Friday, December 29, 2006

Man versus Machine, Part 1

Mergz has been following the results of Jeff Sagarin's computerized "Predictor" rankings this Bowl season. I have been watching with keen interest and decided to put his machine to the test. I am participating in ESPN's Bowl Mania picks contest. I won't get into the details here but suffice it to say that in the contest you have to pick the winners of the Bowls straight up (no point spreads) so I am tracking my flawed and biased results against Sagarin's "Predictor" straight up.

So far here's my picks and results (Winners in Green, incorrect picks in Red):

TCU vs. Northern Illinois
Brigham Young vs. Oregon
Rice vs. Troy
South Florida vs. East Carolina
New Mexico vs. San Jose State
Tulsa vs. Utah
Arizona State vs. Hawaii
Middle Tennessee St vs. Central Michigan
Florida State vs. UCLA
Oklahoma State vs. Alabama
California vs. Texas A&M
Rutgers vs. Kansas State

So far I'm 7-5. I was actually tied with Sagarin going into yesterday but had a bad day, 1-2.

So far Sagarin's results are:

TCU vs. Northern Illinois
Brigham Young vs. Oregon
Rice vs. Troy
South Florida vs. East Carolina
New Mexico vs. San Jose State
Tulsa vs. Utah
Arizona State vs. Hawaii
Middle Tennessee St vs. Central Michigan
Florida State vs. UCLA
Oklahoma State vs. Alabama
California vs. Texas A&M
Rutgers vs. Kansas State

So the machine is 9-3. My anti-Pac 10 bias crept in on my pick of Texas A&M and my SEC bias crept in on the Alabama game. That's the difference so far. There's still 20 Bowl games to go though.

For the record my picks for the next few games are:

Kentucky
Oregon State
South Carolina
Texas Tech
Maryland
Navy
Texas
Georgia
Miami
Tennessee
Auburn
West Virginia
Arkansas
Michigan
Oklahoma

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