Thursday, September 27, 2007

Sagarin vs. Vegas, weekly picks


For an explanation of the Sagarin System I am using, click this link. Vegas spreads are from Pinnacle Sports and are published here. By the way, the Sagarin "system" is proving to be a great way to lose money, or win it you bet against the recommendations.

This week's picks:

Alabama At Florida State
Vegas Favorite: FSU -2
Sagarin Predictor Rating for FSU: 79.54
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Bama: 81.48
Sagarin Spread after accounting for home field: FSU -0.99

Sagarin suggests: A lean toward the Tide, take Bama and the 2 points
Auburn at Florida
Vegas Favorite: Florida -17.5
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Florida: 94.3
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Auburn: 77.95
Sagarin Spread after accounting for home field: Florida -19.28

Sagarin suggests: Take the Gators and lay the 17.5 points
California at Oregon
Vegas Favorite: Oregon -6.5
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Oregon: 89.24
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Cal: 85.34
Sagarin Spread after accounting for home field: Oregon -6.83

Sagarin suggests: A slight lean toward the Ducks, take Oregon and lay the 6.5 points

Penn State at Illinois
Vegas Favorite: PSU -3.0
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Illinois: 75.28
Sagarin Predictor Rating for PSU: 76.37
Sagarin Spread after accounting for home field: Illinois -1.84

Sagarin suggests: Take the underdog Zookheads and the 3 points

Air Force at Navy
Vegas Favorite: Navy -2.5
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Air Force: 73.02
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Navy: 68.26
Sagarin Spread after accounting for home field: Air Force -1.83

Sagarin suggests: Take underdog Air Force and the 2.5 points Vegas will give you.

Wrap up: We're taking 3 underdogs (Illinois, Air Force and Alabama) and 2 favorites (Florida and Oregon).

Stay tuned for results on Sunday. Sagarin is 5-10, so far this season. We'll see if he and his computer can do better this week.

1 comment:

Jason said...

I'm slightly worried that I actually agree with him on most of those. While I have been doing good picking against his picks, I think I'll play things safe and just sit this week out.