Monday, November 09, 2009

Power Rankings – Week 10

Presented are our week 10 Power Rankings, with the methodology explained here.

Remember these are an effort to gauge the relative quality of the teams – as in who would beat who in a neutral setting. They are not a merit related ranking system. Hence, teams like Virginia Tech come in higher than they might on a merit basis.

Our week 10 results, with comments to follow.

1 Florida 9 0 2.2177
2 Texas 9 0 2.0723
3 TCU 9 0 1.9983
4 Alabama 9 0 1.9961
5 Virginia Tech 6 3 1.9083
6 Penn St. 8 2 1.8479
7 Ohio St. 8 2 1.8296
8 Oklahoma 5 4 1.8013
9 Oregon 7 2 1.7680
10 Clemson 6 3 1.6905
11 Cincinnati 9 0 1.6583
12 LSU 7 2 1.6194
13 Iowa 9 1 1.6056
14 Wisconsin 7 2 1.5951
15 South Fla. 6 2 1.5759
16 Oklahoma St. 7 2 1.5746
17 Oregon St. 6 3 1.5531
18 Miami (FL) 7 2 1.5329
19 Arizona 6 2 1.5228
20 Houston 8 1 1.5199
21 Arkansas 5 4 1.4800
22 Pittsburgh 8 1 1.4572
23 Boise St. 9 0 1.4536
24 Georgia Tech 9 1 1.4522
25 Southern California 7 2 1.4500

The ranking scores (last column) can be used to compare individual teams. For instance by this method, Florida is 7% “better” than Texas (2.2177/2.0723).

I’ve used these scores in the past for “investment” purposes and been relatively successful. Without getting too involved, I would estimate Florida was 3.9 points “better” than Texas on a neutral field. So if Florida was to play at Texas, we would be looking at a pick’em.

In the past I’ve put up predictions based on this for big games, and if there is any interest I may do so again.

Why so high for 3 loss Virginia Tech? Well the Hokies have played one of the toughest schedules to date I have ever seen. They have played teams with a record of 47-17, or 0.7343. Florida this year so far, ranked 18th in the NCAA, has played teams with a 35-25, or 0.5833.

By way of contrast Oklahoma, which played last year’s toughest schedule, ended up with a 0.6551 opponent’s records, so a number over 0.70 is virtually without precedent. However VT’s cumulative opposition right now is 0.6092, so their ranking will fall as the year progresses (likewise with Oklahoma now at 8th).

2 comments:

Amos said...

I'm surprised to see Cincy so low, especially with TCU coming in so high, I keep thinking that they've been about equal all year as far as beating their somewhat weak schedule.

What was '06 Florida's SoS with that method?

Mergz said...

Cincy is going to move up with WVU and Pitt still on their schedule. That will enhance their SOS, but even with that they would be 50th nationally based on cumulative oppositio (they are 73rd right now having played teams that are 26-28).

Florida had a 0.6711 in 2006, one of the highest final SOS's I have seen, and 0.400 better than anyone else that year. So you can see how good VT's is right now.