Thursday, October 25, 2007

Sagarin vs. Vegas, Weekly Picks

For an explanation of the Sagarin System I am using, click this link. Vegas spreads are from Pinnacle Sports and are published here. I am posting the BC/VT match-up now because the game is tonight. Later I will post the other 4 games.

This week's picks:

Boston College at Virginia Tech
Vegas Favorite: Virginia Tech -3
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Virgina Tech: 75.86
Sagarin Predictor Rating for BC: 82.47
Sagarin Spread after accounting for home field: BC -4.53

Sagarin suggests: The Eagles should be favored, take them and 3 points.

Florida vs. Georgia
Vegas Favorite: Florida -7.5
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Florida: 90.81
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Georgia: 79.55
Sagarin Spread: Florida -11.26

Sagarin suggests: Take the Gators and lay the 7.5 points.

USC at Oregon
Vegas Favorite: Oregon -3
Sagarin Predictor Rating for USC: 81.49
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Oregon: 96.55
Sagarin Spread after accounting for home field: Oregon -17.14

Sagarin suggests: Take the Ducks and lay the 3 points, they are going to roll.

Ohio State at Penn State
Vegas Favorite: Ohio State -3.5
Sagarin Predictor Rating for OSU: 91.66
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Penn State: 80.57
Sagarin Spread after accounting for home field: OSU -9.01

Sagarin suggests: Take OSU and lay the 3.5 points.

Ball State at Illinois
Vegas Favorite: Illinois -13
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Illinois: 76.51
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Ball State: 69.54
Sagarin Spread after accounting for home field: Illinois -9.05

Sagarin suggests: Take the Cardinals and the 13 points.
Note: Sagarin has moved the home field adjustment number down from 2.93 to 2.08. Not sure if this was so last week (I usually check and don't remember if I did last week) but if it was, then my calculations last week would be wrong. Though I don't think the suggestions would have changed or the outcomes because he was pretty wrong on all five games.

Wrap Up: We're taking 3 favorites (Florida, Oregon, and OSU) and two underdogs (BC and Ball State).

Check back in on Sunday to see the weekly and year to date results.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Damn choke job by VT's coaching.