Tuesday, December 25, 2012

Hoge is way off base on Tebow

It's official, Merril Hoge took too many hits to the head and it's affecting his analysis. He goes off on Tim Tebow claiming that Tebow is:

"as phony as a three-dollar bill" and that the New York Jets didn't realize "how bad Tim Tebow was" when they traded for him.
As a Gator I want Tim Tebow to succeed. That's no surprise.  But I find the situations that Tebow has found himself in are completely unfair. This blog was built on numbers so let's take a look.

I remember NFL experts saying that it takes 3 years to develop a pro quarterback.  Tim Tebow is wrapping up his third season but note that he has not had one complete training camp as the presumed starter so he begins with an incredible handicap. He's also had three head coaches, two offensive coordinators and two systems to learn in those three years. Again, this is not what you would consider optimal for grooming a QB.

In his three seasons (really spot duty in parts of two seasons with the Broncos plus this abomination of season with Jets) Tebow has completed 47.9% of his passes. He's thrown 17 TDs and 9 interceptions. His career QB rating is 75.3.  Additionally he's rushed for 989 yards, 12 TDs and lost 6 fumbles.

Now let's compare that to Andrew Luck the first overall pick of the NFL draft by the Indianapolis Colts.  Luck, in contrast to Tebow, came in highly touted was penciled in as the opening day starter and has received all of the support one would expect for a franchise QB. Luck has completed 54.3% of his passes. He's thrown 21 TDs and 18 interceptions. His QB rating is 75.6. He's rushed for 254 yards, 5 TDs and lost 5 fumbles.

Both QBs have low completion percentages though Tebow's is admittedly uglier. But in terms of taking care of the ball it's a different story. Tebow's TD to interception ratio is close to 2:1 (1.88) while Luck's is closer to 1:1 (1.16).

Layer in the rushing and Tebow has accounted for 29 TDs and turned the ball over 15 times while Luck has accounted for 26 TDs and turned the ball over 23 times. So Tebow actually wins in this comparison when you look at TDs vs. turnovers (+14 vs +3 for Luck).

And the QB ratings are virtually identical but one player is viewed as an oddity and the other is expected to be the next Johnny Unitas or Peyton Manning for the Colts franchise.

The Miami Dolphins also picked a quarterback in the first round, Ryan Tannehill.  The Dolphins and the local media are very high on Tannehill's performance thus far and his potential. They gave him the starting job in training camp, bypassing the more experience Matt Moore.  Here's Tannehill's numbers:

58.4% completion percentage, 12 TDs, 12 INTs and a QBR of 76.9.  He's rushed for 203 yards, 2 TDs and lost 3 fumbles.  His TD to INT ratio is exactly 1:1 and his total TD vs. turnovers is -1.

So I'm not really understanding how Merril Hoge or anyone else can project whether or not Tebow can legitimately play quarterback in the league. Who's to say what Tebow might be with a coach and coordinator that believe in him and a full training camp as the starter under his belt? Remember that pundits like Hoge (though perhaps not him specifically) raved about players like Tim Couch, Brady Quinn, Ryan Leaf and Jamarcus Russell.

Unfortunately, even if Tebow ends up in a better situation it's going to be on a bad team and he'll have to pick up his third offense in four years. One thing is certain though, the vitriol in his remarks indicates that Merril Hoge has some sort of axe to grind with Tebow.

4 comments:

Emily said...

I miss this blog. Are you guys posting at all elsewhere?

Henry Louis Gomez said...

Nope. I had the intent to start blogging about the Gators and CF again this season but life intruded.

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