auburn
47. Mississippi St
53. Arkansas

The notables –

45. USC
46. West Virginia
49. Oklahoma
55. Ohio State

Once again the Buckeyes, who are playing for the Mythical National Title, didn’t have a schedule as hard as any single SEC team.

Colley SOS

2. Florida
3. South Carolina
6. Mississippi
11. Tennessee
8. Kentucky14. Vanderbilt
17. LSU
20. Alabama
27. Georgia
29. Auburn
40. Mississippi St
60. Arkansas

The notables –

45. West Virginia
56. Oklahoma
59. Southern Cal
72. Ohio State

Once again the SEC rates pretty well.

(It is absurd that such untested teams are playing in BCS bowls, but that is a topic for another time.)

And finally –

Sagarin Ratings SOS

8. South Carolina
9. Florida
14. Tennessee
16. Vanderbilt
21. LSU
22. Mississippi
26. Kentucky
30. Georgia
38. Alabama
47. Mississippi State
48. Auburn
64. Arkansas

And the notables –

32. USC
42. West Virginia
59. Oklahoma
60. Ohio State

We’ve mentioned it before, but Sagarin – who won’t publicly reveal his ratings methods – seems to think much more highly of the Pac Ten than any other computer rating system. He puts USC with the 32nd best schedule, significantly ahead of any other rating system. Or, compare his SOS ratings for the Cal Bears –

Sagarin – 4th
Coffey – 18th
Massey – 19th
Colley – 24th
NCAA – 55th

Whatever Sagarin is doing in his mystery numbers has Pac Ten teams consistently rated with higher SOS’s than any other system. I think it is unacceptable the BCS allows a rating system to factor into its rankings that is not transparent but again, this is a topic for another time. (Why do I mention Sagarin at all then? Because if I didn’t, some commenter would. )

The salient point is thus – stated again –

You don’t need to play “tough” out-of-conference schedules when your conference schedule is demonstrably tougher than anyone else’s.

If the SEC played only SEC opponents during the regular season, they would still have a more challenging schedule than anyone else.Or, does anyone really believe Ohio State would be a one-loss team had they played even the softest of the SEC team’s schedules?

I’d like to believe this would put the SEC “out-of-conference” weakness nonsense to bed, but it won’t. Nonsense usually has legs.

As for the obvious garbage that is the BCS system that is likewise revealed by the above – that is a topic for another time.