Monday, November 05, 2007

SEC East Scenarios - Updated

Georgia Tennessee controls its own destiny in the SEC East right now, but a stumble by the Bulldogs Vols could propel the Gators into the SEC title game depending on what happens with Tennessee UGA. Let's look at the most likely scenarios that assume the Gators beat the Old Ball Coach and the Cocks on Saturday.

If Georgia were to lose to Auburn or Kentucky, they would still have the edge over Florida in the head to head tiebreaker but 2-loss Tennessee would be ahead of both teams. So we need Tennessee to lose 1 of their remaining conference games (Arky, Vandy, or Kentucky) to force a 3-way, 3-loss tie, which Florida would win by virtue of the fact that only one of the Gators' losses was in the division. If the Vols lose 2 games, then there would be no 3-way tie and we'd lose the head to head tiebreaker with Georgia.

The only way Florida wins the East with Tennessee dropping 2 or more of their 3 remaining games is if Georgia drops both of its remaining conference games.

In short, we need to root for a 3-way tie with Georgia and Tennessee or a 2-way tie with Tennessee. This weekend we need to root for Arkansas to beat UT and Auburn to beat UGA. Of course the Gators need to take care of their own business against South Carolina.

We'll take next week when it comes.

UPDATE: Our readers are best. At least they are the best in catching our mistakes. This comment is correct:

Actually, Tennessee controls its destiny in the East, not Georgia. They both have 2 losses, but the Vols have the tiebreaker.


Additionally, the Gators could advance in a 4-tie situation with UT, UK and UGA.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Actually, Tennessee controls its destiny in the East, not Georgia. They both have 2 losses, but the Vols have the tiebreaker. Simplest solution for the Gators would be for them to beat the Gamecocks and for Kentucky to win out, since that would leave them a 2-way tie with Kentucky, 3-way tie with Georgia and Kentucky or with Tennessee and Kentucky, or a 4-way tie with UT, UGA, and UK depending on how Tennessee and Georgia perform in their other conference games. In any of these scenarios, the Gators would have the tie-breaker I think.
In a two way tie with Kentucky, Florida has the head to head.
In a three way tie with Georgia and Kentucky, Georgia would have all 3 losses in the East and would be dropped, leaving a two way tie with Kentucky, whom we beat head to head.
In a three way tie with Kentucky and Tennessee, we beat both of them and so would have the tiebreaker.
Finally, in a four way tie, it would move to the head to head records among the tied teams. We would have a 2-1 record, Kentucky would have a 2-1 record, Tennessee would have a 1-2 record, and Georgia would have a 1-2 record. Tennessee and Georgia would be reduced, leaving us with our head to head win over Kentucky.
In short, Go Gators and Go Wildcats!

Henry Gomez said...

Thanks anon.

Anonymous said...

JJ Gator here.....

This Gator fan will be saying "War Eagle" and "Pig Sooie" this weekend as well as "GO GATORS!!!!" A little help from the SEC West will be well appreciated if Auburn can beat Georgia and Arkansas can beat Tennessee as far as we're concerned.

As far as Kentucky goes, any help they can give us will be appreciated as well - especially in their upcoming game against Tennessee.

The South Carolina game puts us in a "must-win" situation if we're to stay alive in the SEC East race, and knowing what's at stake I expect our kids to bring their "A" game to Columbia on Saturday night.

GO GATORS!!!!!!