Florida – Oklahoma: The Offenses

First in a series of statistical comparisons between the BCS Title game opponents

Oklahoma is an unstoppable offense, while Florida presents a stout defense, or so is the conventional wisdom forming about the BCS title game this year.

Just how true is that wisdom?

While I have, as of yet, been unable to statistically solve the “sub-plot” of whether Big 12 offenses are strong because Big 12 defenses are weak, or correspondingly SEC defenses are strong because SEC offenses are weak, we can at least compare the salient statistics of the teams. In doing our comparisons for this series I intend to look beyond the obvious statistics toward those elements which I think could constitute the difference.

The Offenses

Everyone “knows” Oklahoma has the number one offense in the NCAA, or at least anyone who has spent 2 minutes watching ESPN. This slice of conventional wisdom is based on the NCAA FBS Scoring Offenses which does indeed rank the Sooner’s first. What is often overlooked is the same statistic ranks the Gators third.

NCAA Scoring Offense Ranks

1. Oklahoma – 54 ppg
3. Florida – 45.15 ppg

As has been well reported Oklahoma – at 702 total points this season – is having one of the best scoring seasons in NCAA history. Not to mention that, although the difference between NCAA ranks here is slim – 1st to 3rd – the difference in points is huge at 8.85 ppg. In fact the same nearly 9 points per game is the difference between Florida in 3rd and Nebraska in 18th at 36 ppg.

There is no doubt Oklahoma is a scoring machine (though Florida is no slouch).

Just how effective an offense a team possesses is better indicated by our next statistic, Total Offense.

NCAA Total Offense Ranks

3. Oklahoma – 562.08 ypg
18. Florida – 442.38 ypg

With a nearly 120 more yards per game average Oklahoma appears the much more effective offense. However a deeper look at the statistics here tells a more favorable story for the Gators. Oklahoma ran an NCAA high 1036 plays this season, while Florida had a total of 800 offensive plays in 2008.

An extra 236 plays between two teams which both played 13 games is a startling number, and it equals an extra 18 offensive plays per game. The number is made even more startling by the fact that the two teams possessed the ball for an almost identical average amount of time this year, 29:46 for Oklahoma and 29:44 for Florida (72nd and 73rd in the NCAA). However it can be explained by the mixture of passing to rushing offensive utilization, which we will cover later.

Taking into account the number of plays, Florida’s is the slightly more effective offense –

Florida average yards per play – 7.19
Oklahoma average yards per play – 7.05

If the NCAA was to rank teams by yards per play, Florida would be 3rd in the nation, while Oklahoma would be 7th.

In other words, when it comes to yards gained per play run, these teams are nearly identical.

NCAA Rushing Offense Ranks

11. Florida – 229.77 ypg
19. Oklahoma – 205.54 ypg

Once again this doesn’t tell the whole story. Florida ran the ball 501 times this year to Oklahoma’s 560, giving us –

Florida average yards per rush – 5.96
Oklahoma average yards per rush – 4.77

By this metric Florida is much better than Oklahoma, and would rank 3rd nationally if the NCAA kept such a statistic, while Oklahoma would be 27th. Florida in fact has better yards per carry than such “running” powerhouses as Navy (5.37), West Virginia (5.49) and Georgia Tech (5.65).

NCAA Passing Offense Ranks

3. Oklahoma – 356.5 ypg
61. Florida – 212.6 ypg

The biggest disparity – on its face – is the extra 143.9 ypg the Sooners get from passing over Florida. Yet, again, it doesn’t tell the whole story.

Oklahoma average yards per pass attempted – 9.74
Florida average yards per pass attempted – 9.24

Once again, were this an NCAA stat, Oklahoma would rank 3rd while Florida would rank 5th, much, much closer than the Passing Offense ranks indicate.

This set of statistics also demonstrate how Oklahoma had so many more total plays this season than Florida with a virtually identical time of possession – Oklahoma threw the ball a lot more, resulting in more clock stoppage.

Oklahoma Pass Attempts – 476 (324 complete, or 68.07%)
Florida Pass Attempts – 299 (193 complete, or 64.55%)

NCAA Passing Efficiency Ranks

1. Oklahoma – 180.92
5. Florida – 174.36

Here the teams are very close, at the top of the NCAA, as one would expect from a deeper examination of the passing stats as performed above.

Overall Offensive Efficiency – Points per Play

A statistic I devised to demonstrate overall offensive efficiency is Points per Play which measures exactly as advertised – how many points a team scores for each play run. In this statistic Florida is number one in the nation, and Oklahoma 2nd. Since the NCAA doesn’t keep this stat, here are your top 10 (with ppp)-

1 Florida 0.73
2 Oklahoma 0.68
3 Missouri 0.62
4 Tulsa 0.61
5 Oklahoma St. 0.61
6 Texas 0.61
7 Texas Tech 0.59
8 Penn St. 0.58
9 Boise St. 0.57
10 Oregon 0.57

Conclusion – Florida – Oklahoma Offenses

While Oklahoma averages many more points per game, Florida averages about the same in yards per play and yards per pass attempt, while being significantly better in yards per rush. Florida is also slightly better in Points per Play.

These offenses are evenly matched despite the media narrative.

Next – The Defenses