Friday, July 24, 2009

2009 Preseason Poll

Using the same methodology we did last year, the following is our preseason poll -


1 Florida
2 Southern Cal
3 Texas
4 Alabama
5 Georgia
6 Ohio State
7 LSU
8 Florida State
9 Oklahoma
10 Miami-FL
11 Clemson
12 Michigan State
13 Notre Dame
14 North Carolina
15 Tennessee
16 Nebraska
17 South Carolina
18 TCU
19 Texas Tech
20 Utah
21 Michigan
22 West Virginia
23 Penn State
24 Virginia Tech
25 California

(And before you freak out, read my prior post about the relatively strong results of last year's efforts).

Interestingly our methodology (now 3 years old) comes up with Florida as number 1 which will likely match most polling consensus. I also feel pretty comfortable with USC at 2 (despite their defensive losses), and Texas at 3.

Obviously having 3 SEC teams in slots 4, 5 and 7 leads to a nearly impossible situation – someone is going to knock someone out. And ‘Bama and Georgia’s talent losses give me pause.

I’m also not entirely comfortable with FSU and Miami, who often end up high in my rankings (due to their supposedly successful recruiting), but my guess is at least one of them ends up in the top 20.

Michigan State is interesting at 12, and I don’t know enough to say “yea” or “nea” there. Notre Dame, with their easy schedule, will probably end up in the top 20 with a BCS bowl game (which they will lose).

North Carolina comes in at 14, and I see a breakthrough year for them.

As for the rest, who knows? But then again if we have seen anything in virtually all of these polls about 40% of the top 25 preseason aren’t there at the end.

I plan on using this for my initial BlogPoll vote pending possible methodology modifications.

6 comments:

ScottN said...

While overall an interesting and plausible ranking I do have two comments:

If Tennessee ends up ranked (post-bowl) in the top 20 I will be shocked. Not enough offense.

If SoCal ends up ranked (pre-bowl) in the top five I will be even more shocked. Not enough defense.

Love the blog, always intelligent.

Cliff said...

Maybe the most shocking thing for me was not seeing Ole Miss. But I understand that you're applying a methodology here, so I'm not arguing.

Mergz said...

I also can't imagine Tennessee will do very well. As for USC I'm not sure who is going to beat them other than the usual once-a-year upset by some vastly inferior squad.

Ole Miss came in about 26th or 27th (away from my home computer) so they were close. I do think them the team to beat in the West this year.

Gameday Housing said...

This is awesome. It would be interesting to see the past data and how things shook out.

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The PayDirt said...

I understand it is methodology but there is 4 teams in your top 13 I could see being unranked by years end (Clemson, Fla State & Miami and Notre Dame)
I would tweak the math on it a little bit because this is a little flawed (I know it can't be perfect)

Georgia, the 4 mentioned above, Tennessee, Nebraska & Michigan way too high

Oklahoma, Va. Tech, TCU, Penn State and Cal way too low.

And Ole Miss being off completely is the biggest shocker. The only team to beat the defending champs with a returning star QB and a favorable schedule, I'm pretty sure they will end up ranked.

Mergz said...

I wouldn't be surprised if 4 of the top 13 are unranked by year end - in the typical poll (AP, Coaches) on average 11 of the top 25 are unranked by year's end, so 4 of the top 13 would be inline with expectations (5 of the top 13 in the BlogPoll ended unranked last year).

I started using this method because history has shown the preseason top 25 to be mostly guesswork. Rather than guess I am trying to create something consistent.