Sunday, October 21, 2007

Sagarin vs. Vegas, Weekly Results



For an explanation of the Sagarin System I am using, click this link. Vegas spreads are from Pinnacle Sports and are published here.

This week's results:

South Florida at Rutgers
Vegas Favorite: USF -2
Sagarin suggested: Take USF and lay the 2 points

Result: Rutgers wins outright, -$110

Miami at FSU
Vegas Favorite: FSU -5.0
Sagarin suggested: Take FSU and lay the 5 points

Result: Miami wins outright, -$110

Florida at Kentucky
Vegas Favorite: UF -6.5
Sagarin suggested: Take the Wildcats and the 6.5 points

Result: Florida wins and covers, -$110

USC at Notre Dame
Vegas Favorite: USC -17.5
Sagarin suggested: Take Notre Dame and the 17.5 points

Result: USC easily wins and covers, -$110

Texas Tech at Missouri
Vegas Favorite: Missouri -3.5
Sagarin suggested: The spread is too high, take Texas Tech and the 3.5 points

Result: Missouri easily wins and covers, -$110
Weekly Result Summary: After having his best week last week, Sag has his worst one this week, going 0-5. We would have lost $550.

Year to Date Summary: Following the advice of Sagarin's predictor model we'd be 12-23 and down $1,330.

Going the other way: If we had gone against Sag's advice in the 35 games selected we'd be 23-12 and ahead by the tidy sum of $980.

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

Missing a minus sign in the USC-ND result.

Henry Gomez said...

Thanks. Fixed.

banjo picker said...

hey gomez, post the line on OSU vs papa joe me smells upset like '05. a game of more significance than those mentioned above.

Henry Gomez said...

will do.

Jason said...

Heh... I remain amused by how bad the results for this have been. Granted, only looking at 5 games a week can lead to some skewed results, but it's still as valid a sample method as any.

Henry Gomez said...

Ideally I'd use a bigger sample size but it's time consuming and I think it would get boring for the readers.

I'll do all the bowl games when that rolls around.

In case your curious, the games I try to select are usually driven by several factors. First is games the Gators are playing in, for obvious reasons. Then I look at rivalries and games that interest me for other reasons. Illinois intrigues me because of Zook and which team will show up on any given saturday.

I try to get at least 1 Big 10 Match up in there and one PAC 10 match up.

If the result of the calculation is too close to the actual vegas spread I'll pick another game. In other words I try to pick games that Sag's computer gives clear direction.

Another thing to note is that lines change. I don't track line changes. The lines I show are the current lines when I do the calculation which would be when the bet is supposedly made.

If Sag continues to be this bad, next year I may consider actually using this to bet (the other side of course).

Anonymous said...

The chances are probably greater that an alligator will mate with a mallard and a Gatorduck will actually exist.

Whereupon said Gatorduck will come into the possession of a staunch anti-communist of Cuban descent who will train it to fly from Miami to Cuba and finish off Castro once and for all in a horrible melee of death rolls, flying feathers, quacking and cigar smoke.

Muerte para el legarto!