Sunday, December 02, 2007

Georgia, no room to cry.

We're already hearing the complaints from Georgia fans about the likelihood that LSU will leapfrog the Dawgs and make it into the BCS CG to play Ohio State.

They point to the fact that LSU was 7th in last week's BCS standings while Georgia was 4th. They are asking how LSU could possibly jump 5 spots in the standings. The answer of course is simple mathematics plus a good measure of subjectivity.

In last week's coaches poll, which makes up a third of the BCS standings calculus, Georgia was likewise ranked 4th and LSU was ranked 7th. With the top two teams losing, OSU slips into the top spot with the coaches. But Georgia stays at number 4 with LSU and Oklahoma leapfrogging them.

Quick question, what do OSU, LSU and Oklahoma all have in common? They are all conference champions. What do LSU and Oklahoma have in common? They both have two losses (same as Georgia) but they both played this week. Unless they have their heads in the sand Georgia fans must know that an idle team is always susceptible to being leapfrogged by teams that are playing. Not only that, Oklahoma and LSU both put themselves at risk by playing a 13th game. 11-2 translates into a .846 winning percentage while 10-2 translates into a .833 winning percentage. In short, LSU had a better record than Georgia and has proven itself, by conference rules, to be the best team in the conference.

Georgia fans will have even less of a beef when the Harris Interactive poll comes out. The other human poll used in the BCS standings had LSU 5th behind 4th ranked Georgia last week. The resulting leapfrog will be even less dramatic.

I understand the disappointment of Georgia fans but they aren't thinking clearly. Last year Michigan faced almost the same exact situation. They got leapfrogged by Florida, largely because Florida got an opportunity to play a meanginful game before a national TV audience.

Georgia would have had it's chance to make its case if the Dawgs had simply taken care of business against Tennessee. The Dawgs will have a BCS berth in their pockets and they beat their arch rival Florida in the process. That's a successful year. Be happy Dawg fans and take it out on UT next year. But save your crying about the "national championship". You weren't robbed.

UPDATE: The Sagarin ratings are out and Virginia Tech is number 1, followed by LSU at number 2 and then Oklahoma, OSU, Kansas, Missouri and then Georgia at number 7. On an unrelated note, Florida was ranked 2nd in Sagarin's PREDICTOR ratings which are no longer used by the BCS.

7 comments:

Tommy said...

I'm not sure who these Georgia fans are that you're referencing. In recent days, I think I'm the only Dawg who's posted here about Georgia's BCS chances, and since my comments were referenced below, perhaps this is all directed at me. Otherwise, maybe you could link to some of these Georgia commenters who feel so "robbed."

Let's be fair: You and I were in agreement that Georgia's chances at the BCS were rather dim, given that they were dependent on three outcomes of varying likelihood -- losses by Mizzou, WVU and LSU. Where we disagreed was on whether a two-loss conference also-ran should be barred by rule from playing in the title game. As I noted then, no such provision exists in any other college or professional sport, so foisting such a provision on college football seems like one more dollup of arbitrariness in a sport that already drowning in arbitrariness.

Regardless, I haven't run into many Georgia fans who feel wronged by LSU getting the presumptive nod. Perhaps I'm one of these folks you claim have his head in the sand, but the fact that we were ever in this discussion has been gravy to me, given that we are less than two months removed from getting drummed out of Knoxville. I suspect that more than a few Dawgs share my bemusement at how the season has turned out for us.

Although reasonable arguments can be made both ways, I wouldn't begin to try to tell an LSU fan why Georgia should go to the title game instead of the Tigers. As you note, their accomplishments roughly match ours, with the addition of them beating Tennessee in the SEC title game. Had that contest taken a different outcome, sure, I might've had more ammo for Vols fans, but that's neither here nor there.

Henry Gomez said...

Check some of the Bulldog blogs and message boards. There was also a comment at EDSBS in which a Dawg fan was doing an amazing logical gymnastics act. All I said was that the voters aren't going to allow a non-Conference champ into the big game again. It's not a written rule but one they observe.

If Tennessee had won the game yesterday you'd probably be rose bowling against USC.

Anyway, have fun. You guys had a great season, beat the Gators and are headed for one of the Big Bowls.

The other anonymous said...

I have no beef with LSU being in the MNC game. But it should be noted that the voters are manipulating the standings - LSU was not picked because the voters think they are the better team, but because UGA did not win the SEC.

The real question of the bowl season is this: which curse will trump in the MNC game? The longstanding one that holds that tOSU cannot beat an SEC team, or the one from this season that says that #2 always loses?

Henry Gomez said...

#1 lost a few times this season too. And yes the voters are manipulating the process. That's why this whole system sucks. Why don't we have polls in pro football or in Major League Baseball. Why don't we have a BCS for NCAA Basketball?

DolFan 316 said...

Henry, I have to disagree--the Rose Bowl was dead-set on taking three-loss Illinois if the Buckeyes somehow got into the title game and never even considered anyone else to face USC.

Ah well. At least Jawja gets to face Hawaii in a game where if they win nobody will be impressed at all but if they lose it's the ultimate humiliation. Seems only fair :-)

They don't even have the biggest gripe. To me that would be Mizzou fans, whose team entered Saturday at #1 and will be left out of a BCS bowl in favor of a team they beat last week despite finishing higher in the final BCS rankings.

Anonymous said...

As much as it kills me, I need to root for UGA in the Sugar Bowl, especially after the Hawai'i coach (June Jones) has been spouting some anti-Florida smack and bad-mouthing Tim Tebow.

SonuvaDawg said...

You're right. We weren't robbed. But dammit, WE WERE ROBBED!!