Wednesday, December 12, 2007

Tebow – Better than you think

I’m not surprised at the bitter reaction by many non-Florida fans to Tim Tebow winning the Heisman. In fact, as one who rooted against Peyton Manning to win the same award, I can appreciate the feeling. That’s all part of football here in the south.

Additionally, I can appreciate that the Heisman, perhaps even more so than the BCS, is a highly subjective enterprise. One player’s accomplishments may not impress various voters, and that is just fine.

But to leave Tebow entirely off your ballot based on the reasoning that his running touchdowns were mostly done to inflate his stats? Well sir, that merely makes you look like a fool and an idiot.


For you see sir, Tim Tebow is the best passing Heisman winner.

Ever.

First of all there is that all time record passing efficiency rating for a Heisman winner. At 177.85, no other Heisman winner has even come close to it. In fact, no Heisman winner I could locate has come within 15 points of it.

But for arguments sake, let’s just say Tebow was not the dual threat runner he is. Let’s just say he was purely a passing quarterback who maybe had 1 or 2 running TD’s via the usual goal-line QB sneaks.

Well, here is how Tebow’s passing statistics ONLY stand up to every other Heisman winning quarterback this century (Tebow’s projections come from ESPN.com) –


Tebow has about the same average number of completions of the names on this list, in far fewer attempts, for a completion percentage that is better than any other Heisman winner since 2000. He stands to end the season with more total passing yardage than Smith, Leinart or Crouch. His yards per attempt, at nearly 10 yards, is better than anyone on the list.

If Tebow reaches 31 TD’s he will be near the totals of most of the players on this list, save Jason White. He has as few current interceptions as anyone on the list.

And lastly, that passer rating again. Historic.

Without running the ball a single time, Tebow was better than any quarterback Heisman winner this century . Period.

If anything, his running ability overshadowed his brilliant passing performance.The only other dual threat quarterback on this list was the 2001 winner Crouch, who ended the year with 18 rushing TD’s, or 4 fewer than Tebow, while throwing for 22 fewer TD passes.

And contrary to Mr. McGrath’s assertions in his article, Tebow’s numbers came against some of the hardest opponents any Heisman winner this century has faced. Looking at Florida’s strength of schedule we find –

Florida’s Final Strength of Schedule Rankings

NCAA – 8th
Coffey Ratings – 2nd
Colley Matrix – 2nd
Massey Ratings – 2nd
Sagarin Ratings – 9th

Looking back at the NCAA schedule ratings of the above Heisman winners, the SOS they faced in their Heisman campaign was –

Smith – 24th
Leinart – 18th
White – 21st
Palmer – 1st
Crouch – 12th
Weinke – 3rd

According to the NCAA, Tebow faced a harder schedule than 4 of these winners.

Lastly, it is perhaps least surprising that our old rival – the Georgia Bulldogs – seem to harbor the most bitterness towards the Tebow selection. (Though this site has a very funny Fark, the commentary is dripping with pure acrimony. h/t Get the Picture).


I can understand Georgia’s resentfulness, now that we have passed their tally of 2 Heisman winners. Not to mention that Tebow is within striking distance of one of Georgia’s most hallowed records – the career TD rushing record of one Herschel Walker. Walker has 49, while Tebow currently stands at 30 (before playing Michigan).


Wouldn’t that be something if Tebow was challenging for that record by say, oh – late October?


10 comments:

Anonymous said...

Mergz - I'm interested on how you projected 2 Td's and 1 Int in our bowl game. I guess if you were keeping QB Rating as a constant I could see it - it just seems weird since on a game by game basis his average would be 2.64 Td's and 0.55 Int's.

-Cliff

Mergz said...

Cliff -

It wasn't me - it was ESPN.com that did the projections.

I'm hoping it will be better ;)

JJ Gator said...

Naturally there's a bit of sour grapes over the fact that the other three didn't win from other fanbases along with the other smack talk, but as far as ESPN goes that's their biased opinion.

Georgia Buckeye said...

The arguments for D-Mac over Tebow all rang hollow.

"D-Mac doesn't have a competant QB, so he has to play two roles."

Yes, Tebow didn't have a good tailback, and he filled that role.

"Defenses keyed in on D-Mac on every play, since he was the only threat."

And Tebow was Florida's primary threat.

"D-Mac had to share carries with Jones, otherwise he would have better stats."

Didn't you just say that McFadden was his team's only threat?

"Lots of short TD runs"

I'm sure that goes both ways, for one. For another, is it not a credit to Tebow that his running was exceptionally reliable at the goal line? For yet another, should we ignore McFadden's passing success, because they came out of a gimmick formation?

McFadden is very good, and he could have won the award certain years. For example, his 2007 resume stands up well against Troy Smith or Jason White.

But when you are comparing McFadden to Tebow, you are comparing two exceptional and versatile players that carried their teams.

The difference is that Tebow was beyond exceptional. He has done far more than had ever been done by a QB. McFadden loses because he was merely exceptional.

McFadden will be a better pro, but that is irrelevant. Tebow was the most outstanding player this year.

Tommy said...

We're 2-1 against Florida Heisman winners. As far as I'm concerned, let 'em move the ceremony to Gainesville.

Anonymous said...

My bad Mergz, how dare I associate their stylings as yours! Let's go with 5 Td's (plus 2 rushing) and no picks.

-Cliff

Anonymous said...

You said no Heisman winner's passing efficiency rating comes close to Tebow's 177.85.

That is sort of true. Danny's rating was 178 in 95 (non-Heisman year) and 170.6 in his Heisman year- which is better than the 15 points you referenced.

Anonymous said...

The only other farces left to discuss and justify are the All-American teams.

yankeegator said...

To continue georgia buckeyes "D-Mac v. TT" diatribe, I submit to the court a post from ZFZ:

"ok, back on original topic...

Not to beat a dead horse, but the two primary "Heisman moments" that McFadden supporters keep talking about are the USCe game and the 3-OT win v. LSU.

BUT:

---McFadden did have an SEC-record-tying 321 yards v. the Lamecocks. But his teammate Felix Jones ALSO had 160 yards and scored 3 TDs against a HORRIBLE defensive "effort" from the Chickens. And Tebow ran for 120 against them and scored FIVE freaking TDs.
"But Mc Fadden threw a TD pass in that game, too." Oh...okay.
In addition to his FIVE TDs on the ground, Timmy threw for over 300 yards in that game, too, for ANOTHER 2 TDs.


---"RunDMC" 's OTHER "signature" moment was his "heroic" effort v. Lucky Les & his Tigahs.
BUT...
on the game-winning play---the PAT in the 3rd OT---

McFADDEN WAS NOT EVEN ON THE FREAKING FIELD!!!

THAT'S the "best" player in the country?


Sorry...even WITHOUT my O&B glasses...I'm NOT buying it.

yankeegator said...

Oh...I almost forgot...

Not only is McGrath an idiot...he's an idiot who:
a)doesn't understand how the scoring works in football. Which doesn't really matter, because he
b)apparently can't count.

He's whining because Tebow scored when his team was up 13 in the 4th quarter???

Duuuuude...
that's only TWO plays from a loss.

If you don't believe me, go have a long talk with your intellectual equal---the Zooker; HE can tell you ALL about snatching defeat from the jaws of victory in the final minutes of a game.

And isn't a "Heisman candidate" SUPPOSED to carry his team and close out victories?