Thursday, November 01, 2007

Sagarin vs. Vegas, Weekly Picks



For an explanation of the Sagarin System I am using, click this link. Vegas spreads are from Pinnacle Sports and are published here.

This week's picks:

Nebraska at Kansas
Vegas Favorite: Kansas -20.5
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Kansas: 92.61
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Nebraska: 69.64
Sagarin Spread after accounting for home field: Kansas -25.25

Sagarin suggests: Take the Jayhawks and lay the 20.5, Nebraska is that terrible

Wisconsin at Ohio State
Vegas Favorite: OSU -15
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Wisconsin: 75.15
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Ohio State: 95.03
Sagarin Spread: OSU -19.87

Sagarin suggests: Take the Buckeyes and lay the 15, Wisconsin is that terrible

Rutgers at Connecticut
Vegas Favorite: UConn -1.5
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Rutgers: 79.33
Sagarin Predictor Rating for UConn: 82.22
Sagarin Spread after accounting for home field: UConn -5.17

Sagarin suggests: Take the Huskies and lay the 1.5 points.

Navy at Notre Dame
Vegas Favorite: Notre Dame -3
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Notre Dame: 62.86
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Navy: 66.31
Sagarin Spread after accounting for home field: Navy -1.17

Sagarin suggests: Take Navy and the 3 points, the Midshipmen should be favored.

LSU at Alabama
Vegas Favorite: LSU -7.5
Sagarin Predictor Rating for LSU: 89.63
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Alabama: 81.90
Sagarin Spread after accounting for home field: -5.45

Sagarin suggests: Take the Tide and the 7.5 points, Bama should cover it.
Note: Sagarin has again moved the home field adjustment number, it's now 2.28 points.

Wrap Up: We're taking 3 favorites (Kansas, OSU and UConn) and two underdogs (Navy and Bama).

Check back in on Sunday to see the weekly and year to date results.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

How are you choosing games? Are you looking for the greatest discrepency between Sagarin and Vegas? Or are you just picking games that are interesting?

I would be interested if Sagarin's performance improves over the course of the season, as more data makes his predictor more meaningful.

Henry Gomez said...

I pick 5 games a week. Ideally I would look at all the games but it's too time consuming. So I pick games that interest me. I try to pick games from around the country. But if the Sagarin spread and the real spread are too close I don't use that game. Sag's computer was dreadful at the beginning of the season. I could have made a tidy sum betting against the recommendations. He's had good weeks on 2 of the last 3.

I did the exercise for all of the bowl games last year and he was slightly above .500

Mergz said...

Wow - Sag looks spot on this week.