Tuesday, November 14, 2006

A closer look

My previous post was about the combined W-L records of opponents of the various teams that are making noise in the BCS. But as I was falling asleep I realized that one of the flaws of this analysis is that a team gets credit for playing a good team whether they win or lose to that good team. So I've tinkered a little with it and here are the W-L records for opponents the 1-loss teams have beaten, not played.

3. Southern Cal: When you take out their loss to Oregon State the winning percentage of USC opponents goes down to .554 (46-37).

4. Florida: The teams Florida has beaten have compiled a .559 winning percentage (52-41).

5. Notre Dame: Taking out the loss to Michigan, Irish opponents are 44-48 (.478)

7. Arkansas: Teams Arkansas has beaten have a combined lousy record of 41-51 (.446)

Conclusions: This model makes it a closer call between Florida and USC, but I still give Florida the nod at the number 4 spot (behind Michigan, Rutgers and Ohio State) based on the fact that they lost to a good Auburn team and USC lost to a middling Oregon State.

Notre Dame has even less of a beef now. The ESPN hype machine loves Brady Quinn but the Irish haven't done anything special this season except win a couple of "thrilling games" against inferior competition.

Arkansas: Fuggetaboutit!

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