Friday, November 09, 2007

Weekend Predictor

Basking in the glow of pretty much exactly calling WVU’s 7 point win over Louisville we throw caution to the wind and unveil our Predictor Model’s calls for the action in the top ten games this weekend.

The same caveats as before apply – this is a new model, and not thoroughly tested.

I have not looked at the lines in any of these games, so this is purely off our model. Additionally as our model predicts “neutral field” results I am adding 2.5 points to the home team for the scores below.

Saturday Predictor Model

Illinois at # 1Ohio State – OSU +11.4
Louisiana Tech at #2 LSU – LSU + 27.1
#4 Kansas at Oklahoma State – Kansas +2.7
Baylor at #5 Oklahoma – Oklahoma +19.4
Texas A&M at #6 Missouri – Missou + 9.6
#8 Boston College at Maryland – BC +9.8
#9 Arizona State at UCLA – ASU + 9.0
#18 Auburn at # 10 Georgia – UGA + 4.5

And for tonight’s games

Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan – BGSU +4.1
Rutgers at Army – Rutgers + 13

The reason I am releasing this information is as a “test” (if you will) of the accuracy of our weekly Power Ratings. In our Power Rankings, for instance, we had West Virginia 12th ranked with a 1.973099 rating, and Louisville 30th ranked with a 1.737430. The national polls had WVU higher ranked at 7th in the BCS and 6th in the AP, while Louisville wasn’t even in the “Others Receiving Votes” category. Our Power Rankings and predictor said that WVU wasn’t that good, and the game would be much closer than the 17 points Vegas saw it. Closer in fact than both conventional and our own “wisdom” thought. And it was.

Lastly, if you cause yourself heat ache, pecuniary loss and/or marital difficulties by regarding any of the above as “advice” we are strictly not responsible. Unless of course it works out in your favor.

1 comment:

Year2 said...

Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan – BGSU +4.1
Rutgers at Army – Rutgers + 13

Result: BGSU wins by 7. Reasonably close.
Result: Rutgers wins by 35. Not as close, but I looked it up and Vegas had Rutgers by 19 or so. Colossal blowouts are the outliers that no one's models get right, especially when it's a BCS conference school against a non-BCS conference school.

Also, good call on TCU/BYU - predicted BYU by 6, Cougars win by 5. There's some potential here.