Tuesday, November 14, 2006

Detecting the BCS Frauds

I know, I shouldn't care about the fraudulent beauty contest that is the BCS system but I do care. It pisses me off to no end that these pollsters have such staunchly held opinions about programs without digging deeper than the very surface. So I decided to look at the W-L records of some notable teams that are ranked highly in the BCS.

The undefeated teams:

1. Ohio State: OSU's opponents have amassed a record of 55-63. That's a winning percentage of .466, almost the lowest of any of the teams analyzed (virtually a tie with Boise State's opponents). But hey Tressel looks good in a sweater vest. If OSU loses to Michigan this weekend they have no business playing a rematch for the BCS title.

2. Michigan: Opponents of the Wolverines have accrued the exact inverse record of OSU's opponents, 63-55. That's a very respectable .534 winning percentage.

6. Rutgers: The Scarlet knights are undefeated against opponents with a record of 46-43, a .517 percentage.

12. Boise State: BSU's opponents include schools I didn't even know existed like Sacramento State. And who knew that Idaho's nickname was "The Vandals"? Anywho, their opponents are 46-53 for the season, a .465 winning percentage.

The one loss teams:

3. Southern Cal: Opponents of the Trojans are a combined 52-41, that's good enough for a .559 percentage. Their one loss came at the hands of 6-4 Oregon State.

4. Florida: Gator opponents have a record of 61-43. That's a .587 winning percentage, the best of any of the teams analyzed. The Gators lost to 9-2 Auburn.

5. Notre Dame: Irish opponents are 55-48. That represents a winning percentage of .534. Cheesburger Charlie Weiss only regrets that he couldn't get the Coast Guard Academy on his schedule instead of undefeated Michigan which drubbed the Domers 47-21 early in the season.

7. Arkansas: The Hogs have had a relatively easy schedule for an SEC team this year. Their opponents combined record is 49-52, a .485 percentage. Their one loss was a big one (50-14) to USC.

So here's what I think based on this analysis:

Michigan should be the Number 1 team in the country.

Rutgers has a real beef with the BCS, they have a legitimate claim at number 2 if they finish undefeated.

OSU should be 3rd until they meet and get beat by Michigan. Then Tressel can send the vest to the cleaners and we can stop talking about a rematch that will never happen.

Florida should be ranked 4th based on the fact they have played the toughest schedule of any of these teams and their only loss was to Auburn.

Southern Cal should be 5th and Notre Dame should be trying to get a (quasi) service academy like The Citadel to play instead of the Trojans at the end of the season.

Boise State should be in BCS Bowl game but they merit zero consideration for the big game.

Arkansas should be grateful that they are cruising into the SEC Championship game, the schedule Gods won't be this generous again for quite some time.

3 comments:

Mergz said...

Very nice post - an idea after my own heart.

Can't believe you thougt of it first! :)

Anonymous said...

ok like the post but you forgot some one loss teams that are still not being talked about in a the craziness that is the BS I mean BCS (wisconsin 59-69) Louisville (44-36)
West Virginia ( 40-40)

FishFan-GatorMan said...

Jack you are correct, I did leave those teams out but only because it was very late last night and I needed to get to sleep. I appreciate the info. Obviously Wisconsin's opponents don't look too hot and neither do West Virginia's.

Louisville has acquitted itself quite nicely against good competition but lost to undefeated Rutgers. As long as Rutgers wins out, Louisville is out of the discussion.

And as much as it pains me, as a gator fan, every other team should be out of the discussion if Rutgers wins out. Florida had its chance and lost a close game to Auburn. The only way Florida should get in there is Rutgers stumbles. But that's my opinion and as we know the only opinions that count are the poll voters and the computers. And it looks like they want Notre Dame or USC.