Monday, October 13, 2008

Keep ‘Em Coming

I will consider all comments (civil ones, at least) in my final poll, so keep the comments coming.

On a couple so far –

Mhoram said...

I confess confusion. How does Georgia Tech move up 9 after barely beating a bad 1AA team and Georgia drop 8 after dominating a bad-to-middlin Tennessee team

Resume voting can swing wildly from week to week. I am considering much more than the last win, I also consider who they played before, and what happened to them. I wish the “delta” wasn’t featured, as I never consider myself as moving teams “up or down”. I consider myself putting them exactly where they currently belong .

In the case of GT, their sole loss was to VT, and they have a decent win over 1 loss BC. But they might be too high, which I will consider.

In the case of Georgia, UT is not a “bad-to-middlin” team, they are downright awful. While the score was close, if you look at the box Georgia did better than I first thought. So that will go into my thinking. However, Georgia has not beat a single modestly decent team this year. What is their marquee win? Arizona State, who is now 2-4? South Carolina? They fell relative to other teams because their body of work got much weaker.

DolFan 316 said...

Not that I think USC should be in the top 5, but they have the same record as the Buckeyes and beat the Buckeyes by 32, therefore they should be higher than the Buckeyes IMO. Also you are aware that Georgia Tech had to gum its way over Gardner-Webb 10-7, right? Gardner-Webb! Agreed about LSU though. I think they've allowed season highs for scoring to Auburn *and* Mississippi State. That's just sad.

One of the problems of ranking is taking into account all of the various complexities of the relationships between wins and losses. The way I look at the Ohio State – USC situation is that USC lost to a worse team than the Bucks did, even though that team was USC. That may sound counter-intuitive, but remember where the mere “so-and-so beat so-and-so” can lead you. Does Oregon State deserve to be ahead of both teams? That’s what a mere head-to-head decision would lead us to. As Henry said somewhere in the comments, no need to get bent out of shape by a week 7 poll, and this will shake out better as the season goes along.

That said, I am taking another look at Ohio State’s record. I may be overrating their wins. That’s why we go through this process.

Moreover, I will look at GT a little harder too.

Thanks, and keep ‘em coming.


Jesse W. said...

gotta agree with the GT comment; they will be great in the future, but struggled versus Gardner-Webb!

Jesse W.

Scully said...

Your top 3 is right on, after that.....

Boise State's quality win? Oregon? A team starting their 4th QB.

Okie St. looked good against Mizzou but they haven't played anyone yet. The best team they played before Saturday? Houston.

Texas Tech - struggled against Nebraska, which is a horrific team.

Utah - haven't played anyone worth while, except Oregon St. and they struggled at home, at night in that game.

Michigan St. has played one decent team and they lost.

Georgia Tech - see above.

UNC - lost their starting QB and best playmaker on offense. Signature win? UConn?

To quote Clark Griswald - "This is crazy. This is crazy."

Mergz said...

Scully - And you would put in?

(Before you answer, once again we are only at week 7, where I feel losses count about 2 times a win. By Week 10 or so, when there are very few no or one loss teams left, I feel differnt. It will sort itself out).

Mergz said...

Moreover, let me direct our newest fellow blogger to Henry's post - "Long rambling post about polls, championships and the irony of Saurian selectors"

Overall we are trying to simulate a playoff in our polling. While it is trying to simulate the unsimulatable (that sounds dirty), having a loss at this point in the season is damn near unforgivable, and having two losses knocks you out entirely. Why? Because with the exception of LSU last year, 2 losses has always been the disqualifier. At this point, in my opinion, having even one loss is inexcuably bad.

HOWEVER, this will sort itself out! If we get to the end of the year, and Boise is still undefeated, and USC has that sole loss, USC is going to get the nod over Boise. If USC has 2 losses, they won't. It's really that simple.

DolFan 316 said...

Wow, I didn't expect to get singled out. Not in anything besides a "this guy is a complete idiot" way, that is :-)

But my comment was not intended to be insulting or uncivil, and I'm glad it apparently wasn't taken that way.

All I know is that in between moments of watching PSU's curbstomping of Wisconsin I kept thinking how much that would hurt the Buckeyes' SOS, since Wisconsin was supposed to be their "marquee" win.

BUT...since PSU and the Buckeyes are going to face off in 2 weeks anyway, and if USC loses another one they should be dropped out of the poll altogether, Mergz is right. It will all play out in the end.