Tuesday, December 04, 2007

Deja Vu?

Our friend SMQ is having a little fun at our expense. He seems to find our idea that OSU is facing another beatdown at the hands of an SEC team funny. That's fine, let him have his fun. I can honestly say that I am not one bit impressed by OSU's resume. If last year's team with Troy Smith and Ted Ginn, among others, wasn't the juggernaut that the media made it to be then I don't know why we should be impressed with this year's edition in an even weaker Big 10.

So here's a comparison between the 2006 and 2007 Buckeyes. The 2006 numbers are from the pregame notes for the BCS Championship game.

OSU 2006
Total Offense 409.8
Scoring Offense 36.3

Total Defense 296.7
Scoring Defense 10.4

OSU 2007
Total Offense 397.1
Scoring Offense 32

Total Defense 225.3
Scoring Defense 10.7

Now let's look at last year's Gator squad vs. this year's LSU team.

Florida 2006
Total Offense 398.1
Scoring Offense 28.8

Total Defense 268.8
Scoring Defense 13.5

LSU 2007
Total Offense 448.2
Scoring Offense 38.7

Total Defense 283.9
Scoring Defense 19.6

Of course LSU had 2 triple overtime games. Here's LSU's statistics in regulation:

LSU 2007 (in regulation)
Total Offense 439.5
Scoring Offense 36.4

Total Defense 274.2
Scoring Defense 16.7

So what did we learn? Well that that OSU's offense scored 4 less points per game this year than last season and is playing against an LSU team that has scored 8 more points per game this year than its Gator opponent last year (after taking out points scored in OT)

On the defensive side, this year's OSU team allowed less yards but almost exactly the same amount of points as last year's. Meanwhile their opponent this year is not quite as stout on defense as last year's, allowing 3 more points per game.

Considering the on and off state of Glenn Dorsey's health, and the amount of time he's going to have to heal before facing OSU, I'd say the LSU defense that OSU will face is going to look a little different than what some of the Tigers' SEC opponents saw this season.

Given all the numbers, I like LSU's chances to thump OSU. Whether you want to attribute it to speed, quality of competition, less of a lay-off, whatever I think OSU will once again be exposed as a fraud of the Bowls and Polls system we have.

Oh and if you see Troy Smith and/or his offensive tackles from last year, make sure to tell them that SEC speed is a myth.

11 comments:

Anonymous said...

Henry,
Screw SMQ if they don't get the joke, "geographical chest-thumping" is what makes Saurian Sagacity so much fun. Ohio football sucks always has just ask LSU's defensive coordinator Bo Pelini, a former Buckeye captain headed to Nebraska's top spot or these other top BCS coaches...

BIRTHPLACE
LSU Les Miles Elyria, OHIO
Florida Urban Meyers Ashtabula, OHIO
Oklahoma Bob Stoops Youngstown, OHIO
Missouri Gary Pinkel Akron, OHIO
Illinois Zooker Loudonville, OHIO
OSU Jimmy Tressel Mentor, OHIO

Ya gotta root for the SEC kids...

Gator Duck said...

Henry, you and Mergz keep saying things like this, and yet in your polls and power ratings you have OSU right up there at the top.

Henry Gomez said...

Duck,

The power rankings are the power rankings. The computer spits them out that way. To change the way formula to get a result would be dishonest.

And Anon, that makes Ohio the cradle of coaching not the capital of speed or the home of the best players. The state of Ohio has a fine football tradition, there's no denying it. But the Big 10 is a little old-fashioned and I believe the lack of acceptance of innovation is what did OSU in last year. Did Tressel learn something, perhaps. But we can have fun in the meantime.

Anonymous said...

I am a Michigan Alumni and have been a huge Michigan fan for years now!

But having followed College Football for so long now,I cant help but agree with you.

The Big 10 has been very weak the past few years and LSU is going to gobble up Ohio State in the NC game.Like Florida did last year.

The SEC and Pac10 are without doubt the 2 best conferences in the country and IMHO, the NC game should have had the SEC winner against the Pac10 winner.

Anonymous said...

How did OSU's strength of schedule this year (featuring such powerhouses as Kent State, Youngstown State, and Akron) compare to that of last year?

Tim Tebow said...

Hey guys,
I'm up for an award this weekend, and it's kind of a big deal. Just wondering if you had any thoughts on it.

Oh, and I'm going to make your friend June Jones cry like a little girl next August. Can't wait...

Tim

Ryan Ferguson said...

I like LSU to win but if any team could roll into the Sugar Bowl fat, happy, and complacent, it's a Les Miles-coached team. LSU has enough talent on both sides of the ball to easily dominate Ohio State. However, I have to give the coaching edge in this one to Tressel, despite his choke-job in the '06 BCS title game.

Anonymous said...

anon #3,
Your probably refering to the "getting to the title game by using the cupcake theory" that's goin round. The 2006 Buckeye OOC teams included the 05 champs Texas, N. Illinois, Cincinnati, Bowling Green. OSU has USC scheduled for the next two years, then Miami (hopefully returned to power by then) for two after that. They just finished a two year home-and-away series against that top rated Texas class. The flaw this year was Washington's down year, a second of a 2 game series began in 2003 when Washington was considered a top power. Appears the Buckeye's at least attempt to schedule a top 5 OOC team every year and in turn will fly to any coast as part of a 2 game series. A quick look at LSU's OOC games this year reads Middle Tenn, Tulane, or a Louisiana Tech , come to think of it has LSU or the Gators ever even played an OOC game on the west coast in this decade or for that matter above the Mason-Dixon Line and why not? When Bowl games are practically played on their turf why can't SEC teams ever play just one OOC game in ten years off their turf?

Mike said...

Anon #3, good points on tOSU's impressive future OOC schedule... they still have to be accountable for their schedule this season, but it does show they're trying.

Can't speak for the rest of the SEC, but Florida's OOC schedule is very simple. We play and home-and-home with our main rival FSU, and its a huge financial hit to add another home-and-home (essentially losing one home game's revenue every other year) rather than just find 3 teams willing to come to you. And when schedules and finances permit, UF is more inclined to add a home-and-home with Miami to keep the rivalry somewhat alive (like in '08 and '13) rather than schedule a West Coast team. Before the SEC expanded, it was common to see random teams like USC on the OOC schedule (plus the annual Miami game), but our hands are somewhat tied now...

I'm actually envious of teams like OSU, Tennessee, and Auburn that don't have a real OOC rival and are able to schedule interesting matchups (not that Auburn ever has, but they're starting a home-and-home with WVU next year, which is a long overdue big-time OOC game for both teams).

Mergz said...

See my latest post addressing all the OOC nonsense we keep hearing.

yankeegator said...

If you're looking for Troy Smith, he was last seen wandering aimlessly about the desert floor, babbling something about trying to find his "REAL offensive line"...and cowering every time someone came by who WASN"T wearing a helmet...