Friday, January 05, 2007

Sagarin vs. Vegas Update

Quick update on how the "Sagarin wagering system" I devised is working this bowl season. To see what I'm talking about read the first post, and check the last one too.

In the Orange Bowl game between Wake Forest and Louisville you had to lay 10 points to take Louisville. Sagarin suggests that Louisville is in fact 17 points better than Wake. You would have laid the 10 and taken Louisville. Louisville was in fact 11 points better than Wake. So it was close but the Sag-meister covered on this one. +$100.

In the Sugar Bowl LSU was favored by 9.5 points. Sagarin's computer believed that LSU was only 7.33 points better than Notre Dame. So if you believed Sagarin you would have taken Notre Dame to cover +9.5. Unfortunately Notre Dame would have needed 27.5 points to cover this blowout. -$110.

So after 29 games (of which we used the system for 28), the "Sagarin system" (not endorsed by Sagarin himself, of course) is 17-11 and $490 in the black.

There's 3 more games left and Sagarin "suggests":

Western Michigan +7.5
Ohio +6
Ohio State -7.5

I will update and leave you with some final observations when I get back from Glendale.

No comments: