Friday, September 07, 2007

Sagarin vs. Vegas, Weekly Picks


For an explanation of the Sagarin System I am using, click this link.

This week's picks:

Miami (FL) at Oklahoma
Vegas Favorite: Oklahoma
Vegas Spread: 10.5
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Miami: 84.46
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Oklahoma: 98.05
Sagarin Home advantage: 2.93
Sagarin Spread: Oklahoma -16.52

Sagarin suggests: Take Oklahoma and give the 10.5 points

Notre Dame at Penn State
Vegas Favorite: Penn State
Vegas Spread: 17.5
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Penn State: 88.61
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Notre Dame: 68.83
Sagarin Home advantage: 2.93
Sagarin Spread: Penn State -22.71

Sagarin suggests: Take Penn State and give the 17.5 points

Virginia Tech at LSU
Vegas Favorite: LSU
Vegas Spread: 11
Sagarin Predictor Rating for LSU: 97.39
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Va Tech: 80.25
Sagarin Home advantage: 2.93
Sagarin Spread: LSU -20.07

Sagarin suggests: Take LSU and give the 11 points

South Carolina at Georgia

Vegas Favorite: Georgia
Vegas Spread: 3.5
Sagarin Predictor Rating for Georgia: 87.26
Sagarin Predictor Rating for South Carolina: 72.73
Sagarin Home advantage: 2.93
Sagarin Spread: Georgia -17.46

Sagarin suggests: Take Georgia and give the 3.5 points

BYU at UCLA
Vegas Favorite: UCLA
Vegas Spread: 7.5
Sagarin Predictor Rating for UCLA: 87
Sagarin Predictor Rating for BYU: 79.82
Sagarin Home advantage: 2.93
Sagarin Spread: UCLA -10.11

Sagarin suggests: Take UCLA and give the 7.5 points

Wrap up: It just so happens that all five games I've selected this week fall into scenario 2. Sagarin is "suggesting" you take the home favorite in all five games because his Predictor ratings indicate that these teams will outscore their opponent by more than the Vegas spread.

Take: Oklahoma, Penn State, LSU, Georgia, and UCLA.

4 comments:

LeftLeaningLady said...

Georgia lost and UCLA is not winning by 7.5 at this time. Looks like your picks are about as good as mine this week!

Go Gators!

Henry Gomez said...

Lady, they aren't MY picks. They are Jeff Sagarin's computer's picks AKA Hal 9000. I'm just the interpreter and reporter.

LeftLeaningLady said...

Well my picks were lousy this week, so I can feel bad for Jeff.. ok, not so much. The computer system is stupid!

Better luck next week.

Henry Gomez said...

Well I don't know about stupid. A 14% return in just one day's work ain't too bad.