It was close.
Sure when you look at the final BCS standings with Florida 2nd at .9479, and Texas 3rd at .9289 the cushion looks comfortable. However, when expressed in percentages it is only a 2% margin (.9479/.9289-1). Oklahoma, by contrast, was 3% ahead of Florida.
When you look at the components, you can see how indeed it was the human element that prevailed over the machines (computers). While the rankings in the computers make it appear close between Florida and Texas (UF 3rd, UT 2nd), the margins tell a different story.
Harris Poll – Florida lead over Texas 6.1%
USA Today Poll – Florida lead over Texas 5.2%
Computer Polls – Texas lead over Florida 5.6%
In the computer polls Florida rated .890 to Texas’ .940. In fact our computer rating was far worse than I had guessed it might be at .890, as in my post entitled “It’s Not a Sure Thing” I guessed we would be .920, which was Alabama’s computer rating prior to the SEC Championship game. Texas, in fact, kept their exact same pre-championship game ratings in the computers of .940, while Oklahoma gained (.980 to 1.000).
I was correct in my guess that the Colley Matrix would place us third.
So in reality Florida can thank the voters of the Harris poll which propelled us to first place thus assuring the title game slot.
The computers really didn’t like Florida this year, and our rankings in the 6 computer polls that make up the BCS were –
Anderson & Hester – 4th
Richard Billingsley – 2nd
Colley Matrix – 3rd
Kenneth Massey – 5th
Jeff Sagarin – 4th
Dr. Peter Wolfe – 4th
Texas was ranked higher in every computer poll than Florida expect for Billingsley.
Put another way, it took BOTH of the human polls to get Florida over the top. If only the Coaches’ Poll and the computer polls were involved it would have been Oklahoma against Texas as illustrated thus –
Texas average USA Today/Computers - .9317
Florida average USA Today/Computers - . 9306
UPDATE: In regard to my post about Spurrier not voting us number one, his failure to do so actually cost us 1st place in the USA Today Coaches’ Poll, as we were a single point (1482 to 1481) behind Oklahoma.
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
It was close.