The One Man Fallacy

My morning reading brought me across our friend Senator Blutarsky’s “Get the Picture” Georgia blog and his comments on Urban Meyer’s new salary extension. While the good Senator gives credit where due – saying Meyer deserved his new contract – he once again raises the ongoing suspicion that Meyer may, someday, leave Florida.

However, the comments to the post are even more telling, with Georgia fans speculating what might happen when Tebow graduates (will Meyer stay?), and even adding their personal hopes for the eventual departure of Coach Meyer.

All of this seems eerily familiar. History does indeed repeat.

In 2002 I received an email from a friend (who happens to be a Notre Dame alumnus) that, with the retirement of Steve Spurrier, the Gators were done. “Once in a lifetime coach” my friend wrote, tauntingly, “Welcome back to the pack”.

So how did that prediction work out?

Now I am by no means suggesting that Urban Meyer isn’t a great football coach. He is. However what fascinates me is the hyper-focus fans – and people in general –put on an individual when it comes to crediting them, or blaming them, for larger events. The credit or reproach the President of the United States gets is a prefect example of this phenomenon. Presidential approval rises and falls inversely with gasoline prices, for example, while the President himself has virtually no control over the price of a barrel of oil.

College coaches, while having more direct input, aren’t much different. As I recall there was elation in Athens equal to the deflation in Gainesville when Spurrier resigned after the 2001 season.

And, in the seven years since, the Dawgs are 2-5 against the Gators. Even Zook went 2-1.

Meanwhile Steve Spurrier, who went 122-27-1 while at Florida, had a disastrous stint with the Washington Redskins, and then returned to the SEC in 2005 where he has since gone 28-21, or only 6 losses less than his entire time at Florida.

Moreover, with Spurrier as a Gamecock having gone 1-3 against Georgia, I doubt there is much current concern in Athens whether he stays at South Carolina or not.

Our rivals have similar feelings when it comes to Tim Tebow, believing that his absence from the Gators will serve as a panacea for their travails against Florida. Yet Tebow, as a starter, is 1-1 against Georgia. A win against the Bulldogs this year would make him the equal of Chris Leak’s 2-1 against Georgia.

While Leak and Tebow might be thought to have little in common on a skills level, what they did have in common, at least with regard to their championships, was Charlie Strong, or more specifically his defenses. Against Ohio State in 2006 and Oklahoma this past season the Gator defense gave up the same number of points – 14. In other words, offensively, 15 points or more was a winner for Florida in each contest. Florida has scored at least 15 points in its last 45 consecutive games, with the last time it failed to do against Georgia in 2005, a game Florida actually won 14-10. Even the much maligned Ron Zook failed to score less than 14 points only 3 times at Florida.

Now I’m not saying any quarterback could have led the Gators to the championships of 2006 and 2008, but I am saying that the single most important aspect of both those Gator teams was the defense. Consider the following –

Tim Tebow 2007 – 3286 yards passing, 32 passing TD’s, 66.9% completion AND 895 yards rushing, 23 rushing TD’s.

Tim Tebow 2008 – 2746 yards passing, 30 passing TD’s, 64.4% completion AND 673 yards rushing, 12 rushing TD’s.

2007 was statistically the better year in every category for Tebow (he won the Heisman, after all) but the Gators went 9-4. 2008 was statistically, although a great year, inferior to 2007 and all Florida had to show for it was 13-1 and a SEC and “national” title.

You don’t hear much talk of opposing fans wanting our defense to graduate, or Charlie Strong to take another job, but as far as the opposition’s success is concerned these events would be statistically more important.

Florida’s success is a compilation of many things of which Meyer and Tebow are a part. Of equal importance are our first rate facilities, our donor support and our athletic department. (Yes, Foley did hire Ron Zook. Foley also fired Ron Zook, and hired Meyer. Good athletic departments are smart and flexible.)

Most important, however, is our ability to recruit top flight talent right at home. As I have stated before it is no coincidence that over the past 25 years the state of Florida’s big 3 (UF, UM and FSU) have won 10 of the 25 “national” titles, and played for 6 others. Those 10 titles were won by 7 different coaches. Two of those coaches remain at their respective schools (Bowden and Meyer) and the 4 of the other five (Schnellenberger, Erickson, Coker and Spurrier) have had limited success elsewhere, generously stated. The other coach – Jimmy Johnson – of course found NFL success, but it can hardly be stated coaching has been the reason for college football success in the state of Florida.

Further, the top states for college football talent in addition to Florida year-in and year-out are widely considered to be Texas and California (certainly they have the most top level recruits every year), with Ohio, Louisiana, and Pennsylvania also known to be talent rich. Consider where the top national contenders and winners have been the past couple decades. See a theme?

Players always move on, coaches eventually do. Talent bases are much more durable. In Georgia’s case their problems with Florida didn’t end with Spurrier’s departure, nor did South Carolina’s problems with Georgia end with the arrival of the same. No single individual, whether coach or player is responsible for the entire fortune of any program.

As to my Notre Dame friend's assertions of early 2002, Florida appears to have had two "once in a lifetime coaches" in a span thankfully far shorter than that. What he thought impossible has in fact become reality, but not for the reasons he surmised.

That's why I don't lose any sleep over Meyer leaving, or Tebow graduating.