Saturday, September 15, 2007

Sagarin vs. Vegas, Weekly Results


For an explanation of the Sagarin System I am using, click this link. Vegas spreads are from Pinnacle Sports and are published here.

The Sagarin system took a bath this week. Below is a recap of the picks and the results.

This week's picks:

Tennessee at Florida
Sagarin Pick: Florida -8
Result: Florida easily covered as the Gators shellacked Tennessee, +$100

Notre Dame at Michigan
Sagarin Pick: Notre Dame +7.5
Result: Notre Dame gets embarrassed in the big house and Lloyd Carr avoids going 0-3 while putting Charlies Weis in that position, -$110

USC at Nebraska
Sagarin Pick: Nebraska +10
Result: Nebraska gets embarrassed at home, -$110

Illinois at Syracuse
Sagarin Pick: Syracuse +12.5
Result: Zook managed to win his second game in a row and easily covered, -$110

Iowa at Iowa State
Sagarin Pick: Iowa -17.5
Result: Iowa State upsets their in-state rival in Ames, -$110
Weekly results: We went 1-4 using Sagarin's "Predictor" ratings and would have lost $340 or 61.8% of the $550 we put at risk.

Year to date results:
So far Sagarin is 4-6 and we would have lost $260 or 23.6% of the $1,100 we put at risk. Ouch.


5 comments:

Jason said...

The results so far at least seem to confirm that Jeff Sagarin is every bit the intellectual blowhard I think he is. At best you seem likely to break even, maybe go over it some slight 5% or so, which is hardly a worthwhile amount unless you are betting a very large amount week in and out. Even that may be a stretch.

Henry Gomez said...

Hard to tell. First of all I'm hand selecting a very small number of games each week. Secondly his model is supposed to get stronger as the season progresses and Strength of Schedule (SoS) becomes a better defined variable. In other words, as a better relationship is established between teams. We'll see. This is "for entertainment only."

Jason said...

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them get better as time goes on. What I will be interested in seeing is if the percentage of improvement is any higher then the improvement in the accuracy of any other ranking.

I seem to recall a double digit "point" prediction for OSU beating Florida last year, but I do think he correctly called Texas in the UT-USC game. I honestly can't remember going further back.

Henry Gomez said...

In terms of other rankings, I'm not aware of others that attempt to predict margin of victory between any two teams. But I may be mistaken. That's why I am measuring the Sagarin Rankings against vegas lines which are essentially rankings made up by casinos (often using similar systems as Sagarin). Of course Vegas lines also take into account betting trends of the public since their job isn't to pick winners but to set a line where both pools get equal action.

As far as the UF/OSU match-up from last year Sagarin said OSU was 11.2 points better than UF on a neutral field. Even after UF beat OSU Sagarin's predictor ranking for OSU was higher than for Florida. Go figure. The Vegas spread for the game was 7.5

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