Thursday, November 01, 2007

Sagarin vs. Vegas, Weekly Picks

For an explanation of the Sagarin System I am using, click this link. Vegas spreads are from Pinnacle Sports and are published here.

This week's picks:

Nebraska at Kansas
Vegas Favorite: Kansas -20.5
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Kansas: 92.61
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Nebraska: 69.64
Sagarin Spread after accounting for home field: Kansas -25.25

Sagarin suggests: Take the Jayhawks and lay the 20.5, Nebraska is that terrible

Wisconsin at Ohio State
Vegas Favorite: OSU -15
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Wisconsin: 75.15
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Ohio State: 95.03
Sagarin Spread: OSU -19.87

Sagarin suggests: Take the Buckeyes and lay the 15, Wisconsin is that terrible

Rutgers at Connecticut
Vegas Favorite: UConn -1.5
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Rutgers: 79.33
Sagarin Predictor Rating for UConn: 82.22
Sagarin Spread after accounting for home field: UConn -5.17

Sagarin suggests: Take the Huskies and lay the 1.5 points.

Navy at Notre Dame
Vegas Favorite: Notre Dame -3
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Notre Dame: 62.86
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Navy: 66.31
Sagarin Spread after accounting for home field: Navy -1.17

Sagarin suggests: Take Navy and the 3 points, the Midshipmen should be favored.

LSU at Alabama
Vegas Favorite: LSU -7.5
Sagarin Predictor Rating for LSU: 89.63
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Alabama: 81.90
Sagarin Spread after accounting for home field: -5.45

Sagarin suggests: Take the Tide and the 7.5 points, Bama should cover it.
Note: Sagarin has again moved the home field adjustment number, it's now 2.28 points.

Wrap Up: We're taking 3 favorites (Kansas, OSU and UConn) and two underdogs (Navy and Bama).

Check back in on Sunday to see the weekly and year to date results.


Anonymous said...

How are you choosing games? Are you looking for the greatest discrepency between Sagarin and Vegas? Or are you just picking games that are interesting?

I would be interested if Sagarin's performance improves over the course of the season, as more data makes his predictor more meaningful.

Henry Gomez said...

I pick 5 games a week. Ideally I would look at all the games but it's too time consuming. So I pick games that interest me. I try to pick games from around the country. But if the Sagarin spread and the real spread are too close I don't use that game. Sag's computer was dreadful at the beginning of the season. I could have made a tidy sum betting against the recommendations. He's had good weeks on 2 of the last 3.

I did the exercise for all of the bowl games last year and he was slightly above .500

Mergz said...

Wow - Sag looks spot on this week.