The Game

As I am leaving tomorrow for Vegas (Viva!), blog posts between now and The Game will be brief, if at all.

What I have to say next won’t make many of my fellow Gator fans happy. Know that I say it as a total Gator homer, a longtime fan and donor who has attended in excess of 200 Gator games in person. I bleed Orange & Blue.

I also think Ohio State is going to win this game.

I don’t want it to happen. I am going to cheer my freakin’ head off, hope, pray, and swear it doesn’t happen.

But I am a realist, and 22 some years of watching Gator games have made me that way. I was there for the 1980’s; I was at Nebraska in 1995, at FSU in 1996, the Orange Bowl in 2003, hell I was even at Mississippi State when Zook got himself canned in 2004.

I went to Tallahassee 8 consecutive times before getting my first win there (but I did get to see the 31-31 tie!).

What currently gives me hope is that Florida has played - and beaten - a far better team in LSU than Ohio State faced this year. That LSU team that shut down Notre Dame last night, while scoring 41 on them, could only manage to score 10 points against the Gators.

Were I to rank a composite of our opponents, I think we could fairly say the following -

1. LSU
2. Auburn
3. Michigan
4. Arkansas
5. Texas
6. Penn State
7. Tennessee
8. Georgia

Of course, the Gators lost to the second team on this list, but it was close, and in very hostile territory. Texas, OSU’s big early season victory, proved itself not as capable as first thought with 2 latter loses. Arkansas proved much the same.

Much has been made of Wisconsin’s victory over Arkansas, but it is entirely irrelevant to an analysis between Ohio State and Florida, as the Buckeye’s did not play the Badgers. Of the top 8 teams “we” played, I think Florida has faced the tougher group.

I also take some solace in the fact that Florida held LSU to 10 points, and Auburn to essentially 20 (barring that last second junk TD). Florida’s defense did not give up a single TD to Auburn in the game. Michigan, on the other hand, scored 39 on Ohio State (with 7 of that being a meaningless late TD also).

Why then do I think the Gators will lose?

Troy Smith.


Statistically, Troy Smith is not the best QB in the nation - but he is darn close. Smith is ranked 3rd (or 4th if you count Russell’s game last night) nationally.

However, there is no doubt that Troy Smith is the best Quarterback in this game. Chris Leak is a respectable 21st in QB rating nationally, but lacks the skills of Smith, especially the mobility. Smith runs the OSU offense like a machine, and he has 3 full years under Tressel’s system. Leak, in two years under Meyer’s system, has at times seemed very ill suited to run the offense. And Leak has the propensity to make the big mistake, like the shuttle pass against Arkansas. Or, more damagingly, the late interception against Auburn when we could have driven the field for the win. Smith seems to avoid such meltdowns.

One statistic in particular reveals the definite edge Ohio State has over Florida - the so called Scoring Offense statistic. The stat is somewhat misleading, as it simply takes points scored bya team, and divides them by games played. In other words, in includes points scored by or against special teams, and points scored by defense.

In total offense (as measured by yards a game), Florida and Ohio State are nearly identical, at 410 yards per game for OSU and 398 for Florida. However, it is the aforementioned Scoring Offense stat where the problem shows up.

Florida ranks 32nd in Scoring Offense a game, with 28.8 points per game. Ohio State, on the other hand, ranks 7th with 36.3.

When the yard totals are nearly identical, where does the 7.5 points per game less for Florida come from?

Mistakes on offense and special teams, that’s where. How many times has Florida’s offense drove the field to have Hetland miss an easy kick? Or Leak committed a turnover at an inopportune time? (Fumble or not at Auburn, that was bad ball handling).

Simply put, Troy Smith handles the ball better than Chris Leak, and OSU’s special teams are less prone to error than Florida’s.

Regardless, I will root like never before for our Gators, hoping this analysis is wrong, looking for the big break, praying Meyer has devised a game plan to get the win.

Statistically, both teams will be facing the best offense in the other team they have seen all year. And, contrary to what many believe, I think this will be a low scoring game, as the most overlooked strength of OSU is their defenses.

Finally, despite any rhetoric to the contrary, both teams and fans should know this very well - the best team either will face this year will be the team on the opposite sideline come Monday night.

Two great programs, playing for the first time ever, in the BCS Title Game.

May it be a game of legendary stature, a game for the ages.

Go Gators!