Sunday, October 07, 2007

Speaking of Sagarin

As you probably know, one of the computer rankings used to calculate the BCS standings is provided by Jeff Sagarin. It is NOT however the same ranking I use in my weekly Vegas feature. The BCS stopped using that one, which is known as "PREDICTOR" or PURE POINTS, because it takes margin of victory (MoV) into account. Such being the case, the BCS felt that it gave coaches a reason to run up scores, as if there wasn't incentive enough already. Can you say style points?

So, in order to be more "politically correct" (his words) Sagarin developed the ELO_CHESS model to use for BCS purposes though he believes the "PREDICTOR" ratings to be more accurate in determining the outcome of games.

Here's Sagarin's current top 25 according to ELO_CHESS, the one used in the BCS:

1. LSU
2. South Florida
3. Missouri
4. South Carolina
5. Cal
6. Ohio State
7. Illinois
8. Boston College
9. Virginia Tech
10. Mississippi State
11. Arizona State
12. West Virginia
13. Kansas
14. Connecticut
15. Oregon
16. Cincinnati
17. Auburn
18. Kentucky
19. North Dakota State
20. Indiana
21. Florida
22. Florida State
23. Purdue
24. Virginia
25. Wisconsin
What would the BlogPoll Czar, Brian from MGoBlog, think if someone submitted the above ballot? Even more astounding than USF being number 2 and Mizzou being number 3 is the presence of undefeated 1AA North Dakota State at 19, two spots above Florida.

Connecticut comes in at number 14, exactly where Mergz ranked them on last week's ballot. Notable by their absence are the Trojans of Southern California.

So keep the fact that these rankings are used in the BCS to help determine which two teams will play in the "National Championship" game next time you want to trash our rationale for ranking teams.


Anonymous said...

Of the 6 BCS Computer Models, I put the most faith in Colley. It seems the least biased, the most understandable, and produces the most realistic outcomes. A&H is usually decent too.

Sagarin is annoying, because he doesn't publish his methods. But he's still better than Billingsly, who bases ratings on the previous season. Blargh.

Troy said...

I know it seems crazy, but from a resume ranking standpoint, USF probably does have the second best profile. I'm less certain about Mizzou having the third best resume (Nebraska is bad, though that Illinois win is looking better and better).

And honestly, while USC probably should'nt fall out of the top 25, that's far far FAR less ridiculous than USC at #7, based on what they've actually done so far. Hell, I think North Dakota State at #19 is more defensible than USC at #7.

Henry Gomez said...

USC was number 7 on our blogpoll based on their resume at the time. Mergz has hinted that they are going to be very low if they are on it at all this week.