Sagarin vs. Vegas, Weekly Picks

For an explanation of the Sagarin System I am using, click this link. Vegas spreads are from Pinnacle Sports and are published here.

This week's picks:

Virginia at Miami
Vegas Favorite: Miami -3.5
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Miami: 71.38
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Virginia: 74.14
Sagarin Spread after accounting for home field: Virginia -0.29

Sagarin suggests: Take the Cavaliers and the 3.5 points, this should be a pick 'em game.

Connecticut at Cincinnati
Vegas Favorite: Cincinnati -6.5
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Cincinnati: 85.44
Sagarin Predictor Rating for UConn: 84.12
Sagarin Spread: Cinci -3.79

Sagarin suggests: Take the Huskies and the 6.5 points, the spread is too high

Air Force at Notre Dame
Vegas Favorite: Air Force -3.5
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Air Force: 72.89
Sagarin Predictor Rating for ND: 61.28
Sagarin Spread after accounting for home field: Air Force -9.14

Sagarin suggests: Take the Falcons and lay the 3.5 points.

Arkansas at Tennessee
Vegas Favorite: UT -1
Sagarin Predictor Rating for UT: 78.07
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Arky: 86.01
Sagarin Spread after accounting for home field: Arkansas -5.47

Sagarin suggests: Woo Pig Sooie, take the Razorbacks and get 1 point

Florida at South Carolina
Vegas Favorite: UF -7.5
Sagarin Predictor Rating for S. Car.: 77.68
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Alabama: 91.5
Sagarin Spread after accounting for home field: Florida -11.35

Sagarin suggests: Take the Gators and lay the 7.5 points, the Gators should be double-digit favorites.

Note: Sagarin has again moved the home field adjustment number, it's now 2.47 points.

Wrap Up: We're taking two favorites (Air Force and Florida) and three underdogs (Virginia. Connecticut and Arkansas).

Check back in on Sunday to see the weekly and year to date results.