Sagarin vs. Vegas, weekly picks

For an explanation of the Sagarin System I am using, click this link. Vegas spreads are from Pinnacle Sports and are published here. I am posting the USF/Rutgers match-up now because the game is tonight. Later I will post the other 4 games.

This week's picks:

South Florida at Rutgers
Vegas Favorite: USF -2
Sagarin Predictor Rating for USF: 90.45
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Rutgers: 81.17
Sagarin Spread after accounting for home field: USF -6.35

Sagarin suggests: Take USF and lay the 2 points, the Bulls should be almost a TD better than the Scarlet Knights.

Miami at FSU
Vegas Favorite: FSU -5.0
Sagarin Predictor Rating for FSU: 75.12
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Miami: 70.21
Sagarin Spread after accounting for home field: FSU -7.84

Sagarin suggests: Take the home favorite FSU and lay the 5 points, they should cover it.

Florida at Kentucky
Vegas Favorite: UF -6.5
Sagarin Predictor Rating for UF: 90.17
Sagarin Predictor Rating for UK: 84.97
Sagarin Spread after accounting for home field: UF -2.27

Sagarin suggests: Take the home dog Wildcats and the 6.5 points

USC at Notre Dame
Vegas Favorite: USC -17.5
Sagarin Predictor Rating for USC: 79.56
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Notre Dame: 65.36
Sagarin Spread after accounting for home field: USC -11.27

Sagarin suggests: Take the home dog Notre Dame and the 17.5 points

Texas Tech at Missouri
Vegas Favorite: Missouri -3.5
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Missouri: 84.68
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Texas Tech: 87.61
Sagarin Spread after accounting for home field: Mizzou -1.41

Sagarin suggests: The spread is too high, take Texas Tech and the 3.5 points

Wrap up: We're taking 2 favorites (USF and FSU) and 3 dogs (Kentucky, Notre Dame and Texas Tech. Sagarin had his best week last week going 4-1 but is well below .500 for the season. Let's see if the ratings do in fact get more accurate as the season progresses.