Friday, December 29, 2006

Sagarin versus Vegas, Update

Here's the update on our project to track Sagarin's success in picking 19 Bowl games against the Vegas spreads. For more info on how we're conducting this exercise click here.

NOTE: The information below has been subsequently updated to account for a transcription error. You will see Strike through text where the corrections were made.

5 games today. To refresh your memory here are the Vegas favorites and point spreads along with which side you would take if you believed in Sagarin's "Predictor" rankings. Each imaginary wager is $110 to win $100.

Vegas Favorite, Spread, Sagarin suggests
Clemson, 10.5, Kentucky Clemson
Oregon State, 3.5, Missouri
South Carolina, 5, South Carolina
Purdue, 1, Maryland
Texas Tech, 7.5, Minnesota

Vegas had Clemson favored and so did Sagarin but by less by more. You would have taken Kentucky Clemson and gotten 10.5 points. Kentucky won outright (28-20) and you would have won $100 lost $110.

Vegas had Oregon State favored and so did Sagarin but by less. You would have taken Missouri and gotten 3.5 points. Missouri lost but covered (38-39) and you would have won $100.

Vegas had South Carolina favored and so did Sagarin but by more. You would have taken South Carolina and given 5 points. South Carolina won and covered (44-36) and you would have won $100.

Vegas had Purdue favored but Sagarin had Maryland favored. You would have taken Maryland and gotten 1 point. Maryland won and easily covered (24-7) and you would have won $100.

Vegas had Texas Tech favored and so did Sagarin but by less. You would have taken Minnesota and gotten 7.5 points. Minnesota lost in OT (41-44) but covered and you would have won $100.

So far Sagarin is kicking some serious ass. If you had followed my logic and Sagarin's ratings and placed (5) $110 wagers on these five games you'd be up $500 $390 right now.

Well keep a running tab. There's 14 more games to go.

1 comment:

KG said...

DAMN!!! Is it too late for you to head to Vegas? I'll wire you some money when you get there. ;-)