Tuesday, January 02, 2007

Sagarin versus Vegas, updated and corrected

Ok, those of you who read this blog know I've been trying to figure out if Sagarin's Predictor ratings can be an aid to the sports gambler. To do this we are taking freely available Sagarin information and letting it inform our opinions on the Bowl Games. We are making imaginary $110 wagers (to win $100) on the teams that Sagarin "suggests". Suggests is in quotes because this is not endorsed by Jeff Sagarin.

I have to announce a couple of changes that I've made since I began this series of posts.

First, I made a transcription error in the original spread sheet that gave us the "Sagarin Spread" for each game. The game affected was Clemson/Kentucky. The result of the correction of the error is that instead of picking Kentucky in that game a follower of this "system" would have picked Clemson. Instead of being a winner on that bet, you would have been a loser.

I have since gone back and added notes to each previous post and updated the W-L and dollar standings for the "system".

The other thing I have done is gone back and retroactively conducted the exercise for games that had been played before I came up with this cockamamie idea. I wanted to do that at the beginning but I couldn't find the Vegas spreads for the games that had already been played. Over the weekend I was reading the Orlando Sentinel and found a chart with all the Bowl Games of the season and it listed the point spreads, including those already played. In most cases the spreads were the same as the ones I had used from Pinnacle Sports. In the cases where there was a difference I checked and it didn't make a difference in the outcome of the wagers. So for the sake of consistency I have no converted over to the spreads that were published in Sunday December 31st's Orland Sentinel.

Now for the fun stuff.

In the first 12 games of the Bowl Season, the Sagarin-informed wagering "system" went 8-4, so you'd have been up $360.

We used the system to bet 13 of the next 14 games (remember we decided not to play the Tennessee/Penn State game because the system gave us no clear indictator of who to take). In those games the system went 7-6 (+40).

So, going into last night's Fiesta Bowl, after wagering on 25 games we'd be 15-10 and up $400.

In the Fiesta Bowl the system would have advised us to pick Boise State since Vegas was requiring you to lay 7 points if you wanted Oklahoma and Sagarin's computer said that Oklahoma was only 5 points better than Boise.

Well, Boise won outright in one of the most exciting games I've ever seen.

Following the system, you'd be 16-10 and up $500.

Here's the updated spreadsheet with all the games on it for those of you nerds out there that are interested. Click on the image to see full size.

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