Monday, January 01, 2007

Sagarin versus Vegas, Update

NOTE: This post has been updated to account for a transcription error. You will see strike through text on the corrected information.

This an update on what happens when you use Sagarin's "predictor" ratings to help you make wagers (legally, of course) as described here. But first I want to let you know that over the weekend I found a newspaper (Sunday's Orlando Sentinel) that published all the Vegas lines for all the Bowl Games (including the ones that have been already played) and so now I'll be able to go back and retroactively do an analysis for the whole bowl season and not just 19 games. Look for that in a future post.

So far the Sagarin "system" is 5-3 (+$170) 4-4 (-$40).

Now let's recap what Sagarin "suggested" for the last several Bowl games.

Nevada +3.5. The Wolfpack lost but covered, so that's +$100

Nebraska +1.5. The Cornhuskers lost and failed to cover so that's -$110

We didn't take anyone in the Tennessee/Penn State game because the Vegas spread and the Sagarin spread were almost identical (less than 1/2 point) so there was no clear direction.

Wisconsin +2.5. The Badgers not only covered but won outright, so that's +$100.

West Virginia -11. The Mountaineers escaped with a win but failed to cover, -$110.

USC -1. USC easily covered in ther second-half romp. That's +$100.

So, to date, the Sagarin "system" is 8-5 7-6 and you'd be +250 +$40.

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