Monday, October 22, 2007

BlogPoll Week 8 Regular Season

Ok, with the unbiased stuff behind us (see Power Ratingss below), we set about our weekly efforts in ranking the teams.

Our problem with the unbeaten teams is that not a single one has played a game against any team of national consequence. Of the 5 unbeaten teams, the following are the totality of ranked teams they have played this season, and ranking –

Georgia Tech 15th (BC)
Purdue 23rd (OSU)
Kansas State 24th (Kansas)

For teams with a collective 36 games played to have played only 3 ranked opponents, and none of them better than 15th, is appalling. No wonder this crew is unbeaten.

Yet, we have committed to ranking them based on resume performance, and – most importantly – this season is a long way from over. This snapshot in time is undoubtedly very impermanent, and that alone causes us not to hate it in total.

Without further complaint –

RankTeamDelta
1Ohio State 1
2Kansas 9
3Arizona State--
4Boston College--
5LSU--
6West Virginia 2
7South Florida 6
8Virginia Tech 4
9Oregon 1
10Oklahoma 1
11Missouri 2
12Florida 7
13Kentucky 6
14Texas 12
15Hawaii 1
16Virginia 2
17Connecticut 6
18Southern Cal 6
19Boise State 6
20Clemson 6
21Cincinnati 4
22Alabama 4
23Michigan 3
24Penn State 4
25South Carolina 19

Dropped Out: California (#14), Texas Tech (#15), Auburn (#21), Kansas State (#22).

Ohio State – Kansas was a surprisingly tough call. OSU’s best win and only consequential victory was against Purdue, while Kansas now has nearly equal wins at Kansas State and at Colorado.

A note about Kansas – I am well aware they are unloved by pollster and the BCS standings alike, but I think they are playing better than they are given credit for, especially on defense. In their two aforementioned games of consequence, look at the defense effort versus that of those teams average –

Kansas State – Average PPG 37, against Kansas 24.
Colorado – Average PPG 24.63, against Kansas 14.

They are holding decent teams well below their season averages point wise.

One other thing about Kansas – are the BCS results are really saying that a team that could win the Big 12 and go undefeated cannot play in the BCS title game without some sort of “help”? Because if they are, this whole system is even more an outrage. If Oklahoma, or Texas, had the same resume as Kansas, they would be at the top of the BCS standings.

I hate the BCS.

That said, with my defense of Kansas, they will likely get spanked at Texas A&M this weekend.

Hawaii is my only unbeaten not in the top 4, as they have played a slate that would shame a lower division school.

I don’t mete out the punishment inflicted on the South Florida Bulls that the national polls did. They lost a very close game at Rutgers, and still have a far better win collection than virtually any other team here.

As for the rest, I looked at every single game the teams played, and came up with what you see. Generally speaking, unbeaten teams were favored over 1 loss, and 1 loss over 2 loss, unless the single loss (say to Stanford) was worse than the 2 (say to Auburn and LSU).

Controversial, I’m sure. Finished, it is surely not.

2 comments:

uf gator dmd said...

Why WVU over USF when USF beat WVU and each team has only 1 loss (both respectable losses).

Year2 said...

Kansas isn't higher in the BCS because of the humans, not the computers. The computer polls have the Jayhawks at 7, while the humans have them at 10 and 11. Since Kansas has some good teams ahead on the schedule, the computers will move them up if they keep winning.

If Kansas goes undefeated in the Big 12, then it will not need much help in the human polls. The Jayhawks will pass Oklahoma after beating them in the conference title game, and they will pass up the loser of the BC-VT game for sure. Arizona State and Oregon still must play, so that loser is out of the way.

Plus, a win over OU and an undefeated regular season would vault KU over any 1-loss team with the possible exception of LSU. Even then, a lot of human pollsters would be inclined to put an undefeated BCS conference champion over a 1-loss team from anywhere else, and LSU could lose again between now and the end of the season (especially in the SECCG). The Big East is weak enough that 1-loss WVU won't stay ahead of them.

That leaves the possibility of unbeaten BC or unbeaten Arizona State ahead of them. The ACC is weak enough that Kansas would probably pass up BC, leaving just Ohio State and Arizona State in between. I am assuming that OSU will go unbeaten because its defense is legit and the Big Ten is horrible.

At that point though, you have four undefeated conference champions, a highly unlikely scenario, and no one will agree on what's right. If BC and ASU don't go unbeaten then an undefeated KU team obviously will jump ahead of them.

So yes, Kansas needs "help" based on the poll today, but a lot things will happen that will take care of most of the situation. The only real concern is if KU is one of three or more undefeated teams, and the BCS can't handle that properly anyway.