Sunday, October 14, 2007

Sagarin vs. Vegas, Weekly Results


For an explanation of the Sagarin System I am using, click this link. Vegas spreads are from Pinnacle Sports and are published here.

This week's results:

South Carolina at North Carolina
Vegas Favorite: Cocks -7
Sagarin suggested: Take the Tar Heels +7.

Result: Cocks win by 6, Tar Heels cover. +$100
Illinois at Iowa
Vegas Favorite: Illinois -3.5
Sagarin suggested: Take Iowa and the 3.5 points.

Result: Iowa wins outright. +$100
Purdue at Michigan
Vegas Favorite: Michigan -5.5
Sagarin suggested: Take Purdue and get 5.5 points.

Result: Michigan handles Purdue. -$110

Florida State at Wake Forest
Vegas Favorite: FSU -5.5
Sagarin suggested: Take the underdog Wake Forest and the 5.5 points.

Result: Wake wins outright. +$100

Georgia Tech at Miami
Vegas Favorite: Miami -2.5
Sagarin suggested: Take the road dog Georgia Tech and the 2.5 points.

Result: Georgia Tech wins outright. +$110
Weekly Summary: Sagarin had his best week thus far: 4-1. Following his advice we would have won $290 this week.

Year to date summary:
12-18. We'd be down $780 if we followed Sagarin's advice for the 30 games I've selected to date.

Playing the other side: If we'd gone against Sagarin's picks we'd be 18-12 and up $480.

Stay tuned for next weekends picks which should be posted by Thursday. As always, I'm open to suggestions on which games to select.


3 comments:

Anonymous said...

I hate to say it but it could be possible sagarins rankings become much more accurate over time as a better data set becomes available

shaunl said...

from his site - "The overall RATING is a synthesis of the two diametrical opposites, ELO-CHESS and PURE POINTS (PREDICTOR)." - diametrical opposites? This guy is a total moron

Henry Gomez said...

Anon #1,

No doubt that his computer model should get better as the data put into it becomes richer with actual game results.

Anon #2,

I don't know why he calls them diametrical opposites. They are different, to be sure, but opposite? Besides he leaves no doubt that he thinks that PREDICTOR is the best predictive model that he offers. But since I have been observing I thing the overall rating, the one that averages the PREDICTOR and ELO_CHESS, is probably the best.