Wednesday, August 15, 2007

South Carolina to win SEC East?

In glancing at the “Expert Picks” on ESPN.com, Rece Davis’s selection of South Carolina as the SEC East champion really stood out to me.

Mostly because of its near impossibility.

Now, I’m not saying it cannot happen. I’ll never put anything past Steve Spurrier. However, let us look at the what the Gamecocks would have to overcome to be SEC East champion.

Since the advent of the modern SEC Championship system in 1992, only 3 teams have won the SEC East – Florida, Georgia and Tennessee. The number of East titles for each is –

Florida – 8
Tennessee – 4
Georgia – 3

Of those winners, the following were the SEC records and number of times occurring –

8-0: 3 times
7-1: 9 times
6-2: 3 times

Obviously, it takes a 7-1 record on average to win the SEC East.

Now, lets look at South Carolina’s SEC schedule this year-

September 8 at Georgia
September 22 at LSU
September 29 Mississippi State
October 4 Kentucky
October 20 Vanderbilt
October 27 at Tennessee
November 3 at Arkansas
November 10 Florida

Unfortunately for the Gamecocks, they have almost every “easier” game at home (except Florida).

For argument’s sake, let’s give them “sure wins” against Mississippi State and Vanderbilt. Thus, in order to get to the minimum 6-2 record to even compete in the East, they need to win 4 of the following 6 –

at Georiga
at LSU
Kentucky
at Tennessee
at Arkansas
Florida

Plus, since the SEC East winner usually has a 7-1 record, in all likelihood they need to win 5 of these 6 games.

Arguably, the 2 games South Carolina is most likely to lose are the first two against UGA and LSU. If that occurs (and odds say it will), they will have to win EVERY ONE OF THEIR REMAINING SEC GAMES to have even an outside shot at going to Atlanta.

In other words, unless the Gamecocks can win in Athens and Baton Rouge, their SEC East quest is over before October begins.

That seems the most likely scenario.

2 comments:

Tom said...

Well we kicked UGA's butt and have LSU in our sites. Granted, we need a little devine intervention but more maricalious things have happened.

Tom said...

PS: I went to LSU, not USC.
That's why my spelling ain't good.